1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report.

Prevalence of tuberculosis treatment non-adherence in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

<sec> <title>SETTING</title> Non-adherence to treatment is one of the challenges facing global tuberculosis (TB) control. In Ethiopia, an extremely variable and high magnitude of TB treatment non-adherence have been reported from different parts of the country. However, there has been no attempt to estimate the pooled prevalence of non-adherence from this heterogeneous data. </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> To review the available literature and estimate the overall prevalence of treatment non-adherence among patients with TB on first-line treatment in Ethiopia. </sec> <sec> <title>DESIGN</title> A systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles on TB treatment non-adherence. </sec> <sec> <title>RESULTS</title> We included 26 studies, which contained data on 37 381 patients with TB. The crude prevalence of non-adherence reported by the studies included was extremely variable (range 0.2-35%). The overall pooled estimate of non-adherence prevalence was 10.0% (95%CI 8.0-11.0). The pooled prevalence of patients lost to follow-up alone was 5.0% (95%CI 4.0-6.0), while the pooled prevalence of intermittent non-adherence was 20.0% (95%CI 15.0-25.0). </sec> <sec> <title>CONCLUSION</title> The rate of TB treatment non-adherence in Ethiopia remains too high to achieve target treatment success rates and prevent drug resistance. Implementing an effective patient retention scheme, along with the DOTS strategy, is critical to improving treatment adherence and preventing drug resistance. </sec>.

Survival rate of colon and rectum cancer in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Colorectal cancer is one of the deadliest cancers worldwide. Effective screening, surveillance and prevention can decrease its incidence, mortality and burden. This meta-analysis aims to provide a pooled estimation of 5-year survival rate for colorectal cancer based on topography codes and treatment in Iranian population. A systematic search for literature was done in international and national databases up to July 2018. Twenty-seven studies from 4929 articles met the eligible criteria. The overall pooled 5-year survival rates of colorectal cancer, colon, rectal and sigmoid were 56% (95% CI: 49, 63), 53% (95% CI: 41, 65), 52% (95% CI: 41, 62) and 38% (95% CI: 22, 55), respectively. In addition, 5-year survival rate of colorectal cancer after surgery was 64% (95%CI: 50, 78). Subgroup analysis by type of data source showed significantly higher rate of survival in oncology center (29%) than hospital-based (p=0.005). As a conclusion, low survival rate of colorectal cancer in Iran necessitates effective screening and surveillance strategies to find precancerous polyps and detect early-stage cases with lower stage risk of cancer.

Sitagliptin vs. pioglitazone as add-on treatments in patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes on the maximal dose of metformin plus sulfonylurea

AIMS

To compare the efficacy of sitagliptin versus pioglitazone as add-on drugs in patients with poorly controlled diabetes with metformin and sulfonylureas.

METHODS

This is a randomized, open-label, parallel assignment clinical trial. Patients who had inadequate glycemic control [7% (53 mmol/mol) ≤ A1C < 11% (97 mmol/mol)] despite a minimum 6-month period of active treatment with metformin 2000 mg/day plus gliclazide 240 mg/day were enrolled in the study. HbA1C, fasting blood glucose (FBG), fasting plasma lipid parameters [total cholesterol (TC0, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C)], systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), weight, waist circumference, and body mass index were measured at baseline and after 17, 34, and 52 weeks of treatment. Generalized estimating equation analysis was done to compare treatment groups for continuous efficacy parameters.

RESULTS

No significant difference in HbA1C reduction was observed between the treatment groups during the study course. (P = 0.149, adjusted P = 0.434; coefficient - 0.11 ± 0.08). The FBG (P = 0.032; coefficient 7.44 ± 3.48), HDL-C (P = 0.001; coefficient - 2.69 ± 0.83), TG (P = 0.027; coefficient 12.63 ± 5.71) and SBP (P < 0.001; coefficient 5.43 ± 1.26) changes from baseline, and weight gain were greater in the pioglitazone group. The mean changes in LDL-C and TC from baseline to week 52 were greater in the sitagliptin group (P = 0.034; coefficient - 7.40 ± 3.50, P = 0.013; coefficient - 7.16 ± 2.88, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Sitagliptin and pioglitazone were equally effective in improvement of HbA1C. There were some differences in terms of lipid indices, weight gain, and SBP. The current study confirmed that both sitagliptin and pioglitazone are effective treatment options and the decision should be made for each individual based on the baseline characteristics.

Prevalence and correlates of low physical activity in the Iranian population: National survey on non-communicable diseases in 2011

To assess the prevalence and correlates of low physical activity among Iranian population aged 15-64 years. We used the data collected in National Surveillance of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases in Iran, 2011. Physical activity was categorized in 3 levels of low, moderate, and high based on a Persian version of Global Physical Activity Questionnaire. The multistage cluster sampling design was accounted for using complex survey analysis method. The sample included 10016 individuals; 41.7% (n = 4178) were men and 58.3% (n = 5837) were women. The mean (SD) age of participants was 38.8 (14.9) years also, and 69.8% (n = 6991) of the participants were from urban areas. The prevalence of low physical activity in the whole population was estimated to be 44.8% (95% CI: 41.7, 48.1). The odds of lower physical activity in the women were 3 times greater than men (OR = 3.14; 95% CI: 2.64, 3.57); in the wealthiest people was 25% lower than the poorest people (OR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.94). The odds of lower physical activity in the age groups 55-64 years were 44% greater than the youngest age groups 15-24 years (OR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.23, 1.68). The odds of lower physical activity in the obese participants were 18% greater than normal-weight people (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.38).). The odds of lower physical activity in diabetic patients were 30% greater than healthy people (OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.57). The prevalence of low physical activity in Iran, 2011 was high. The correlates of low physical activity in Iran are different to those of Western populations. The main associated factors with low physical activity were female gender, urban area, low socioeconomic status, obesity, diabetes, and older age. Public health policies should target the groups at highest risk of low physical activity.

Subclinical hypothyroidism and diabetic nephropathy in Iranian patients with type 2 diabetes

PURPOSE

Association of subclinical hypothyroidism with type 2 diabetes and its complications has been previously documented. These reports were, however, inconclusive and mainly gathered from Chinese and East Asian populations. In this study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism and its relationship with diabetic nephropathy in Iranian individuals with type 2 diabetes, drawn from a white Middle Eastern population with an increasing prevalence of diabetes.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 255 Iranian participants with type 2 diabetes and without history of thyroid disorders were included. Patients with TSH > 4.2 mIU/L and normal T4 were classified as having subclinical hypothyroidism. Diabetic nephropathy was diagnosed based on abnormal 24-h urinary albumin or protein measurements (24-h urinary albumin ≥30 mg/day or 24-h urinary protein ≥150 mg/day). Multivariate logistic regression was employed to obtain the OR for the relationship between subclinical hypothyroidism and diabetic nephropathy.

RESULTS

We found that subclinical hypothyroidism and diabetic nephropathy were as prevalent as 18.1 and 41.2 %, respectively, among the participants. We also found that subclinical hypothyroidism was independently associated with higher rates of diabetic nephropathy, after multivariable adjustment (OR [95 % CI] 3.23 [1.42-7.37], p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism in Iranian diabetic population was among the highest rates reported to date. Our data supported the independent association of subclinical hypothyroidism with diabetic nephropathy, calling for further investigations to evaluate their longitudinal associations.

Socioeconomic status and prevalence of self-reported diabetes among adults in Tehran: results from a large population-based cross-sectional study (Urban HEART-2)

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus is an important public health challenge worldwide. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes varies across countries. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and to determine related factors including socioeconomic factors in a large random sample of Tehran population in 2011.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 91,814 individuals aged over 20 years were selected randomly based on a multistage, cluster sampling. All participants were interviewed by trained personnel using standard questionnaires. Prevalence and Townsend deprivation indexes were calculated. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to construct wealth index. Logistic regression model was used in multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The estimated prevalence of self-reported diabetes was 4.98 % overall, 4.76 %in men and 5.19 % in women (P < 0.003). In multivariate analysis, age, marital status (married and divorced/widow) and BMI were positively associated with the prevalence of self-reported diabetes. Of the socioeconomic variables, educational level and wealth status were negatively and Townsend Index was positively associated with diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Our study findings highlight low reported prevalence of diabetes among adults in Tehran. Subjects with low socioeconomic status (SES) had a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Weight gain and obesity were the most important risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes. Wealth index and educational level were better socioeconomic indicators for presenting the inequality in diabetes prevalence in relation to Townsend deprivation index.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively.

CONCLUSION

By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Residential segregation and infant mortality: a multilevel study using Iranian census data

BACKGROUND

There is a great amount of literature concerning the effect of racial segregation on health outcomes but few papers have discussed the effect of segregation on the basis of social, demographic and economic characteristics on health. We estimated the independent effect of segregation of determinants of socioeconomic status on infant mortality in Iranian population.

METHODS

For measuring segregation, we used generalized dissimilarity index for two group and multi group nominal variables and ordinal information theory index for ordinal variables. Sample data was obtained from Iranian latest national census and multilevel modeling with individual variables at level one and segregation indices measured at province level for socioeconomic status variables at level two were used to assess the effect of segregation on infant mortality.

RESULTS

Among individual factors, mother activity was a risk factor for infant mortality. Segregated provinces in regard to size of the house, ownership of a house and motorcycle, number of literate individual in the family and use of natural gas for cooking and heating had higher infant mortality. Segregation indices measured for education level, migration history, activity, marital status and existence of bathroom were negatively associated with infant mortality.

CONCLUSION

Segregation of different contextual characteristics of neighborhood had different effects on health outcomes. Studying segregation of social, economic, and demographic factors, especially in communities, which are racially homogenous, might reveal new insights into dissimilarities in health.

Sulfate-selective Electrode Based on a Complex of Copper

A new sulfate-selective electrode based on the complex N,N'-bis(2-amino-1-oxo-phenelenyl)phenylenediamine copper(II) (CuL) as the membrane carrier was developed. The electrode exhibited a good Nernstian slope of -29.5 +/- 0.5 mV/decade and a linear range of 1.0 x 10(-7) - 1.0 x 10(-1) M for sulfate. The limit of detection was 1.0 x 10(-8) M. It has a fast response time of 10 s and can be used for more than three months. The selective coefficients were determined by the fixed interference method (FIM). The electrode could be used in the pH range 3.5 - 8.0. It was employed as an indicator electrode for direct determination of sulfate in pharmacy and cement samples.