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Flores BM, Montoya E, Sakschewski B, Nascimento N, Staal A, Betts RA, Levis C, Lapola DM, Esquível-Muelbert A, Jakovac C, Nobre CA, Oliveira RS, Borma LS, Nian D, Boers N, Hecht SB, Ter Steege H, Arieira J, Lucas IL, Berenguer E, Marengo JA, Gatti LV, Mattos CRC, Hirota M. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 2024; 626:555-564. [PMID: 38356065 PMCID: PMC10866695 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/16/2024]
Abstract
The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo M Flores
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
| | - Encarni Montoya
- Geosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Boris Sakschewski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Arie Staal
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Richard A Betts
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Carolina Levis
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
| | - David M Lapola
- Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Adriane Esquível-Muelbert
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Catarina Jakovac
- Department of Plant Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
| | - Carlos A Nobre
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Rafael S Oliveira
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Laura S Borma
- Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Da Nian
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas Boers
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Susanna B Hecht
- Luskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Hans Ter Steege
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Julia Arieira
- Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | | | - Erika Berenguer
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - José A Marengo
- Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, São José dos Campos, Brazil
- Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, UNESP/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
- Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Luciana V Gatti
- Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Caio R C Mattos
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Marina Hirota
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil.
- Group IpES, Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
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Albert JS, Carnaval AC, Flantua SGA, Lohmann LG, Ribas CC, Riff D, Carrillo JD, Fan Y, Figueiredo JJP, Guayasamin JM, Hoorn C, de Melo GH, Nascimento N, Quesada CA, Ulloa Ulloa C, Val P, Arieira J, Encalada AC, Nobre CA. Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon. Science 2023; 379:eabo5003. [PMID: 36701466 DOI: 10.1126/science.abo5003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.
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Affiliation(s)
- James S Albert
- Department of Biology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA
| | - Ana C Carnaval
- Department of Biology and Ph.D. Program in Biology, City University of New York (CUNY) and CUNY Graduate Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Suzette G A Flantua
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Lúcia G Lohmann
- Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Biociências, Departamento de Botânica, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Camila C Ribas
- Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Douglas Riff
- Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Juan D Carrillo
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg and Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Fribourg, Switzerland
| | - Ying Fan
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, NJ, USA
| | - Jorge J P Figueiredo
- Institute of Geoscience, Center of Mathematical and Earth Sciences, Universidade Federal Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Juan M Guayasamin
- Instituto Biósfera, Laboratorio de Biología Evolutiva, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Carina Hoorn
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Gustavo H de Melo
- Department of Geology, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil
| | | | - Carlos A Quesada
- Coordination for Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Research in Amazonia, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | | | - Pedro Val
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Queens College, CUNY, New York, NY, USA.,Ph.D. Program in Earth and Environmental Sciences, CUNY Graduate Center, New York, NY, USA.,Department of Geology, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG, Brazil
| | - Julia Arieira
- Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Andrea C Encalada
- Instituto Biósfera, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Carlos A Nobre
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, SP, Brazil
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