Potential health and economic impact associated with achieving risk factor control in Chinese adults with diabetes: a microsimulation modelling study

Background

The prevalence of diabetes has risen sharply in China. Improving modifiable risk factors such as glycaemia and blood pressure could substantially reduce disease burden and treatment costs to achieve a healthier China by 2030.

Methods

We used a nationally representative population-based survey of adults with diabetes in 31 provinces in mainland China to assess the prevalence of risk factor control. We adopted a microsimulation approach to estimate the impact of improved control of blood pressure and glycaemia on mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and healthcare cost. We applied the validated CHIME diabetes outcomes model over a 10-year time horizon. Baseline scenario of status quo was evaluated against alternative strategies based on World Health Organization and Chinese Diabetes Society guidelines.

Findings

Among 24,319 survey participants with diabetes (age 30-70), 69.1% (95% CI: 67.7-70.5) achieved optimal diabetes control (HbA1c <7% [53 mmol/mol]), 27.7% [26.1-29.3] achieved blood pressure control (<130/80 mmHg) and 20.1% (18.6-21.6) achieved both targets. Achieving 70% control rate for people with diabetes could reduce deaths before age 70 by 7.1% (5.7-8.7), reduce medical costs by 14.9% (12.3-18.0), and gain 50.4 QALYs (44.8-56.0) per 1000 people over 10 years compared to the baseline status quo. The largest health gains were for strategies including strict blood pressure control of 130/80 mmHg, particularly in rural areas.

Interpretation

Based on a nationally representative survey, few adults with diabetes in China achieved optimal control of glycaemia and blood pressure. Substantial health gains and economic savings are potentially achievable with better risk factor control especially in rural settings.

Funding

Chinese Central Government, Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [27112518].

Umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry as a labor admission test

Doppler ultrasound of the umbilical artery flow velocity waveform was studied prospectively as an admission test at the labor ward. Recordings were made in 575 women in various stages of labor before, during, and after uterine contractions, and evaluated in relation to intrapartum and fetal outcome variables. No association was found between abnormal flow velocity waveforms and cord complications, meconium-stained amniotic fluid, or abnormal fetal heart rate tracing, nor was there any association with operative delivery for fetal distress or low Apgar scores at 1 and 5 minutes. Small for gestational age fetuses had significantly more abnormal flow velocity waveforms than appropriate for gestational age fetuses, and so had those with umbilical artery acidemia compared with those with normal pH. The results indicate that Doppler recording of the umbilical artery flow velocity waveform as an admission test at the labor ward is not a good predictor of fetal distress in an unselected population.