Prognostic Value of Multiplexed Assays of Variant Effect and Automated Patch-clamping for KCNH2-LQTS Risk Stratification

Background

Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a lethal arrhythmia condition, frequently caused by rare loss-of-function variants in the cardiac potassium channel encoded by KCNH2. Variant-based risk stratification is complicated by heterogenous clinical data, incomplete penetrance, and low-throughput functional data.

Objective

To test the utility of variant-specific features, including high-throughput functional data, to predict cardiac events among KCNH2 variant heterozygotes.

Methods

We quantified cell-surface trafficking of 18,323 variants in KCNH2 and recorded potassium current densities for 506 KCNH2 variants. Next, we deeply phenotyped 1150 KCNH2 missense variant patients, including ECG features, cardiac event history (528 total cardiac events), and mortality. We then assessed variant functional, in silico, structural, and LQTS penetrance data to stratify event-free survival for cardiac events in the study cohort.

Results

Variant-specific current density (HR 0.28 [0.13-0.60]) and estimates of LQTS penetrance incorporating MAVE data (HR 3.16 [1.59-6.27]) were independently predictive of severe cardiac events when controlling for patient-specific features. Risk prediction models incorporating these data significantly improved prediction of 20 year cardiac events (AUC 0.79 [0.75-0.82]) over patient-only covariates (QTc and sex) (AUC 0.73 [0.70-0.77]).

Conclusion

We show that high-throughput functional data, and other variant-specific features, meaningfully contribute to both diagnosis and prognosis of a clinically actionable monogenic disease.

Continuous Bayesian variant interpretation accounts for incomplete penetrance among Mendelian cardiac channelopathies

PURPOSE

The congenital Long QT Syndrome (LQTS) and Brugada Syndrome (BrS) are Mendelian autosomal dominant diseases that frequently precipitate fatal cardiac arrhythmias. Incomplete penetrance is a barrier to clinical management of heterozygotes harboring variants in the major implicated disease genes KCNQ1, KCNH2, and SCN5A. We apply and evaluate a Bayesian penetrance estimation strategy that accounts for this phenomenon.

METHODS

We generated Bayesian penetrance models for KCNQ1-LQT1 and SCN5A-LQT3 using variant-specific features and clinical data from the literature, international arrhythmia genetic centers, and population controls. We analyzed the distribution of posterior penetrance estimates across 4 genotype-phenotype relationships and compared continuous estimates with ClinVar annotations. Posterior estimates were mapped onto protein structure.

RESULTS

Bayesian penetrance estimates of KCNQ1-LQT1 and SCN5A-LQT3 are empirically equivalent to 10 and 5 clinically phenotype heterozygotes, respectively. Posterior penetrance estimates were bimodal for KCNQ1-LQT1 and KCNH2-LQT2, with a higher fraction of missense variants with high penetrance among KCNQ1 variants. There was a wide distribution of variant penetrance estimates among identical ClinVar categories. Structural mapping revealed heterogeneity among "hot spot" regions and featured high penetrance estimates for KCNQ1 variants in contact with calmodulin and the S6 domain.

CONCLUSIONS

Bayesian penetrance estimates provide a continuous framework for variant interpretation.

Estimating the Posttest Probability of Long QT Syndrome Diagnosis for Rare KCNH2 Variants

BACKGROUND

The proliferation of genetic profiling has revealed many associations between genetic variations and disease. However, large-scale phenotyping efforts in largely healthy populations, coupled with DNA sequencing, suggest variants currently annotated as pathogenic are more common in healthy populations than previously thought. In addition, novel and rare variants are frequently observed in genes associated with disease both in healthy individuals and those under suspicion of disease. This raises the question of whether these variants can be useful predictors of disease. To answer this question, we assessed the degree to which the presence of a variant in the cardiac potassium channel gene KCNH2 was diagnostically predictive for the autosomal dominant long QT syndrome.

METHODS

We estimated the probability of a long QT diagnosis given the presence of each KCNH2 variant using Bayesian methods that incorporated variant features such as changes in variant function, protein structure, and in silico predictions. We call this estimate the posttest probability of disease. Our method was applied to over 4000 individuals heterozygous for 871 missense or in-frame insertion/deletion variants in KCNH2 and validated against a separate international cohort of 933 individuals heterozygous for 266 missense or in-frame insertion/deletion variants.

RESULTS

Our method was well-calibrated for the observed fraction of heterozygotes diagnosed with long QT syndrome. Heuristically, we found that the innate diagnostic information one learns about a variant from 3-dimensional variant location, in vitro functional data, and in silico predictors is equivalent to the diagnostic information one learns about that same variant by clinically phenotyping 10 heterozygotes. Most importantly, these data can be obtained in the absence of any clinical observations.

CONCLUSIONS

We show how variant-specific features can inform a prior probability of disease for rare variants even in the absence of clinically phenotyped heterozygotes.

The neural correlates of orienting: an integration of fMRI and skin conductance orienting

In fMRI studies, the averaging of neural activity across multiple trials might obscure important psychophysiological subprocesses. The orienting response (OR) is a distinctive subprocess signalling the active orientation of attention towards potentially significant events. We sought to elucidate fMRI activity associated with visual stimuli that did or did not evoke simultaneously recorded electrodermal ORs (using customised skin conductance recording). 'With-OR' stimuli were associated with significant activity in the hippocampus, anterior cingulate and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Averaged analysis revealed activity only in the expected visual circuits. Our results suggest that potentially significant stimuli (with-OR) activate different functional networks to familiar (without-OR) stimuli, and that orienting may therefore be an informative subprocess to consider in cognitive fMRI studies.