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Büntgen U, Allen K, Anchukaitis KJ, Arseneault D, Boucher É, Bräuning A, Chatterjee S, Cherubini P, Churakova Sidorova OV, Corona C, Gennaretti F, Grießinger J, Guillet S, Guiot J, Gunnarson B, Helama S, Hochreuther P, Hughes MK, Huybers P, Kirdyanov AV, Krusic PJ, Ludescher J, Meier WJH, Myglan VS, Nicolussi K, Oppenheimer C, Reinig F, Salzer MW, Seftigen K, Stine AR, Stoffel M, St George S, Tejedor E, Trevino A, Trouet V, Wang J, Wilson R, Yang B, Xu G, Esper J. The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3411. [PMID: 34099683 PMCID: PMC8184857 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2020] [Accepted: 05/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ulf Büntgen
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. .,Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland. .,Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic. .,Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Kathy Allen
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Richmond, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Kevin J Anchukaitis
- School of Geography, Development, and Environment and Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Dominique Arseneault
- Department of Biology, Chemistry and Geography, University of Quebec in Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, Canada
| | - Étienne Boucher
- Department of Geography, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.,GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.,Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Achim Bräuning
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | | | - Paolo Cherubini
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Christophe Corona
- Université Clermont-Auvergne, Geolab UMR 6042 CNRS, Clermont-Ferrand, France.,Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Fabio Gennaretti
- GREMA and Forest Research Institute, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Amos, Canada
| | - Jussi Grießinger
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Sebastian Guillet
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Joel Guiot
- Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Coll France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Björn Gunnarson
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Samuli Helama
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Philipp Hochreuther
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Malcolm K Hughes
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Peter Huybers
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Alexander V Kirdyanov
- Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.,Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
| | - Paul J Krusic
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Josef Ludescher
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Wolfgang J-H Meier
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany
| | - Vladimir S Myglan
- Institute of Humanities, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
| | - Kurt Nicolussi
- Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Clive Oppenheimer
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, Cambridge, UK
| | - Frederick Reinig
- Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
| | - Matthew W Salzer
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Kristina Seftigen
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.,Department of Earth Sciences, Goteborg University, Goteborg, Sweden
| | - Alexander R Stine
- Department of Earth & Climate Sciences, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Markus Stoffel
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.,Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.,Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Scott St George
- Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Ernesto Tejedor
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany, NY, USA
| | - Aleyda Trevino
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Valerie Trouet
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - Jianglin Wang
- Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China.,CAS Centre for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,Qinghai Research Centre of Qilian Mountain National Park, Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability and Qinghai Normal University, Xining, China
| | - Rob Wilson
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, Scotland, UK.,Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Bao Yang
- Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China.,CAS Centre for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,Qinghai Research Centre of Qilian Mountain National Park, Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability and Qinghai Normal University, Xining, China
| | - Guobao Xu
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.,State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
| | - Jan Esper
- Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic.,Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
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Fan J, Meng J, Ludescher J, Chen X, Ashkenazy Y, Kurths J, Havlin S, Schellnhuber HJ. Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system. Phys Rep 2021; 896:1-84. [PMID: 33041465 PMCID: PMC7532523 DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2020.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, multiple interactions and complex structures of the Earth system, the understanding and, in particular, the prediction of such disruptive events represent formidable challenges to both scientific and policy communities. During the past years, the emergence and evolution of Earth system science has attracted much attention and produced new concepts and frameworks. Especially, novel statistical physics and complex networks-based techniques have been developed and implemented to substantially advance our knowledge of the Earth system, including climate extreme events, earthquakes and geological relief features, leading to substantially improved predictive performances. We present here a comprehensive review on the recent scientific progress in the development and application of how combined statistical physics and complex systems science approaches such as critical phenomena, network theory, percolation, tipping points analysis, and entropy can be applied to complex Earth systems. Notably, these integrating tools and approaches provide new insights and perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the Earth systems. The overall aim of this review is to offer readers the knowledge on how statistical physics concepts and theories can be useful in the field of Earth system science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingfang Fan
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Jun Meng
- School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Josef Ludescher
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
| | - Xiaosong Chen
- School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yosef Ashkenazy
- Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion 84990, Israel
| | - Jürgen Kurths
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- Department of Physics, Humboldt University, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- Lobachevsky University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhnij Novgorod 603950, Russia
| | - Shlomo Havlin
- Department of Physics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan 52900, Israel
| | - Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14412, Germany
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China
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