Past the Precipice? Projected Coral Habitability Under Global Heating

Coral reefs are rapidly declining due to local environmental degradation and global climate change. In particular, corals are vulnerable to ocean heating. Anomalously hot sea surface temperatures (SSTs) create conditions for severe bleaching or direct thermal death. We use SST observations and CMIP6 model SST to project thermal conditions at reef locations at a resolution of 1 km, a 16-fold improvement over prior studies, under four climate emissions scenarios. We use a novel statistical downscaling method which is significantly more skillful than the standard method, especially at near-coastal pixels where many reefs are found. For each location we present projections of thermal departure (TD, the date after which a location with steadily increasing heat exceeds a given thermal metric) for severe bleaching recurs every 5 years (TD5Y) and every 10 years (TD10Y), accounting for a range of post-bleaching reef recovery/degradation. As of 2021, we find that over 91% and 79% of 1 km² reefs have exceeded TD10Y and TD5Y, respectively, suggesting that widespread long-term coral degradation is no longer avoidable. We project 99% of 1 km² reefs to exceed TD5Y by 2034, 2036, and 2040 under SSP5-8.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP2-4.5 respectively. We project that 2%-5% of reef locations remain below TD5Y at 1.5°C of mean global heating, but 0% remain at 2.0°C. These results demonstrate the importance of further improving ecological projection capacity for climate-vulnerable marine and terrestrial species and ecosystems, including identifying refugia and guiding conservation efforts. Ultimately, saving coral reefs will require rapidly reducing and eliminating greenhouse gas emissions.

Long-term caloric restriction reduces metabolic rate and heart rate under cool and thermoneutral conditions in FBNF1 rats

The long-term metabolic and cardiovascular responses to caloric restriction (CR) are poorly understood. We examined the responses to one year of CR in FBNF1 rats housed in cool (COOL; T(a)=15 °C) or thermoneutral (TMN; T(a)=30 °C) conditions. Rats were acclimated to COOL or TMN for 2 months, instrumented for cardiovascular telemetry and studied in calorimeters. Baseline caloric intake, oxygen consumption (VO(2)), mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), and heart rate (HR) were determined prior to assignment to ad lib (AL) or CR groups (30-40% CR) within each T(a) (n = 8). Groups of rats were studied after 10 weeks CR, one year CR, and after 4 days of re-feeding. Both 10 weeks and one year of CR reduced HR and VO(2) irrespective of T(a). Evaluation of the relationship between metabolic organ mass (liver, heart, brain, and kidney mass) and energy expenditure revealed a clear shift induced by CR to reduce expenditure per unit metabolic mass in both COOL and TMN groups. Re-feeding resulted in prompt elevations of HR and VO(2) to levels observed in control rats. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that long term CR produces sustained reductions in metabolic rate and heart rate in rats.