Survival Among Patients With High-Risk Gastrointestinal Cancers During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

Prior reports demonstrated that patients with cancer experienced worse outcomes from pandemic-related stressors and COVID-19 infection. Patients with certain malignant neoplasms, such as high-risk gastrointestinal (HRGI) cancers, may have been particularly affected.

Objective

To evaluate disruptions in care and outcomes among patients with HRGI cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic, assessing for signs of long-term changes in populations and survival.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data from the National Cancer Database to identify patients with HRGI cancer (esophageal, gastric, primary liver, or pancreatic) diagnosed between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Data were analyzed between August 23 and September 4, 2023.

Main Outcome and Measures

Trends in monthly new cases and proportions by stage in 2020 were compared with the prior 2 years. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression were used to assess 1-year mortality in 2020 compared with 2018 to 2019. Proportional monthly trends and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate 30-day and 90-day mortality in 2020 compared with prior years.

Results

Of the 156 937 patients included in this study, 54 994 (35.0%) were aged 60 to 69 years and 100 050 (63.8%) were men. There was a substantial decrease in newly diagnosed HRGI cancers in March to May 2020, which returned to prepandemic levels by July 2020. For stage, there was a proportional decrease in the diagnosis of stage I (-3.9%) and stage II (-2.3%) disease, with an increase in stage IV disease (7.1%) during the early months of the pandemic. Despite a slight decrease in 1-year survival rates in 2020 (50.7% in 2018 and 2019 vs 47.4% in 2020), survival curves remained unchanged between years (all P > .05). After adjusting for confounders, diagnosis in 2020 was not associated with increased 1-year mortality compared with 2018 to 2019 (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.01). The rates of 30-day (2.1% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019, and 2.1% in 2020) and 90-day (4.3% in 2018, 4.4% in 2019, and 4.6% in 2020) operative mortality also remained similar.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective cohort study, a period of underdiagnosis and increase in stage IV disease was observed for HRGI cancers during the pandemic; however, there was no change in 1-year survival or operative mortality. These results demonstrate the risks associated with gaps in care and the tremendous efforts of the cancer community to ensure quality care delivery during the pandemic. Future research should investigate long-term survival changes among all cancer types as additional follow-up data are accrued.

Survival outcomes used to validate version 9 of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system for appendiceal cancer

The standard for cancer staging in the United States for all cancer sites, including primary carcinomas of the appendix, is the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. AJCC staging criteria undergo periodic revisions, led by a panel of site-specific experts, to maintain contemporary staging definitions through the evaluation of new evidence. Since its last revision, the AJCC has restructured its processes to include prospectively collected data because large data sets have become increasingly robust and available over time. Thus survival analyses using AJCC eighth edition staging criteria were used to inform stage group revisions in the version 9 AJCC staging system, including appendiceal cancer. Although the current AJCC staging definitions were maintained for appendiceal cancer, incorporating survival analysis into the version 9 staging system provided unique insight into the clinical challenges in staging rare malignancies. This article highlights the critical clinical components of the now published version 9 AJCC staging system for appendix cancer, which (1) justified the separation of three different histologies (non-mucinous, mucinous, signet-ring cell) in terms of prognostic variance, (2) demonstrated the clinical implications and challenges in staging heterogeneous and rare tumors, and (3) emphasized the influence of data limitations on survival analysis for low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms.

Evaluating information loss in the National Cancer Database from cases lost to follow-up

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cancer registries must focus on data capture which returns value while reducing resource burden with minimal loss of data. Identifying the optimum length of follow-up data collection for patients with cancer achieves this goal.

METHODS

A two-step analysis using entropy calculations to assess information gain for each follow-up year, and second-order differences to compare survival outcomes between the defined follow-up periods and lifetime follow-up. A total of 391 567 adult cases, deidentified in the National Cancer Database and diagnosed in 1989. Comparisons examined a subset of 61 908 lung cancer cases, 48 387 colon and rectal cancer cases, and 64 134 breast cancer cases in adults. A total of 4133 pediatric cases were diagnosed in 1989 examining 1065 leukemia cases and 494 lymphoma cases.

RESULTS

Annual increases in information gain fell below 1% after 16 years of follow-up for adult cases and 9 years for pediatric cases. Comparison of second-order differences showed 62% of the comparisons were similar between 15 years and lifetime follow-up when examining restricted mean survival time. In addition, 90% of the comparisons were statistically similar when comparing hazard ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival analysis using 15 years postdiagnosis follow-up showed minimal differences in information gain compared to lifetime follow-up.