How well do the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators predict incident fractures? Data from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

This study reports that both FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated fractures in Australian men and women, particularly in those with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Major osteoporotic fractures were poorly predicted, while both calculators performed acceptably well for hip fractures.

INTRODUCTION

This study assessed the ability of the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators to predict fractures in Australian women and men.

METHODS

Women (n = 809) and men (n = 821) aged 50-90 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, were included. Fracture risk was estimated using FRAX and Garvan calculators with and without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) (FRAX_BMD, FRAX_noBMD, Garvan_BMD, Garvan_noBMD). Incident major osteoporotic (MOF), fragility, and hip fractures over the following 10 years were verified radiologically. Differences between observed and predicted numbers of fractures were assessed using a chi-squared test. Diagnostics indexes were calculated.

RESULTS

In women, 115 MOF, 184 fragility, and 42 hip fractures occurred. For men, there were 73, 109, and 17 fractures, respectively. FRAX underestimated MOFs, regardless of sex or inclusion of BMD. FRAX accurately predicted hip fractures, except in women with BMD (20 predicted, p = 0.004). Garvan underestimated fragility fractures except in men using BMD (88 predicted, p = 0.109). Garvan accurately predicted hip fractures except for women without BMD (12 predicted, p < 0.001). Fractures were underestimated primarily in the osteopenia and osteoporosis groups; MOFs in the normal BMD group were only underestimated by FRAX_BMD and fragility fractures by Garvan_noBMD, both in men. AUROCs were not different between scores with and without BMD, except for fragility fractures predicted by Garvan in women (0.696, 95% CI 0.652-0.739 and 0.668, 0.623-0.712, respectively, p = 0.008) and men, which almost reached significance (0.683, 0.631-0.734, and 0.667, 0.615-0.719, respectively, p = 0.051). Analyses of sensitivity and specificity showed overall that MOFs and fragility fractures were poorly predicted by both FRAX and Garvan, while hip fractures were acceptably predicted.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated MOF and fragility fractures, particularly in individuals with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Hip fractures were predicted better by both calculators. AUROC analyses suggest that Garvan_BMD performed better than Garvan_noBMD for prediction of fragility fractures.

Minority recruitment to the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT)

Background Previous large chemoprevention studies have not recruited significant numbers of minorities. The Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) is a large phase III study evaluating the impact of selenium and vitamin E on the clinical incidence of prostate cancer. Over 400 SELECT study sites in the USA, Canada, and Puerto Rico recruited men to this trial. The SELECT recruitment goal was 24% minorities, with 20% black, 3% Hispanic, and 1% Asian participants. The goal for black participants was set at 20% because of their proportion in the United States population and their prevalence of prostate cancer.

Methods The minority recruitment strategies in SELECT were to: 1) consider minority recruitment during site selection; 2) expand the eligibility criteria by lowering the age criterion for black men and including men with controlled co-morbid illnesses; 3) develop a national infrastructure; 4) give additional funds to sites with the potential to increase black enrollment; and 5) provide resources to maximize free media opportunities to promote SELECT.

Results SELECT recruitment began in August 2001 and was intended to last five years, but concluded two years ahead of schedule in June 2004. Of the 35 534 participants enrolled, 21% were minorities, with 15% black, 5% Hispanic, and 1% Asian.

Conclusions Careful planning, recruitment of large numbers of clinical centers and adequate resources accomplished by the combined efforts of the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG), SELECT Recruitment and Adherence Committee (RAC), SELECT Minority and Medically Underserved Subcommittee (MMUS), and the local SELECT sites resulted in attainment of the estimated sample size ahead of schedule and recruitment of the largest percentage of black participants ever randomized to a cancer prevention trial.

Retention of black and white participants in the selenium and vitamin E cancer prevention trial (SWOG-coordinated intergroup study S0000)

BACKGROUND

Disproportionally low retention of minority populations can adversely affect the generalizability of clinical research trials. We determine the overall retention rates for White and Black participants from the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) and explore participant and site characteristics associated with retention failure (study disengagement) for these groups.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of 28,118 White (age ≥55), and 4,322 Black (age ≥ 50) SELECT participants used multivariate Cox regression to estimate overall retention rates and to calculate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Blacks had higher age-adjusted risk of disengagement than Whites (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.77-2.08). Among Black participants, those ages 50 to 54 were at three times the risk of disengagement than those ≥65 years of age (HR, 3.61; 95% CI, 2.41-5.41). Blacks age ≥65 had 1.6 times the risk of disengagement than Whites age ≥65 (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.38-1.87). By 6 years after randomization, 84% of Whites and 69% of Blacks remained engaged in the study. Current smoking status was an independent risk factor for study disengagement for both White and Black participants. For both groups, sites whose staffs missed SELECT training sessions or who received SELECT Retention and Adherence grants were associated with increased and decreased disengagement risks, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SELECT retention was disproportionately lower for Blacks than for Whites.

IMPACT

The observed difference in retention rates for Blacks and Whites and factors identified by race for study disengagement in SELECT may inform retention efforts for future long-term, cancer prevention trials.

Retention of Black and White Populations in the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial

Background: Adequate retention of Black (African-American) participants in long-term, randomized trials is important for achieving broadly applicable results. Purpose: To determine the incidence of retention failures and the individual and study site factors associated with retention failure among White and Black participants from the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT), a phase III study of selenium and vitamin E for prevention of prostate cancer. Methods: SELECT randomized 35,533 participants from 427 study sites. Age eligibility was &gt;55 years for Whites, &gt;50 years for Blacks; race was determined by self-report. The primary analysis included 28,118 (87%) White and 4,322 (13%) Black men. Time to retention failure was defined as days to the earliest of either (1) the second consecutive missed in-person or phone visit or (2) refusal of future contact with study staff. Covariates included participant demographic and clinical characteristics, reasons for participating in SELECT and study site characteristics. Results: In SELECT, Blacks had a higher age-adjusted risk of disengagement than Whites [HR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.7–2.0; p-value &lt; .0001]. Younger Black participants, age 50–54, representing 32% of Black participants, were at three times the risk of disengagement than those age 65+ [HR = 3.34, 95%CI 2.24,4.94, p &lt; .0001]. Blacks age 65+ had 1.6 times the risk of disengagement than Whites age 65+ [HR = 1.58, 95%CI 1.37, 1.83, p &lt; .0001]. By six years post-randomization, 83% of Whites were still retained on the study compared to 68% of Blacks. Among Whites, participant risk factors for disengagement were Hispanic ethnicity, graduate degree, living alone or current smoking; among Blacks, younger age and current smoking were risk factors. The site characteristic associated with disengagement among both racial groups was staff missing SELECT training sessions. Sites with a low staff attendance at training sessions had a high percentage of disengaged participants of either race. Both Whites and Blacks at sites receiving SELECT retention and adherence grants had lower risks for retention failure. Conclusion: These results may be useful in identifying personal and study site characteristics to guide recruitment and enhance retention of both Black and White men in long-term prevention trials.

Impact of supplemental site grants to increase African American accrual for the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial

BACKGROUND

African American accrual to prevention trials at rates representative of the disease burden experienced by this population requires additional resources and focused efforts.

PURPOSE

To describe the rationale, context, and criteria for selection of sites that received Minority Recruitment Enhancement Grants (MREGs) to increase African American recruitment to the Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT). To determine if African American accrual was higher among the 15 MREG sites when compared with similar nonawarded sites.

METHODS

Changes in African American accrual at sites that received MREGs are compared with changes in a group of 15, frequency-matched, nonawarded sites using a quasi-experimental, post hoc analysis. Successful and unsuccessful recruitment strategies reported by the MREG sites are described.

RESULTS

The increased number of African American participants accrued per month at MREG sites post-funding was higher than the change at comparison sites by a factor of 3.38 (p = 0.004, 95% CI: 1.51-7.57). An estimated 602 additional African American participants were recruited at MREG sites due to MREG funding, contributing to the overall 14.9% African American recruitment. Successful recruitment strategies most reported by MREG sites included increasing staff, transportation resources, recruiting through the media, mailings, and prostate cancer screening clinics during off-hours.

LIMITATIONS

Comparison sites were chosen retrospectively, not by randomization. Although comparison sites were selected to be similar to MREG sites with regard to potential confounding factors, it is possible that unknown factors could have biased results. Cost-effective analyses were not conducted.

CONCLUSIONS

MREG sites increased African American accrual in the post-funding period more than comparison sites, indicating MREG funding enhanced the sites' abilities to accrue African American participants. Targeted grants early in the accrual period may be a useful multi-site intervention to increase African American accrual for a prevention study where adequate African American representation is essential.

CYP17 and breast cancer risk: the polymorphism in the 5' flanking area of the gene does not influence binding to Sp-1

The ability of a motif of the CYP17 5' untranslated region, created by a polymorphic T to C substitution, to bind to the human transcription factor Sp-1 was investigated. No binding of any of the polymorphic alleles was observed in electromobility shift assay. No other sequence within +1 to +100 of each of the CYP17 alleles formed complex with the Sp-1 or enhanced binding to the polymorphic CACC box. Genotyping of 510 breast cancer patients and 201 controls revealed no difference in genotype frequencies. Age at onset, tumor grade, lymph node status and distant metastases, stage, and estrogen and progesterone receptor status were not associated with the CYP17 genotype.

Renal carcinoma and dialysis in end-stage renal disease

We describe five patients receiving long-term hemodialysis (mean duration of 6.4 years) in whom eight renal carcinomas were found. In four patients, the carcinoma was confirmed by tissue pathology, while the fifth patient had multiple (four) areas of neovascularity on selective renal arteriography. Two patients died of metastases. In four patients the diagnosis was initially made with selective renal arteriography and in the remaining one, with sonography and computerized tomography. In three of the four arteriography showed diffuse cystic degeneration; pathologic findings revealed renal carcinoma and the changes of "end-stage" disease. Two patients had brief pharmacologic immunosuppression during unsuccessful renal transplantation six years earlier. These cases demonstrate an apparently increased risk of renal carcinomas in end-stage renal disease, a risk that appears to be independent of pharmacologic immunosuppression.