A robust method for shift detection in time series

We present a robust and nonparametric test for the presence of a changepoint in a time series, based on the two-sample Hodges–Lehmann estimator. We develop new limit theory for a class of statistics based on two-sample U-quantile processes in the case of short-range dependent observations. Using this theory, we derive the asymptotic distribution of our test statistic under the null hypothesis of a constant level. The proposed test shows better overall performance under normal, heavy-tailed and skewed distributions than several other modifications of the popular cumulative sums test based on U-statistics, one-sample U-quantiles or M-estimation. The new theory does not involve moment conditions, so any transform of the observed process can be used to test the stability of higher-order characteristics such as variability, skewness and kurtosis.

Weak convergence of the empirical process of intermittent maps in 𝕃2 under long-range dependence

We study the behavior of the empirical distribution function of iterates of intermittent maps in the Hilbert space of square integrable functions with respect to Lebesgue measure. In the long-range dependent case, we prove that the empirical distribution function, suitably normalized, converges to a degenerate stable process, and we give the corresponding almost sure result. We apply the results to the convergence of the Wasserstein distance between the empirical measure and the invariant measure. We also apply it to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding Cramér–von-Mises statistic.