Trends in mortality from aortic stenosis in Europe: 2000–2017

Background

Trends in mortality from aortic stenosis across Europe are not well understood, especially given the significant growth in transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in the last 10 years.

Purpose

To describe trends in mortality from aortic stenosis in European countries from 2000 to 2017.

Methods

Age-standardised death rates were extracted from the World Health Organisation Mortality Database, using the International Classification of Diseases 10th edition code for non-rheumatic aortic stenosis for those aged >45 years between 2000 and 2017. The UK and countries from the European Union with at least 1,000,000 inhabitants and at least 50% available datapoints over the study period were included: a total of 23 countries. Trends were described using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

No reductions in mortality were demonstrated across all countries 2000–2017 (Figure 1). Large increases in mortality were found for Croatia, Poland and Slovakia for both sexes (>300% change). Mortality plateaued in Germany from 2008 in females and 2012 in males, whilst mortality in the Netherlands declined for both sexes from 2007. Mortality differences between the sexes were observed, with greater mortality for males than females across most countries.

Conclusions

Mortality from aortic stenosis has increased across Europe from 2000 to 2017. There are, however, sizable differences in mortality trends between Eastern and Western European countries. Significant plateauing or declining mortality was observed for recent years in countries with greater access to TAVR, whilst increasing trends were observed in countries with the least TAVR use. The need for health resource planning strategies to specifically target AS, particularly given the expected increase with aging populations, is highlighted.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1. Joinpoint regression analysis for trends in age-standardised death rates from non-rheumatic aortic stenosis for those aged >45 years in Europe from 2000 to 2017. Clear squares indicate males; filled circles indicate females. The lines (dotted for males, solid for females) represent modelled trends based on joinpoint data.

Trends in infective endocarditis mortality in the United Kingdom and EU 15+ countries between 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases database

Background

Infective Endocarditis (IE) is a relatively uncommon but lethal condition, with no convincing evidence to date of improving mortality trends (1). The epidemiology of IE is complex, driven by a wide range of constantly evolving factors. While marked international variation has been recently reported (2), temporal trends in mortality over recent decades remain unclear.

Purpose

To describe trends in IE mortality in high income countries over the last 30 years.

Methods

Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for IE, stratified by sex, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (3) between 1990 and 2019. The United Kingdom and selected countries with comparable health expenditure (EU15+ countries) were included. Relative changes in ASMR over the observation period were determined and trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

Between 1990–2019 ASMR from IE increased for both sexes in all included countries except Finland (−20.1% in males, −15.1% in females) and Austria (−8.98% in males, −22.6% in females). The largest increase in ASMR in males was observed in Greece (+197%), while the largest increase in females was observed in Italy (246%). Joinpoint regression analysis identified multiple significant trends within this observation period (Figure 1; clear squares indicate males, filled circles indicate females and lines represent modelled trends based on joinpoint data). At the end of the observation period the Netherlands had the highest ASMR in both males and females (2.28/100,000 in males and 2.37/100,000 in females), while Finland had the lowest ASMR in both males and females (0.45/100,000 and 0.23/100,000 respectively).

Conclusions

Significant international variation in IE mortality rates were observed. While mortality from IE has generally increased over the last 30 years, recent data suggest this trend may now be plateauing or even reversing in certain countries.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1

O48 Incongruous trends in peripheral arterial disease and amputation in Australia

Introduction

We aimed to compare the incidence trends for peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and lower extremity amputation (LEA) in Australia with European Union (EU) 15+ countries.

Method

For the years 1990–2017, we extracted PAOD and LEA incidence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study and compared trends across EU15+ countries (19 countries with similar health expenditure—including Australia, the US and the UK).

Result

In 2017, the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) for PAOD was lower in Australia than any other EU15+ country for males (90.0/100,000) and third lowest in females (99.9/100,000) (only females in Norway and Spain had lower 2017 ASIRs for PAD). However for LEA, the 2017 ASIRs were higher in Australia for both sexes than in any other EU15+ country (male 119.8/100,000, female 78.0/100,000).

Furthermore, contrasting and anomalous time trends in the incidence of PAOD and LEA were observed in Australia between 1990–2017. The PAOD ASIR decreased over the 28-year period for both males (-16.5%) and females (-17.4%), whereas the LEA ASIR increased over the same time period for both sexes (males +12.5%, females +10.3%). Given the frequency with which LEAs are precipitated by PAOD, these divergent trends were unexpected, especially within a developed country such as Australia.

Conclusion

Our data raises the concern that the true incidence of PAOD in Australia is under-diagnosed, with at-risk patients potentially being recognised late in the disease-process, manifesting as high amputation rates relative to countries with similar health expenditure.

Take-home Message

Australia has anomalous trends in amputation and peripheral arterial disease when compared with other countries with similar health expenditure. Our data raises the concern that the true incidence of PAOD in Australia is under-diagnosed, with at-risk patients potentially being recognised late in the disease-process, manifesting as high amputation rates relative to countries with similar health expenditure.

Mortality from abdominal aortic aneurysm: trends in European Union 15+ countries from 1990 to 2017

BACKGROUND

This observational study assessed trends in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) death rates in European Union (EU) 15+ countries for the years 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study Global Health Data Exchange. Trends were analysed using joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2017, ASDRs from AAA decreased in all 19 EU15+ countries for women, and in 18 of 19 countries for men. Increasing AAA mortality was observed only for men in Greece (+5·3 per cent). The largest relative decreases in ASDR between 1990 and 2017 were observed in Australia (men -65·6 per cent, women -50·4 per cent) and Canada (men -60·8 per cent, women -48·6 per cent). Over the 28-year interval, the smallest decreases in ASDR for women were noted in Greece (-2·3 per cent) and in Italy (-2·5 per cent). In 2017, the highest mortality rates were observed in the UK for both men and women (7·5 per 100 000 and 3·7 per 100 000 respectively). The lowest ASDR was observed in Portugal for men (2·8 per 100 000) and in Spain for women (1·0 per 100 000). ASDRs for AAA in 2017 were higher for men than women in all 19 EU15+ countries. The most recent trends demonstrated increasing AAA ASDRs in 14 of 19 countries for both sexes; the increases were relatively small compared with the improvements in the preceding years.

CONCLUSION

This observational study identified decreasing mortality from AAA across EU15+ countries since 1990. The most recent trends demonstrated relatively small increases in AAA mortality across the majority of EU15+ countries since 2012.

Trends in malignant melanoma mortality in 31 countries from 1985 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Malignant melanoma (MM) causes the highest absolute number of deaths among skin cancers. An up-to-date analysis of international MM mortality trends is required for assessing the burden of disease, and may support the assessment of the effectiveness of new diagnostic, therapeutic and preventative strategies.

OBJECTIVES

To report MM mortality trends between 1985 and 2015 using the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used country-level MM mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database for all countries with high usability death registration data. Mortality trends were described using Joinpoint regression modelling.

RESULTS

Thirty-one countries met the inclusion criteria. All countries, except the Czech Republic, demonstrated increased age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) in males over the observation period. More countries exhibited decreased or stable MM mortality in females. The median mortality rate for 2013-2015 was 2·57 deaths per 100 000 for males and 1·55 per 100 000 for females. Australia and Norway had the highest ASDRs for males (5·72 per 100 000 and 4·55 per 100 000, respectively). Norway and Slovenia had the highest ASDRs for females (3·02 per 100 000 and 2·58 per 100 000, respectively). MM mortality was greater for males than females in all countries, with sex disparity increasing across the period. Disparity in mortality between older and younger cohorts in several countries was also found.

CONCLUSIONS

An overall increase in MM mortality over the past 30 years was observed. However, there was notable variation in mortality trends between countries, as well as between males and females, and between different age groups.

Performance of SAPS II and SAPS III scores in post-cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Cardiac arrest is a major public health issue affecting an estimated 300,000 patients in the United States each year. The American Heart Association has recommended the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS) to assess severity of illness and to predict outcomes in the post-cardiac arrest population. Our objective was to determine if SAPS II and SAPS III scores predict outcomes in post-cardiac arrest patients.

METHODS

We performed an observational study of patients suffering cardiac arrest with return of spontaneous circulation. Data were collected prospectively and recorded in the Utstein style. SAPS II and SAPS III scores were calculated for each subject. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the calculated severity of illness score and in-hospital mortality and poor neurologic outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 274 subjects were identified for analysis. SAPS II was a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.07) and poor-neurologic outcome (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.04-1.08). SAPS III was a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.02-1.06) and poor neurologic outcome (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.02-1.05). Both scores had moderate ability to discriminate survivors from non-survivors (SAPS II AUC: 0.70; SAPS III AUC: 0.66), and good neurologic outcome from poor neurologic outcome (SAPS II AUC: 0.71; SAPS III AUC: 0.65).

CONCLUSION

SAPS II and SAPS III scores have only moderate discrimination and are not clinically relevant tools to predict outcome in post-cardiac arrest patients. Further study is needed to identify a more reliable severity of illness score in the post-arrest population.