An observational analysis of trends in rheumatic heart disease incidence and mortality in EU15+ countries over 29 years

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a debilitating sequela of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), caused by Group A streptococcus (GAS) infection. Repeated episodes of ARF results in valvular damage over time. As a preventable disorder which was once common worldwide, RHD has largely been eradicated in affluent nations due to widespread availability of penicillin, improvement in socioeconomic standards and advancements in health and social infrastructures. However, it has been speculated that the global refugee crisis, especially in Europe, might contribute to a resurgence of RHD cases in these regions.

Purpose

This observational study aimed to analyse trends in RHD incidence and mortality rates in European Union 15+ (EU15+) over a 29-year period.

Methods

Data was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. Age-standardised mortality and incidence rates for RHD were extracted for the EU15+ countries for the years 1990–2019. Trends were subsequently analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

Over the 29-year period, an overall declining trend in RHD incidence and mortality across EU 15+ nations was observed. The United Kingdom demonstrated the largest decrease in RHD incidence amongst females (−54.9%) and Finland amongst males (−55.3%). Both RHD incidence and mortality were higher among females compared to males across EU15+ countries over the observed period. The most recent incidence trends, starting predominantly after 2014, demonstrated a rise in RHD incidence in most countries. For both sexes, increases were seen in Australia, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and USA. For males specifically, increase in RHD incidence was seen in Spain, and Finland, and for females only in Canada and Ireland. The recent increasing RHD incidence rates ranged from +0.4% to + 24.7% for males and +0.6% to +11.4% for females.

Conclusion

Whilst overall there are decreases in incidence and mortality from RHD, we observe more than half of EU15+ countries have increasing incidence trends in RHD in recent years. This increasing trend primarily started after 2014, overlapping with the start of the European migration crisis. Although speculative, disparities in access to healthcare for migrants, amongst other socioeconomic factors, may be potential causes; subsequently, further efforts by governments and public health officials are required to recognise and control the resurgence of RHD in high income nations.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

12 Trends in Neck of Femur Fracture Incidence in EU15+ Countries From 1990–2017

Background

Neck of femur fractures (NOFF) pose significant socio-economic costs to society with a high degree of morbidity and mortality. Its incidence rate has been collated within the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database; however, to date, no comparison across countries has been reported.

Method

NOFF age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) per 100,000 population were extracted from the GBD database for European Union (EU) 15+ countries over the period 1990 to 2017. Joinpoint regression analysis of the data identified trends in ASIR and associated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). These were analysed by specified timeframe, country, and gender.

Results

Of the 19 EU15+ countries, 11 (58%) had overall increases in NOFF ASIRs in 2017 compared to 1990. The median ASIRs were 240/100,000 and 322/100,000 for males and females, respectively, in 1990. By 2017, this had increased to 259/100,000 and 325/100,000, respectively. Females consistently had relatively higher NOFF ASIRs with a median gender fracture gap of 62/100,000 in 2017. Males had a higher percentage change in increasing ASIRs, with a smaller percentage change in decreasing ASIRs for all included countries. The highest national ASIRs was observed in Australia, followed by Finland and Belgium. Conversely the Mediterranean countries demonstrated the lowest ASIRs, closely followed by the USA.

Conclusions

Despite significant advances in primary and secondary hip fracture prevention strategies over the 28-year study period, significant increases in NOFF ASIRs among most EU15+ countries were observed, especially with respect to gender.

Trends in incidence and mortality from non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease across europe, over the past three decades

Background

Valvular heart disease is common globally; mitral regurgitation is the most common valve pathology in the general population and subsequently the second most frequent indication for valve surgery in Europe. Whilst the European epidemiology of aortic stenosis is well elucidated in the literature, no Europe-wide study has been undertaken to identify trends in incidence and mortality secondary to non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease.

Purpose

Our aim is to describe trends in degenerative mitral valve disease incidence and mortality throughout Europe from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We performed a temporal analysis of data deposited in the Global Burden of Disease Study Database across the European Union. We extracted age-standardised incidence and age-standardised mortality rates for 20 member states from the database. We graphically inspected the data and performed Joinpoint regression analysis to detect and summarise periods of significant change. These periods were described using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

Results

Trends in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were heterogenous amongst the 20 member states included. A gender disparity in mortality rates favouring males were present in Austria, Belgium, Greece, Hungary and the Netherlands throughout the time period studied. Except for Hungary, this disparity was not reflected in the incidence rates for the aforementioned countries. Incidence rates of degenerative mitral valve disease in 2019 were highest in Italy for both males and females with 90.6 and 140.1 cases per 100,000 respectively. Mortality rates in 2019 were highest in the Netherlands for both males in females with 1.7 and 2.0 cases per 100,000 respectively; this was preceded by a downwards trend in mortality with an EAPC of −7.3% and −8.5% respectively. Other notable inflection points in incidence trends were observed in Italy, with an EAPC of −4.9% females between 1994 to 2004 followed by an EAPC of 0.8% between 2009 to 2019.

Conclusion

No overall trends in non-rheumatic mitral valve disease were observed throughout Europe, but gender disparities and some notable deviations in incidence and mortality rates from the European median were identified. Overall, however, incidence rates remained static in most countries studied despite the ubiquity of colour flow doppler echocardiography. Further analysis of the burden of mitral valve disease can help elucidate this geographical variation.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

1447 Trends in Lower Extremity Amputation Incidence in European Union 15+ Countries 1990-2017

Aim

To assess trends in lower extremity amputation (LEA) incidence in European Union (EU15+) countries for the years 1990-2017.

Method

This was an observational study using data obtained from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Age standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) for LEA (stratified into toe amputation, and LEA proximal to toes) were extracted from the GBD Results Tool (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) for EU15+ countries for each of the years 1990-2017. Trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

Between 1990 and 2017, variable trends in the incidence of LEA were observed in EU15+ countries. For LEAs proximal to toes, increasing trends were observed in six of 19 countries and decreasing trends in nine of 19 countries, with four countries showing varying trends between sexes. For toe amputation, increasing trends were observed in eight of 19 countries and decreasing trends in eight of 19 countries for both sexes, with three countries showing varying trends between sexes. Australia had the highest ASIRs for both sexes in all LEAs at all time points, with steadily increasing trends. The USA observed the greatest reduction in all LEAs in both sexes over the time period analysed (LEAs proximal to toes: female patients 22.93%, male patients 29.76%; toe amputation: female patients 29.93%, male patients 32.67%). The greatest overall increase in incidence was observed in Australia.

Conclusions

Variable trends in LEA incidence were observed across EU15+ countries. These trends do not reflect previously observed reductions in incidence of PAOD over the same time period.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

P5664Trends in incidence and mortality from atrial fibrillation across europe, 1990 - 2017

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common arrhythmias found in the general population, carrying risk of associated cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, and presenting a significant global health burden. Better understanding of its epidemiology may have public health implications.

Purpose

To describe trends in AF incidence and mortality throughout Europe from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

We performed a temporal analysis of data deposited in the Global Burden of Disease Study Database for countries across the European Union. We extracted age-standardised incidence and age-standardised death rates from the database and graphically inspected the data, as well as summarised the changes in trends using percentage change from the beginning of the observation period (1990) to the end of the observation period (2017).

Results

A total of 24 member states were included. In 1990, the overall median male incidence and mortality from AF were 81.4 cases per 100,000 and 5.0 deaths per 100,000 respectively. The corresponding female median incidence and mortality in 1990 were 66.3 cases per 100,000 and 7.3 deaths per 100,000 respectively. Mortality rates in 2017 were highest in Sweden and Germany. There was an increasing trend in all countries between 1990 and 2017 for both incidence and mortality. For men, the countries with the greatest percentage increases in incidence were Slovenia (+77%) and Poland (+71%). For women, the greatest increases in AF incidence were in Poland (+58%) and Estonia (+48%). The greatest percentage increases in AF related mortality were, in men, Estonia (+195%) and Sweden (+145%), and, in women, Greece (+151%) and Bulgaria (+147%).

Conclusion

AF represents a significant health burden in an aging population; general increases in incidence rates may suggest improvement in detection throughout Europe. However, AF associated mortality is more pronounced in Western Europe.

The association of lactate and vasopressor need for mortality prediction in survivors of cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Currently there are few tools available for clinicians to predict outcomes in cardiac arrest survivors. Our objective was to determine if the combination of simple clinical parameters (initial blood lactate and vasopressor use) can predict outcome in post-cardiac arrest patients.

METHODS

The design was a retrospective medical record review. The study was carried on in two urban, tertiary-care, university teaching hospitals. As for patients, inclusion criteria were: 1) age ≥18 years; 2) non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with return of spontaneous circulation; 3) lactic acid measured within one hour of return of circulation. No interventions was performed.

RESULTS

Patients were divided into groups based on two variables: 1) vasopressor status (receipt of vasopressors vs. no vasopressors); and 2) initial blood lactate (categories defined as lactate <5 mmol/L, lactate 5 to 10 mmol/L, lactate ≥10 mmol/L); 128 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients met study inclusion criteria. Overall mortality was 71% (95%CI 63-79%). Patients who received vasopressors had significantly higher mortality rates compared to patients who did not receive vasopressors (80% vs. 52%; P=0.002). A stepwise increase in mortality is associated with increasing lactate levels (39% lactate <5 mmol/L, 67% lactate 5 mmol/L to10 mmol/L, and 92% lactate ≥10 mmol/L; P<0.001). The AUC for our model was 0.82.

CONCLUSION

The combination of two clinical parameters, vasopressor need and lactic acid levels, is an accurate severity of illness classification system and can predict mortality in patients following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Prospective validation of these variables in post-cardiac arrest is needed.