A35 FORECASTING THE INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A CANADIAN NATION-WIDE ANALYSIS

Background

Canada is currently in the third epidemiological stage in the evolution of IBD: compounding prevalence. A high incidence of IBD, in conjunction with low mortality, leads to a steadily rising prevalence over time. By understanding historical epidemiological trends, we can forecast incidence and prevalence into the future to inform healthcare systems in Canada of the rising burden of IBD to society.

Purpose

To analyze past epidemiological trends in order to forecast the overall incidence and prevalence of IBD, Crohn’s disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC) and stratified by age (<18, 18-64, 65+).

Method

Canadian population-based administrative data was acquired from: AB, BC, SK, MB, QC, and ON. Data were age and sex standardized to the matching year and provincial data aggregated into a representative sample of the Canadian population for prevalence (2002-2014) and incidence (2007-2014: 5-year washout period). Incidence and prevalence (per 100,000 persons) were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), using Canadian population estimates from Statistics Canada for IBD, CD, UC (IBD-unclassifiable+UC). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were created, and rates forecasted from 2014 to 2035 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Poisson (or negative binomial) for incidence and log binomial regression for prevalence estimated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with 95% CIs, of the forecasted data.

Result(s)

The 2014 incidence of IBD in Canada was 28.4 per 100,000 (95%CI: 27.8, 29.0) and forecasted to significantly increase (AAPC: 0.58%; 95%CI: 0.04, 1.04) from 30.0 per 100,000 in 2023 to 32.1 (95%PI: 27.9, 36.3) in 2035. Pediatric onset IBD was 13.9 per 100,000 (95%CI: 13.0, 14.9) in 2014 and is forecasted to significantly increase to 18.0 per 100,000 (95%PI: 15.7, 20.2) in 2035 with an AAPC of 1.23% (95%CI: 0.76, 1.63). Adult and elderly onset incidence rates were forecasted to remain stable. Prevalence of IBD increased between 2002 (389 per 100,000) and 2014 (636 per 100,000) and is forecasted to continue to climb by an AAPC of 2.44% (95%CI: 2.34, 2.53). In 2023, the prevalence of IBD is 825 per 100,000. By 2035 prevalence is forecasted to climb to 1075 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1047, 1103) with 470,000 Canadians living with IBD. Prevalence across all age strata were forecasted to significantly increase. The highest AAPC was seen in the elderly (2.76%; 95%CI: 2.73, 2.79) with a prevalence of 841 per 100,000 (95%CI: 834, 849) in 2014 and forecasted to climb to 1534 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1519, 1550) in 2035.

Image

Conclusion(s)

Incidence of IBD continues to rise in Canada, driven by pediatric-onset IBD. In 2023, over 320,000 Canadians (0.83%) will be living with IBD. By 2035 prevalence will exceed 1% of the population with approximately 470,000 individuals in Canada with IBD. Future research should establish the environmental determinates of IBD that may influence temporal trends in the incidence of IBD, while healthcare systems adapt to the compounding prevalence of IBD.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR, Other

Please indicate your source of funding;

The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc., L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

A210 THE BURDEN OF IBD HOSPITALIZATION IN CANADA: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT AND FUTURE BURDEN IN A NATION-WIDE ANALYSIS

Background

Hospitalizations pose a significant burden on both the individual and the healthcare system. Those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at increased risk of hospitalization as compared to the general population due to flaring of disease activity and complications related to IBD. The advent of biologics over the past twenty years may have influenced the rates of hospitalization for IBD.

Purpose

To assess current and forecast the overall hospitalization rates of those with IBD stratified by types of hospitalizations (all cause hospitalizations, IBD-related, and IBD-specific).

Method

Population-based administrative data on hospitalization of IBD (2002-2014) were obtained from: AB, BC, MB, and SK. Data were age and sex standardized to the matching year and aggregated into a representative sample of the Canadian population. Hospitalization rates were assessed as follows: 1. All cause hospitalizations: all admissions regardless of indication; 2. IBD-specific: an admission directly resulting from IBD (e.g., IBD-flare); 3. IBD-related: an admission for IBD, or a symptom or comorbidity associated with IBD (e.g. rheumatoid arthritis). Using prevalence estimates from the provinces, hospitalization rates (per 100 persons with IBD) were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were created to estimate number of hospitalizations and corresponding prevalence to forecast hospitalization rates to 2030 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Poisson (or negative binomial) regression estimated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with 95% CIs, of the forecasted data.

Result(s)

In 2002 there were 35.3 per 100 (95%CI: 34.7, 35.9) all cause hospitalizations for IBD patients and this decreased to 24.9 per 100 (24.5, 25.2) in 2014. Similar trends were seen for IBD-specific hospitalizations [16.8 per 100 (95%CI: 16.4, 17.2) in 2002 to 8.7 per 100 (95%CI: 8.5, 9.0) in 2014] and IBD-related (22.6 per 100 (95%CI: 22.1, 23.1) in 2002 to 13.4 per 100 (95%CI: 13.2, 13.7) in 2014). When forecasted out to 2030 all hospitalization types were significantly decreasing—the AAPC for all cause hospitalizations was -2.12% (95%CI: -2.31, -1.93), -3.77% (95%CI: -4.63, -3.08) for IBD-specific, and -3.09% (95%CI: -3.65, -2.62) for IBD-related. By 2030, the rates of hospitalization are forecasted to be 17.0 per 100 (95%PI: 16.2, 17.9), 4.6 per 100 (95%PI: 3.7, 5.4), and 7.9 per 100 (95%PI: 6.9, 8.9) for all cause, IBD-specific, and IBD-related, respectively.

Image

Conclusion(s)

In Canada, rates of hospitalizations for those with IBD have decreased from 2002 to 2014. The use of anti-TNF therapy in conjunction with the evolution of clinical monitoring, management and guidelines, likely has contributed to dropping hospitalization rates. Forecast models estimate a continued drop in hospitalization rates out to 2030. Importantly, healthcare resource planning should account for the shift from hospital-based to clinic-centric models of IBD care.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc.,, L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

A169 THE DIRECT COSTS OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN CANADA: A POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL AND CURRENT COSTS

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a costly disease to manage due to hospitalizations, regular ambulatory monitoring, and expensive pharmaceutical therapies. While hospitalization rates have fallen, the increased use of biologics have escalated the cost of care to the healthcare system.

Purpose

To assess historical direct healthcare costs of the IBD population in Canada.

Method

Population-based administrative costing data were obtained from: Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba. Costs were calculated based on administrative data (2009 to 2016) which captured: hospitalizations, physician costs, ambulatory care such as: emergency visits, day surgery, and colonoscopy (AB only), and medication costs of IBD-specific medications, such as: mesalamine, biologics, steroids, and immunomodulators. Costs were converted to 2020 dollars using the consumer price index. Average annual cost per person (ACPP) was calculated for each province. Using province specific IBD prevalence estimates these ACPP were meta-analyzed to obtain the annual weighted costs, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and these costs underwent meta-regression to ascertain the average annual change in cost per year. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was created to estimate the ACPP in 2023 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Canada-wide total direct care costs of IBD patients, in billions (B), were calculated using the ACPP, Canada-specific IBD prevalence estimates (historical and forecasted), and total Canadian population calculations from Statistics Canada (historical and forecasted).

Result(s)

In 2009 the ACPP was $7000 (95%CI: 5389, 8610), representing $1.18B (95%CI: 0.91B, 1.45B) in direct healthcare costs in Canada for all IBD patients. The ACPP in 2016 was increased to $10,336 (95%CI: 6803, 13869), which equates to $2.37B (95%CI: 1.56B, 3.18B) per year in direct healthcare costs. From 2009 to 2016, the ACPP increased an average of $450 (95%CI: 132, 767) per year. If these historical trends continue to 2023 the ACPP is forecasted to be $13,333 (95%PI: 12827, 13839) per person per year. The largest contributor to these costs is medications—accounting for an estimated 50% of the total costs of IBD patients.

Image

Conclusion(s)

The direct healthcare cost of IBD has risen steadily from 2009 to 2016 when the healthcare system spent over $10,000 per person with IBD and $2.37B nationwide. The primary driver of costs is medical management. Forecast models estimate that the annual cost may be over $13,000 per person in 2023. However, these estimates do not account for advent and increased uptake of novel biologics and small molecules, nor the downward cost pressure of biosimilars. These costs are those paid directly by the healthcare system and do not account for those born by the individual—it is estimated that the true cost of IBD (direct and indirect) is much higher.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc.,, L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda