Plain Language Summary - Development and validation of risk calculators for people with "thin" melanomas on their skin to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?

This is a summary of an article describing the development of risk calculators for use in people who develop a type of melanoma on their skin called "thin" melanoma to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return. The article was originally published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology in 2021.

HOW WERE THE CALCULATORS DEVELOPED?

Calculations were performed to predict the chance of people with thin melanomas surviving without their melanoma recurring. Three graphical prediction calculators (called nomograms) were developed, along with easy-to-use online calculators using the same underlying calculation methods. The model was developed using data for 25,930 Dutch people diagnosed with thin melanomas (called the "development set"). To test its ability to predict melanoma recurrence, it was then compared with data for 2,968 Australian people with melanoma (the "validation set"). The calculators developed in the Dutch patients were found to accurately predict the risk of melanoma recurring for people with melanoma in the Australian "validation" group.

WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?

The calculators provide estimates of the risk of the melanoma returning for people with thin melanomas. The easy-to-use online calculators are freely available on a smartphone, tablet or computer, and will assist in providing accurate estimates of recurrence risks for individuals with thin melanomas, allowing more intensive follow-up of those whose predicted risk of their melanoma returning is high.

High discordance rate in assessing sentinel node positivity in cutaneous melanoma: Expert review may reduce unjustified adjuvant treatment

INTRODUCTION

Identification of sentinel node (SN) metastases can set the adjuvant systemic therapy indication for patients with stage III melanoma. Studies re-evaluating the diagnosis of initially positive SN biopsies are scarce.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Dutch patients with melanoma who underwent SN biopsy between 2003 and 2014 were selected from PALGA, the Dutch Pathology Registry. Histopathological slides of SN-positive patients were retrieved for review. A random sample was reassessed by an expert melanoma pathologist. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients who were misclassified (false-positive) was compared with those with a true positive SN status. For comparison, a group of SN-negative patients was included. Multivariable logistic analysis was performed to assess clinicopathological characteristics associated with misclassification of SN status.

RESULTS

Diagnosis was downgraded from melanoma metastasis to nodal nevus in 38 of the 322 reviewed patients (11.8%). Considering the inclusion criteria of phase III adjuvant trials, at least 4.3% of patients would have falsely qualified for adjuvant therapy. In multivariable analysis, patients with a low SN tumour burden and subcapsular SN tumour location had a significantly higher chance of being misclassified. The five-year RFS of the 38 downgraded patients was 86.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 72.6-96.6), similar to the 85.9% (95% CI = 84.9-86.8, p = 0.18) for 6413 SN-negative patients and better than the 53.2% (95% CI = 47.2-59.9, p = 0.009) of 284 patients who were truly SN positive upon review.

CONCLUSION

More than 10% of originally positive SN biopsies of patients with melanoma concern misclassified nodal nevi. We advocate that when adjuvant treatment is considered in patients with stage III melanoma, SN biopsies should be reassessed by an expert melanoma pathologist.