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Masselot P, Mistry M, Vanoli J, Schneider R, Iungman T, Garcia-Leon D, Ciscar JC, Feyen L, Orru H, Urban A, Breitner S, Huber V, Schneider A, Samoli E, Stafoggia M, de'Donato F, Rao S, Armstrong B, Nieuwenhuijsen M, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Gasparrini A. Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e271-e281. [PMID: 36934727 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00023-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. METHODS We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels. FINDINGS Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat. INTERPRETATION Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. FUNDING Medical Research Council of UK, the Natural Environment Research Council UK, the EU's Horizon 2020, and the EU's Joint Research Center.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Malcolm Mistry
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
| | - Jacopo Vanoli
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rochelle Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; ϕ-Lab, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy
| | - Tamara Iungman
- Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | - Luc Feyen
- Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Veronika Huber
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Evangelia Samoli
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesca de'Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mark Nieuwenhuijsen
- Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Mistry MN, Schneider R, Masselot P, Royé D, Armstrong B, Kyselý J, Orru H, Sera F, Tong S, Lavigne É, Urban A, Madureira J, García-León D, Ibarreta D, Ciscar JC, Feyen L, de Schrijver E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Pascal M, Tobias A, Guo Y, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Gasparrini A. Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality. Sci Rep 2022; 12:5178. [PMID: 35338191 PMCID: PMC8956721 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09049-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malcolm N Mistry
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.
| | - Rochelle Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,The Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK.,Ф-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.,CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,The Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.,Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G. Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.,School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.,Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Éric Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.,School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.,Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal.,EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - David García-León
- The Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Spain
| | - Dolores Ibarreta
- The Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Seville, Spain
| | | | - Luc Feyen
- The Joint Research Center (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Evan de Schrijver
- Graduate School of Health Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.,School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | | | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.,Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,The Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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Vousdoukas MI, Mentaschi L, Hinkel J, Ward PJ, Mongelli I, Ciscar JC, Feyen L. Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2119. [PMID: 32371866 PMCID: PMC7200758 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2019] [Accepted: 03/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe's coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe's coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jochen Hinkel
- Global Climate Forum, Adaptation and Social Learning, Neue Promenade 6, Berlin, 10178, Germany.,Division of Resource Economics at Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany
| | - Philip J Ward
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - Luc Feyen
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
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