Multicentre derivation and validation of a simple predictive index for healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection

OBJECTIVES

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the most common cause of healthcare-associated infections in the United States. Despite well-established risk factors, little research has focused on use of these variables to identify a patient population at high risk for CDI to target with primary prevention strategies. A predictive index for healthcare-associated CDI could improve clinical care and guide research for primary prevention trials. Our objective was to develop a predictive index to identify patients at high risk for healthcare-associated CDI.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database analysis in a five-hospital health system in Houston, Texas. Our cohort consisted of 97 130 hospitalized patients admitted for more than 48 hours between October 2014 and September 2016. The derivation cohort consisted of the initial 80% of admissions (75 545 patients), with the remainder being used in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

CDI rates in the derivation and validation cohorts were 1.55% and 1.43%, respectively. Thirty-day predictors of CDI were increased number of high-risk antibiotics, Charlson comorbidity index score, age and receipt of a proton pump inhibitor. These variables were incorporated into a simple risk index with a score range of 0 to 10. The final model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration with the observed CDI incidence ranging from 0.1% to 20.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a predictive index for 30-day risk of healthcare-associated CDI using readily available and clinically useful variables. This simple predictive risk index may be used to improve clinical decision making and resource allocation for CDI stewardship initiatives, and guide research design.

Severity of disease correlated with fever reduction in febrile infants

A prospective study of the effects of fever reduction on the clinical appearance of infants at risk for occult bacteremia was undertaken to study the hypothesis that infants with bacteremic illness fail to improve clinically following defervescence compared with infants with benign viral illness. A total of 154 children were enrolled in the study, including 19 with bacteremia: 13 with occult Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteremia, two with occult Haemophilus influenzae, type b bacteremia, and four with Haemophilus meningitis and bacteremia. There were no differences in degree of temperature reduction with acetaminophen between the bacteremic and nonbacteremic groups of infants. Among infants with bacteremia but without meningitis, differences from nonbacteremic children were detected in clinical appearance prior to fever reduction but not following defervescence. All patients with meningitis appeared seriously ill before and after defervescence. It was concluded that clinical improvement with defervescence is not a reliable indicator of the presence of occult bacteremia. Lack of clinical improvement with defervescence may be a reliable indicator for the presence of meningitis. Because there were differences in clinical appearance prior to fever reduction, routine administration of acetaminophen may interfere with the clinical evaluation by the physician.