The Next Horizon of Drug Development: External Control Arms and Innovative Tools to Enrich Clinical Trial Data

Conducting clinical trials (CTs) has become increasingly costly and complex in terms of designing and operationalizing. These challenges exist in running CTs on novel therapies, particularly in oncology and rare diseases, where CTs increasingly target narrower patient groups. In this study, we describe external control arms (ECA) and other relevant tools, such as virtualization and decentralized clinical trials (DCTs), and the ability to follow the clinical trial subjects in the real world using tokenization. ECAs are typically constructed by identifying appropriate external sources of data, then by cleaning and standardizing it to create an analysis-ready data file, and finally, by matching subjects in the external data with the subjects in the CT of interest. In addition, ECA tools also include subject-level meta-analysis and simulated subjects' data for analyses. By implementing the recent advances in digital health technologies and devices, virtualization, and DCTs, realigning of CTs from site-centric designs to virtual, decentralized, and patient-centric designs can be done, which reduces the patient burden to participate in the CTs and encourages diversity. Tokenization technology allows linking the CT data with real-world data (RWD), creating more comprehensive and longitudinal outcome measures. These tools provide robust ways to enrich the CT data for informed decision-making, reduce the burden on subjects and costs of trial operations, and augment the insights gained for the CT data.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of hypothesis evaluating real-world evidence studies on treatment effects: A good practices report of a joint ISPE/ISPOR task force

PROBLEM

Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias.

WHAT WE DID

The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The overarching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility.

STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE

Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years.

CONCLUSION

The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility of Hypothesis Evaluating Real-World Evidence Studies on Treatment Effects: A Good Practices Report of a Joint ISPE/ISPOR Task Force

OBJECTIVES

Ambiguity in communication of key study parameters limits the utility of real-world evidence (RWE) studies in healthcare decision-making. Clear communication about data provenance, design, analysis, and implementation is needed. This would facilitate reproducibility, replication in independent data, and assessment of potential sources of bias.

METHODS

The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) convened a joint task force, including representation from key international stakeholders, to create a harmonized protocol template for RWE studies that evaluate a treatment effect and are intended to inform decision-making. The template builds on existing efforts to improve transparency and incorporates recent insights regarding the level of detail needed to enable RWE study reproducibility. The over-arching principle was to reach for sufficient clarity regarding data, design, analysis, and implementation to achieve 3 main goals. One, to help investigators thoroughly consider, then document their choices and rationale for key study parameters that define the causal question (e.g., target estimand), two, to facilitate decision-making by enabling reviewers to readily assess potential for biases related to these choices, and three, to facilitate reproducibility.

STRATEGIES TO DISSEMINATE AND FACILITATE USE

Recognizing that the impact of this harmonized template relies on uptake, we have outlined a plan to introduce and pilot the template with key international stakeholders over the next 2 years.

CONCLUSION

The HARmonized Protocol Template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) helps to create a shared understanding of intended scientific decisions through a common text, tabular and visual structure. The template provides a set of core recommendations for clear and reproducible RWE study protocols and is intended to be used as a backbone throughout the research process from developing a valid study protocol, to registration, through implementation and reporting on those implementation decisions.

Comparative effectiveness and safety of pharmaceuticals assessed in observational studies compared with randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

There have been ongoing efforts to understand when and how data from observational studies can be applied to clinical and regulatory decision making. The objective of this review was to assess the comparability of relative treatment effects of pharmaceuticals from observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase for systematic literature reviews published between January 1, 1990, and January 31, 2020, that reported relative treatment effects of pharmaceuticals from both observational studies and RCTs. We extracted pooled relative effect estimates from observational studies and RCTs for each outcome, intervention-comparator, or indication assessed in the reviews. We calculated the ratio of the relative effect estimate from observational studies over that from RCTs, along with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for each pair of pooled RCT and observational study estimates, and we evaluated the consistency in relative treatment effects.

RESULTS

Thirty systematic reviews across 7 therapeutic areas were identified from the literature. We analyzed 74 pairs of pooled relative effect estimates from RCTs and observational studies from 29 reviews. There was no statistically significant difference (based on the 95% CI) in relative effect estimates between RCTs and observational studies in 79.7% of pairs. There was an extreme difference (ratio < 0.7 or > 1.43) in 43.2% of pairs, and, in 17.6% of pairs, there was a significant difference and the estimates pointed in opposite directions.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our review shows that while there is no significant difference in the relative risk ratios between the majority of RCTs and observational studies compared, there is significant variation in about 20% of comparisons. The source of this variation should be the subject of further inquiry to elucidate how much of the variation is due to differences in patient populations versus biased estimates arising from issues with study design or analytical/statistical methods.

Identifying the Need for Good Practices in Health Technology Assessment: Summary of the ISPOR HTA Council Working Group Report on Good Practices in HTA

The systematic use of evidence to inform healthcare decisions, particularly health technology assessment (HTA), has gained increased recognition. HTA has become a standard policy tool for informing decision makers who must manage the entry and use of pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and other technologies (including complex interventions) within health systems, for example, through reimbursement and pricing. Despite increasing attention to HTA activities, there has been no attempt to comprehensively synthesize good practices or emerging good practices to support population-based decision-making in recent years. After the identification of some good practices through the release of the ISPOR Guidelines Index in 2013, the ISPOR HTA Council identified a need to more thoroughly review existing guidance. The purpose of this effort was to create a basis for capacity building, education, and improved consistency in approaches to HTA-informed decision-making. Our findings suggest that although many good practices have been developed in areas of assessment and some other key aspects of defining HTA processes, there are also many areas where good practices are lacking. This includes good practices in defining the organizational aspects of HTA, the use of deliberative processes, and measuring the impact of HTA. The extent to which these good practices are used and applied by HTA bodies is beyond the scope of this report, but may be of interest to future researchers.

Reporting to Improve Reproducibility and Facilitate Validity Assessment for Healthcare Database Studies V1.0

Purpose

Defining a study population and creating an analytic dataset from longitudinal healthcare databases involves many decisions. Our objective was to catalogue scientific decisions underpinning study execution that should be reported to facilitate replication and enable assessment of validity of studies conducted in large healthcare databases.

Methods

We reviewed key investigator decisions required to operate a sample of macros and software tools designed to create and analyze analytic cohorts from longitudinal streams of healthcare data. A panel of academic, regulatory, and industry experts in healthcare database analytics discussed and added to this list.

Conclusion

Evidence generated from large healthcare encounter and reimbursement databases is increasingly being sought by decision‐makers. Varied terminology is used around the world for the same concepts. Agreeing on terminology and which parameters from a large catalogue are the most essential to report for replicable research would improve transparency and facilitate assessment of validity. At a minimum, reporting for a database study should provide clarity regarding operational definitions for key temporal anchors and their relation to each other when creating the analytic dataset, accompanied by an attrition table and a design diagram.

A substantial improvement in reproducibility, rigor and confidence in real world evidence generated from healthcare databases could be achieved with greater transparency about operational study parameters used to create analytic datasets from longitudinal healthcare databases.

The joint ISPOR–ISPE Special Task Force on real-world evidence in health care decision making: an interview with Marc Berger

Marc L Berger, MD, is a retired, part-time consultant. He recently became Chair of the Real World Evidence Advisory Board for SHYFT Analytics. Over a 25-year industry career, Marc has held senior-level positions at Pfizer, Inc., OptumInsight, Eli Lilly and Company, and Merck & Co., Inc. His professional activities have included serving on committees for Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI), the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR), Drug Information Association (DIA), and the editorial advisory boards of several journals. Marc has written or co-written more than 100 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, and other publications on a range of topics including health services research, outcomes research, health economics, health policy, and the analysis of real-world data.

Reporting to Improve Reproducibility and Facilitate Validity Assessment for Healthcare Database Studies V1.0

PURPOSE

Defining a study population and creating an analytic dataset from longitudinal healthcare databases involves many decisions. Our objective was to catalogue scientific decisions underpinning study execution that should be reported to facilitate replication and enable assessment of validity of studies conducted in large healthcare databases.

METHODS

We reviewed key investigator decisions required to operate a sample of macros and software tools designed to create and analyze analytic cohorts from longitudinal streams of healthcare data. A panel of academic, regulatory, and industry experts in healthcare database analytics discussed and added to this list.

CONCLUSION

Evidence generated from large healthcare encounter and reimbursement databases is increasingly being sought by decision-makers. Varied terminology is used around the world for the same concepts. Agreeing on terminology and which parameters from a large catalogue are the most essential to report for replicable research would improve transparency and facilitate assessment of validity. At a minimum, reporting for a database study should provide clarity regarding operational definitions for key temporal anchors and their relation to each other when creating the analytic dataset, accompanied by an attrition table and a design diagram. A substantial improvement in reproducibility, rigor and confidence in real world evidence generated from healthcare databases could be achieved with greater transparency about operational study parameters used to create analytic datasets from longitudinal healthcare databases.

Good Practices for Real-World Data Studies of Treatment and/or Comparative Effectiveness: Recommendations from the Joint ISPOR-ISPE Special Task Force on Real-World Evidence in Health Care Decision Making

PURPOSE

Real-world evidence (RWE) includes data from retrospective or prospective observational studies and observational registries and provides insights beyond those addressed by randomized controlled trials. RWE studies aim to improve health care decision making.

METHODS

The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) created a task force to make recommendations regarding good procedural practices that would enhance decision makers' confidence in evidence derived from RWD studies. Peer review by ISPOR/ISPE members and task force participants provided a consensus-building iterative process for the topics and framing of recommendations.

RESULTS

The ISPOR/ISPE Task Force recommendations cover seven topics such as study registration, replicability, and stakeholder involvement in RWE studies. These recommendations, in concert with earlier recommendations about study methodology, provide a trustworthy foundation for the expanded use of RWE in health care decision making.

CONCLUSION

The focus of these recommendations is good procedural practices for studies that test a specific hypothesis in a specific population. We recognize that some of the recommendations in this report may not be widely adopted without appropriate incentives from decision makers, journal editors, and other key stakeholders.

Good practices for real-world data studies of treatment and/or comparative effectiveness: Recommendations from the joint ISPOR-ISPE Special Task Force on real-world evidence in health care decision making

PURPOSE

Real-world evidence (RWE) includes data from retrospective or prospective observational studies and observational registries and provides insights beyond those addressed by randomized controlled trials. RWE studies aim to improve health care decision making.

METHODS

The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) created a task force to make recommendations regarding good procedural practices that would enhance decision makers' confidence in evidence derived from RWD studies. Peer review by ISPOR/ISPE members and task force participants provided a consensus-building iterative process for the topics and framing of recommendations.

RESULTS

The ISPOR/ISPE Task Force recommendations cover seven topics such as study registration, replicability, and stakeholder involvement in RWE studies. These recommendations, in concert with earlier recommendations about study methodology, provide a trustworthy foundation for the expanded use of RWE in health care decision making.

CONCLUSION

The focus of these recommendations is good procedural practices for studies that test a specific hypothesis in a specific population. We recognize that some of the recommendations in this report may not be widely adopted without appropriate incentives from decision makers, journal editors, and other key stakeholders.

The Decision to Conduct a Head-to-Head Comparative Trial: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Recent Medicare legislation calls on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality to conduct research related to the comparative effectiveness of health care items and services, including prescription drugs. This reinforces earlier calls for head-to-head comparative trials of clinically relevant treatment alternatives. Using a game-theoretic model, the authors explore the decision of pharmaceutical companies to conduct such trials. The model suggests that an important factor affecting this decision is the potential loss in market share and profits following a result of inferiority or comparability. This hidden cost is higher for the market leader than the market follower, making it less likely that the leader will choose to conduct a trial. The model also suggests that in a full-information environment, it will never be the case that both firms choose to conduct such a trial. Furthermore, if market shares and the probability of proving superiority are similar for both firms, it is quite possible that neither firm will choose to conduct a trial. Finally, the results indicate that incentives that offset the direct cost of a trial can prevent a no-trial equilibrium, even when both firms face the possibility of an inferior outcome.

Effects of injectable trace minerals on humoral and cell-mediated immune responses to Bovine viral diarrhea virus, Bovine herpes virus 1 and Bovine respiratory syncytial virus following administration of a modified-live virus vaccine in dairy calves

Our objective was to evaluate the effect of an injectable trace mineral (ITM) supplement containing zinc, manganese, selenium, and copper on the humoral and cell mediated immune (CMI) responses to vaccine antigens in dairy calves receiving a modified-live viral (MLV) vaccine containing BVDV, BHV1, PI3V and BRSV. A total of 30 dairy calves (3.5 months of age) were administered a priming dose of the MLV vaccine containing BHV1, BVDV1 & 2, BRSV, PI3V, and an attenuated-live Mannheimia-Pasteurella bacterin subcutaneously (SQ). Calves were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 groups: (1) administration of ITM SQ (ITM, n=15) or (2) injection of sterile saline SQ (Control; n=15). Three weeks later, calves received a booster of the same vaccine combination SQ, and a second administration of ITM, or sterile saline, according to the treatment group. Blood samples were collected on days 0, 7, 14, 21, 28, 42, 56, and 90 post-vaccination for determination of antibody titer, viral recall antigen-induced IFN-γ production, and viral antigen-induced proliferation by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Administration of ITM concurrently with MLV vaccination resulted in higher antibody titers to BVDV1 on day 28 after priming vaccination compared to the control group (P=0.03). Calves treated with ITM showed an earlier enhancement in PBMC proliferation to BVDV1 following vaccination compared to the control group. Proliferation of PBMC after BVDV stimulation tended to be higher on day 14 after priming vaccination in calves treated with ITM than in the control group (P=0.08). Calves that received ITM showed higher PBMC proliferation to BRSV stimulation on day 7 after priming vaccination compared to the control group (P=0.01). Moreover, calves in the ITM group also had an enhanced production IFN-γ by PBMC after stimulation with BRSV on day 21 after priming vaccination compared to day 0 (P<0.01). In conclusion, administration of ITM concurrently with MLV vaccination in dairy calves resulted in increased antibody titer to BVDV1, and greater PBMC proliferation to BVDV1 and BRSV recall stimulation compared to the control group, suggesting that ITM might represent a promising tool to enhance the humoral and CMI responses to MLV vaccines in cattle.

Opportunities and challenges in leveraging electronic health record data in oncology

The widespread adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) and the growing wealth of digitized information sources about patients is ushering in an era of 'Big Data' that may revolutionize clinical research in oncology. Research will likely be more efficient and potentially more accurate than the current gold standard of manual chart review studies. However, EHRs as they exist today have significant limitations: important data elements are missing or are only captured in free text or PDF documents. Using two case studies, we illustrate the challenges of leveraging the data that are routinely collected by the healthcare system in EHRs (e.g., real-world data), specific challenges encountered in the cancer domain and opportunities that can be achieved when these are overcome.

Big Data: transforming drug development and health policy decision making

The explosion of data sources, accompanied by the evolution of technology and analytical techniques, has created considerable challenges and opportunities for drug development and healthcare resource utilization. We present a systematic overview these phenomena, and suggest measures to be taken for effective integration of the new developments in the traditional medical research paradigm and health policy decision making. Special attention is paid to pertinent issues in emerging areas, including rare disease drug development, personalized medicine, Comparative Effectiveness Research, and privacy and confidentiality concerns.

Optimizing the leveraging of real-world data to improve the development and use of medicines

Health research, including health outcomes and comparative effectiveness research, is on the cusp of a golden era of access to digitized real-world data, catalyzed by the adoption of electronic health records and the integration of clinical and biological information with other data. This era promises more robust insights into what works in health care. Several barriers, however, will need to be addressed if the full potential of these new data are fully realized; these will involve both policy solutions and stakeholder cooperation. Although a number of these issues have been widely discussed, we focus on the one we believe is the most important-the facilitation of greater openness among public and private stakeholders to collaboration, connecting information and data sharing, with the goal of making robust and complete data accessible to all researchers. In this way, we can better understand the consequences of health care delivery, improve the effectiveness and efficiency of health care systems, and develop advancements in health technologies. Early real-world data initiatives illustrate both potential and the need for future progress, as well as the essential role of collaboration and data sharing. Health policies critical to progress will include those that promote open source data standards, expand access to the data, increase data capture and connectivity, and facilitate communication of findings.

Big data, advanced analytics and the future of comparative effectiveness research

The intense competition that accompanied the growth of internet-based companies ushered in the era of 'big data' characterized by major innovations in processing of very large amounts of data and the application of advanced analytics including data mining and machine learning. Healthcare is on the cusp of its own era of big data, catalyzed by the changing regulatory and competitive environments, fueled by growing adoption of electronic health records, as well as efforts to integrate medical claims, electronic health records and other novel data sources. Applying the lessons from big data pioneers will require healthcare and life science organizations to make investments in new hardware and software, as well as in individuals with different skills. For life science companies, this will impact the entire pharmaceutical value chain from early research to postcommercialization support. More generally, this will revolutionize comparative effectiveness research.

The role of private industry in pragmatic comparative effectiveness trials

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) includes pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) to address 'real-world' effectiveness. CER interest would be expected to stimulate biopharmaceutical manufacturer PCT investment; however, this does not seem to be the case. In this article we identify all industry-sponsored PCT studies from 1996 to 2010; analyze them across a variety of characteristics, including sponsor, research question, design, comparators and results; and suggest methodological and policy changes to spur future manufacturer PCT investment. Nine 'naturalistic', head-to-head versus standard of care or similar agent PCTs were identified. Two included a 'usual care' arm. Chronic care trials' length averaged 12 months (range: 6-24 months), six of which reported equivocal or no difference in effectiveness; results of two chronic and the single acute care PCTs favored the sponsor drug. None reported the sponsor drug inferior. Of seven that evaluated utilization or costs, six reported no differences and four of five studies comparing brand-generic drugs reported no difference. Whereas private investment in PCTs is in the public interest, manufacturers apparently have not yet seen the business case. To induce investment, we propose several methodological and regulatory policy innovations designed to reduce business risk by decreasing outcome variability and increasing trial efficiency, flexibility and market applicability.

A questionnaire to assess the relevance and credibility of observational studies to inform health care decision making: an ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Good Practice Task Force report

Evidence-based health care decisions are best informed by comparisons of all relevant interventions used to treat conditions in specific patient populations. Observational studies are being performed to help fill evidence gaps. Widespread adoption of evidence from observational studies, however, has been limited because of various factors, including the lack of consensus regarding accepted principles for their evaluation and interpretation. Two task forces were formed to develop questionnaires to assist decision makers in evaluating observational studies, with one Task Force addressing retrospective research and the other Task Force addressing prospective research. The intent was to promote a structured approach to reduce the potential for subjective interpretation of evidence and drive consistency in decision making. Separately developed questionnaires were combined into a single questionnaire consisting of 33 items. These were divided into two domains: relevance and credibility. Relevance addresses the extent to which findings, if accurate, apply to the setting of interest to the decision maker. Credibility addresses the extent to which the study findings accurately answer the study question. The questionnaire provides a guide for assessing the degree of confidence that should be placed from observational studies and promotes awareness of the subtleties involved in evaluating those.

Interview: Access to richer data promises to usher in a new era of insight into patient heterogeneity

Marc L Berger, MD is Vice President of Real World Data and Analytics at Pfizer, Inc. During his career, he has held a variety of leadership positions at OptumInsight, Eli Lilly and Company, and Merck and Co., Inc. His professional activities have included serving on the Medicare Evidence Development and Coverage Advisory Committee, the board of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR), and the steering committee for the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (AHRQ) Centers for Research and Education on Therapeutics. He also co-chaired the ISPOR Taskforce on Prospective Observational Studies for Comparative Effectiveness Research and currently chairs the Comparative Effectiveness Research Collaborative Initiative Taskforce for the Interpreting Prospective Observational Studies for Health Care Decisions. Dr Berger has written or cowritten more than 100 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters and other publications on a range of topics including health services research, outcomes research, health economics and health policy.

Screening of 64 tryptamines at NMDA, 5-HT1A, and 5-HT2A receptors: a comparative binding and modeling study

Tryptamine (T) and several T derivatives (Ts) inhibit in a voltage-dependent manner the NMDA receptor (NR). This effect is influenced by substituents at various positions, but has not yet been subjected to a detailed SAR study. Here, 64 Ts have been tested as inhibitors of [3H]MK-801 binding to NRs on rat brain membranes. For comparison, they were also tested as inhibitors of [3H]8-OHDPAT binding to 5-HT1A and of [3H]ketanserin binding to 5-HT2A receptors. Since most of these Ts have not been tested before at any of these receptors, we start with a review of the effects of Ts on 5-HT1A and 5-HT2A binding sites. NRs were inhibited with IC50s from 2 to 7 μM by Ts with alkyl or halogen at positions 2, 5, and/or 7. Inhibition by some Ts was attenuated more than 10-fold by 30 μM spermine. The most potent inhibitors at 5-HT1A receptors were 5-carboxamido-T (IC50 0.00015 μM) and serotonin (0.0016 μM), at 5-HT2A receptors 2-Me-4,7-Cl2-T (1.2 μM) and 2,7-Me2-4-Cl-T (2.0 μM). Fujita-Ban modified Free-Wilson analyses pointed to the individual significance of particular substituents. Also QSARs based on molecular operating environment descriptors resulted in sound correlations at all 4 targets. No similarities between the NR and 5-HT receptors could be found. At the NR, only L-Trp-NH2 bound 10 times better than at both 5-HT receptors studied. L-Trp-NH2 may be a structural lead to endogenous non-competitive NR antagonists.

Prospective observational studies to assess comparative effectiveness: the ISPOR good research practices task force report

OBJECTIVE

In both the United States and Europe there has been an increased interest in using comparative effectiveness research of interventions to inform health policy decisions. Prospective observational studies will undoubtedly be conducted with increased frequency to assess the comparative effectiveness of different treatments, including as a tool for "coverage with evidence development," "risk-sharing contracting," or key element in a "learning health-care system." The principle alternatives for comparative effectiveness research include retrospective observational studies, prospective observational studies, randomized clinical trials, and naturalistic ("pragmatic") randomized clinical trials.

METHODS

This report details the recommendations of a Good Research Practice Task Force on Prospective Observational Studies for comparative effectiveness research. Key issues discussed include how to decide when to do a prospective observational study in light of its advantages and disadvantages with respect to alternatives, and the report summarizes the challenges and approaches to the appropriate design, analysis, and execution of prospective observational studies to make them most valuable and relevant to health-care decision makers.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The task force emphasizes the need for precision and clarity in specifying the key policy questions to be addressed and that studies should be designed with a goal of drawing causal inferences whenever possible. If a study is being performed to support a policy decision, then it should be designed as hypothesis testing-this requires drafting a protocol as if subjects were to be randomized and that investigators clearly state the purpose or main hypotheses, define the treatment groups and outcomes, identify all measured and unmeasured confounders, and specify the primary analyses and required sample size. Separate from analytic and statistical approaches, study design choices may strengthen the ability to address potential biases and confounding in prospective observational studies. The use of inception cohorts, new user designs, multiple comparator groups, matching designs, and assessment of outcomes thought not to be impacted by the therapies being compared are several strategies that should be given strong consideration recognizing that there may be feasibility constraints. The reasoning behind all study design and analytic choices should be transparent and explained in study protocol. Execution of prospective observational studies is as important as their design and analysis in ensuring that results are valuable and relevant, especially capturing the target population of interest, having reasonably complete and nondifferential follow-up. Similar to the concept of the importance of declaring a prespecified hypothesis, we believe that the credibility of many prospective observational studies would be enhanced by their registration on appropriate publicly accessible sites (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov and encepp.eu) in advance of their execution.

Chronic exposure to manganese decreases striatal dopamine turnover in human alpha-synuclein transgenic mice

Interaction of genetic and environmental factors is likely involved in Parkinson's disease (PD). Mutations and multiplications of alpha-synuclein (α-syn) cause familial PD, and chronic manganese (Mn) exposure can produce an encephalopathy with signs of parkinsonism. We exposed male transgenic C57BL/6J mice expressing human α-syn or the A53T/A30P doubly mutated human α-syn under the tyrosine hydroxylase promoter and non-transgenic littermates to MnCl₂-enriched (1%) or control food, starting at the age of 4 months. Locomotor activity was increased by Mn without significant effect of the transgenes. Mice were sacrificed at the age of 7 or 20 months. Striatal Mn was significantly increased about three-fold in those exposed to MnCl₂. The number of tyrosine hydroxylase positive substantia nigra compacta neurons was significantly reduced in 20 months old mice (-10%), but Mn or transgenes were ineffective (three-way ANOVA with the factors gene, Mn and age). In 7 months old mice, striatal homovanillic acid (HVA)/dopamine (DA) ratios and aspartate levels were significantly increased in control mice with human α-syn as compared to non-transgenic controls (+17 and +11%, respectively); after Mn exposure both parameters were significantly reduced (-16 and -13%, respectively) in human α-syn mice, but unchanged in non-transgenic animals and mice with mutated α-syn (two-way ANOVA with factors gene and Mn). None of the parameters were changed in the 20 months old mice. Single HVA/DA ratios and single aspartate levels significantly correlated across all treatment groups suggesting a causal relationship between the rate of striatal DA metabolism and aspartate release. In conclusion, under our experimental conditions, Mn and human α-syn, wild-type and doubly mutated, did not interact to induce PD-like neurodegenerative changes. However, Mn significantly and selectively interacted with human wild-type α-syn on indices of striatal DA neurotransmission, the neurotransmitter most relevant to PD.

GRACE principles: recognizing high-quality observational studies of comparative effectiveness

Nonrandomized comparative effectiveness studies contribute to clinical and biologic understanding of treatments by themselves, via subsequent confirmation in a more targeted randomized clinical trial, or through advances in basic science. Although methodological challenges and a lack of accepted principles to assess the quality of nonrandomized studies of comparative effectiveness have limited the practical use of these investigations, even imperfect studies can contribute useful information if they are thoughtfully designed, well conducted, carefully analyzed, and reported in a manner that addresses concerns from skeptical readers and reviewers. The GRACE (Good Research for Comparative Effectiveness) principles have been developed to help healthcare providers, researchers, journal readers, and editors evaluate the quality inherent in observational research studies of comparative effectiveness. The GRACE principles were developed by experienced academic and private sector researchers and were vetted over several years through presentation, critique, and consensus building among outcomes researchers, pharmacoepidemiologists, and other medical scientists and via formal review by the International Society of Pharmacoepidemiology. In contrast to other documents that guide systematic review and reporting, the GRACE principles are high-level concepts about good practice for nonrandomized comparative effectiveness research. The GRACE principles comprise a series of questions to guide evaluation. No scoring system is provided or encouraged, as interpretation of these observational studies requires weighing of all available evidence, tempered by judgment regarding the applicability of the studies to routine care.

Comparative effectiveness research: the view from a pharmaceutical company

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) represents the next stage in an evolution of research and knowledge development in regard to medical interventions. In this article we describe the challenges currently facing the innovative pharmaceuticals industry and briefly summarize the history of drug development, as context for the current movement to comparative effectiveness. CER should be considered alongside the wider field of health technology assessment (HTA), and we review the status of both CER and HTA internationally and their role in health policy. Limitations as to what can be achieved with HTA and limitations to the availability of evidence of comparative effectiveness at the time of market authorization provide ongoing challenges to all stakeholders. However, embracing CER is regarded as an essential step for the innovative pharmaceutical industry, as companies strive to more clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of their pipeline products with evidence that is compelling to payers and HTA agencies. Examples are given of how these evolving requirements from regulatory and HTA agencies are impacting on drug development efforts and how one company is responding. Finally, there are signs of increasing understanding and alignment across the various partners in drug development, registration and evaluation, and further suggestions are provided for consideration as the field matures and expands.

Good research practices for comparative effectiveness research: defining, reporting and interpreting nonrandomized studies of treatment effects using secondary data sources: the ISPOR Good Research Practices for Retrospective Database Analysis Task Force Report--Part I

OBJECTIVES

Health insurers, physicians, and patients worldwide need information on the comparative effectiveness and safety of prescription drugs in routine care. Nonrandomized studies of treatment effects using secondary databases may supplement the evidence based from randomized clinical trials and prospective observational studies. Recognizing the challenges to conducting valid retrospective epidemiologic and health services research studies, a Task Force was formed to develop a guidance document on state of the art approaches to frame research questions and report findings for these studies.

METHODS

The Task Force was commissioned and a Chair was selected by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Board of Directors in October 2007. This Report, the first of three reported in this issue of the journal, addressed issues of framing the research question and reporting and interpreting findings.

RESULTS

The Task Force Report proposes four primary characteristics-relevance, specificity, novelty, and feasibility while defining the research question. Recommendations included: the practice of a priori specification of the research question; transparency of prespecified analytical plans, provision of justifications for any subsequent changes in analytical plan, and reporting the results of prespecified plans as well as results from significant modifications, structured abstracts to report findings with scientific neutrality; and reasoned interpretations of findings to help inform policy decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparative effectiveness research in the form of nonrandomized studies using secondary databases can be designed with rigorous elements and conducted with sophisticated statistical methods to improve causal inference of treatment effects. Standardized reporting and careful interpretation of results can aid policy and decision-making.

Getting real performance out of pay-for-performance

CONTEXT

Most private and public health insurers are implementing pay-for-performance (P4P) programs in an effort to improve the quality of medical care. This article offers a paradigm for evaluating how P4P programs should be structured and how effective they are likely to be.

METHODS

This article assesses the current comprehensiveness of evidence-based medicine by estimating the percentage of outpatient medical spending for eighteen medical processes recommended by the Institute of Medicine.

FINDINGS

Three conditions must be in place for outcomes-based P4P programs to improve the quality of care: (1) health insurers must not fully understand what medical processes improve health (i.e., the health production function); (2) providers must know more about the health production function than insurers do; and (3) health insurers must be able to measure a patient's risk-adjusted health. Only two of these conditions currently exist. Payers appear to have incomplete knowledge of the health production function, and providers appear to know more about the health production function than payers do, but accurate methods of adjusting the risk of a patient's health status are still being developed.

CONCLUSIONS

This article concludes that in three general situations, P4P will have a different impact on quality and costs and so should be structured differently. When information about patients' health and the health production function is incomplete, as is currently the case, P4P payments should be kept small, should be based on outcomes rather than processes, and should target physicians' practices and health systems. As information improves, P4P incentive payments could be increased, and P4P may become more powerful. Ironically, once information becomes complete, P4P can be replaced entirely by "optimal fee-for-service."

Valuing reductions in on-the-job illness: 'presenteeism' from managerial and economic perspectives

This paper reports on a study of manager perceptions of the cost to employers of on-the-job employee illness, sometimes termed 'presenteeism,' for various types of jobs. Using methods developed previously, the authors analyzed data from a survey of more than 800 US managers to determine the characteristics of various jobs and the relationship of those characteristics to the manager's view of the cost to the firm of absenteeism and presenteeism. Jobs with characteristics that suggest unusually high cost (relative to wages) were similar in terms of their 'absenteeism multipliers' and their 'presenteeism multipliers.' Jobs with high values of team production, high requirements for timely output, and high difficulties of substitution for absent or impaired workers had significantly higher indicators of cost for both absenteeism and presenteeism, although substitution was somewhat less important for presenteeism.

Pharmacoeconomic analysis of caspofungin versus liposomal amphotericin B as empirical antifungal therapy for neutropenic fever

PURPOSE

An analysis was conducted that evaluated and compared the cost differences between caspofungin and liposomal amphotericin B when the medications were used as empirical antifungal therapy for persistent fever during neutropenia.

METHODS

Rates of drug use and impaired renal function (IRF) were based on data from published studies. IRF was defined as a doubling of the serum creatinine level or, if the creatinine level was elevated at enrollment, an increase of at least 1 mg/dL. The estimates of the costs for drug acquisition and treating IRF were derived using published data and applied to compare caspofungin with liposomal amphotericin B. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying the IRF and relative acquisition costs to assess the effect of these factors on the cost differences.

RESULTS

The acquisition costs per patient were 6942 dollars for liposomal amphotericin B and 3996 dollars for caspofungin. The estimated cost per patient from IRF was 3173 dollars for liposomal amphotericin B and 793 dollars for caspofungin. Combining drug acquisition and IRF costs, the overall treatment cost per patient for caspofungin was 5326 dollars less than for liposomal amphotericin B. In sensitivity analyses of drug costs, the price of liposomal amphotericin B would have to be 23.95 dollars per vial for the overall treatment costs to be equal.

CONCLUSION

Comparison of cost estimates derived from published data revealed that a combined estimate of acquisition costs and costs related to the treatment of IRF was lower for caspofungin than for liposomal amphotericin B for empirically treating patients with neutropenic fever.

Measuring the effects of work loss on productivity with team production

Using data from a survey of 800 managers in 12 industries, we find empirical support for the hypothesis that the cost associated with missed work varies across jobs according to the ease with which a manager can find a perfect replacement for the absent worker, the extent to which the worker functions as part of a team, and the time sensitivity of the worker's output. We then estimate wage 'multipliers' for 35 different jobs, where the multiplier is defined as the cost to the firm of an absence as a proportion (often greater than one) of the absent worker's daily wage. The median multiplier is 1.28, which supports the view that the cost to the firm of missed work is often greater than the wage.

The effect of age and bone mineral density on the absolute, excess, and relative risk of fracture in postmenopausal women aged 50-99: results from the National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA)

INTRODUCTION

This study evaluates the effect of age and bone mineral density (BMD) on the absolute, excess, and relative risk for osteoporotic fractures at the hip, wrist, forearm, spine, and rib within 3 years of peripheral BMD testing in postmenopausal women over a wide range of postmenopausal ages.

METHODS

Data were obtained from 170,083 women, aged 50-99 years, enrolled in the National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA) following recruitment from their primary care physicians' offices across the United States. Risk factors for fracture and peripheral BMD T-scores at the heel, forearm, or finger were obtained at baseline. Self-reported new fractures at the hip, spine, rib, wrist, and forearm were obtained from questionnaires at 1- and 3-year follow-ups. Absolute, excess (attributable to low BMD), and unadjusted and adjusted relative risks of fracture were calculated.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 5312 women reported 5676 fractures (868 hip, 2420 wrist/forearm, 1531 rib, and 857 spine). Absolute risk of fracture increased with age for all fracture sites. This age-effect was most evident for hip fracture--both the incidence and the excess risk of hip fracture for women with low BMD increased at least twofold for each decade increase in age. The relative risk for any fracture per 1 SD decrease in BMD was similar across age groups (p>0.07). Women with low BMD (T-score <-1.0) had a similar relative risk for fracture regardless of age.

CONCLUSIONS

At any given BMD, not only the absolute fracture risk but also the excess fracture risk increased with advancing age. Relative risk of fracture for low bone mass was consistent across all age groups from 50 to 99 years.

The assessment of chronic health conditions on work performance, absence, and total economic impact for employers

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and estimate total costs for chronic health conditions in the U.S. workforce for the Dow Chemical Company (Dow).

METHODS

Using the Stanford Presenteeism Scale, information was collected from workers at five locations on work impairment and absenteeism based on self-reported "primary" chronic health conditions. Survey data were merged with employee demographics, medical and pharmaceutical claims, smoking status, biometric health risk factors, payroll records, and job type.

RESULTS

Almost 65% of respondents reported having one or more of the surveyed chronic conditions. The most common were allergies, arthritis/joint pain or stiffness, and back or neck disorders. The associated absenteeism by chronic condition ranged from 0.9 to 5.9 hours in a 4-week period, and on-the-job work impairment ranged from a 17.8% to 36.4% decrement in ability to function at work. The presence of a chronic condition was the most important determinant of the reported levels of work impairment and absence after adjusting for other factors (P < 0.000). The total cost of chronic conditions was estimated to be 10.7% of the total labor costs for Dow in the United States; 6.8% was attributable to work impairment alone.

CONCLUSION

For all chronic conditions studied, the cost associated with performance based work loss or "presenteeism" greatly exceeded the combined costs of absenteeism and medical treatment combined.

Impact of 3-tier pharmacy benefit design and increased consumer cost-sharing on drug utilization

OBJECTIVE

To estimate responsiveness of prescription demand within 9 therapeutic classes to increased cost-sharing compared with constant cost-sharing.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective prescription claims analysis.

METHODS

Between 1999 and 2001, 3 benefit plans changed from a 2-tier to a 3-tier design (cases); 1 plan kept a 2-tier design (controls). Study subjects needed 24 months of continuous coverage and a prescription filled < OR = 3 months before the benefit change for a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agent (NSAID), a cyclooxygenase (COX-2) inhibitor, a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), a tricyclic antidepressant (TCA), an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, a calcium-channel blocker (CCB), an angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB), a statin, or a triptan. Changes in use were compared with the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Elasticity of demand among cases was calculated.

RESULTS

Generally, medication possession ratios decreased for cases and increased for controls between 1999 and 2000. Switch rates increased for cases and decreased for controls for all classes but CCBs. Switches to lower copayments for ACE inhibitors, statins, and triptans occurred more often for cases. Discontinuation-rate changes for cases were 2 to 8 times those for controls. Generic-substitution rates depended on availability and initial generic utilization. Elasticity of demand for drugs was generally low, -0.16 to -0.10, for asymptomatic conditions (ACE inhibitors, ARBs, CCBs, statins), and moderate, -0.60 to -0.24, for symptomatic conditions (COX-2 inhibitors, NSAIDs, triptans, SSRIs).

CONCLUSION

Use of retail prescription medications within 9 specific therapeutic classes decreased as copayment increased. Demand for pharmaceuticals was relatively inelastic with these copayment increases.

Cost-effectiveness analysis: from science to application

This article proposes ways to improve the credibility and use of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in healthcare decision-making. We argue that the major issue is not the credibility of CEA as a methodology; although there are methodologic challenges, they can be addressed. Two issues, however, will require effort on the part of stakeholders to achieve consensus. First, agreement must be reached regarding the standards of evidence required to support healthcare policy decisions. Second, and of greater importance, the process of healthcare resource allocation decision-making must be viewed as credible and legitimate. We believe that the legitimacy of policy decisions regarding healthcare resource allocation and the acceptance of CEA as a decision tool informing the decision process will require both broad-based stakeholder engagement and transparency throughout the process. For this to occur, stakeholder groups must come to consensus on how to address competing policy goals. Specifically, how should we balance the desires for equity, universal access to healthcare services and technology, and the right of individuals to secure the specific healthcare resources they want?

Caspofungin versus amphotericin B for candidemia: A pharmacoeconomic analysis

BACKGROUND

In a randomized, comparative, clinical trial, caspofungin was found to be as effective as amphotericin B deoxycholate (ampho B) for treating candidemia (favorable outcomes in 71.7% and 62.8% of patients, respectively) and exhibited a generally better safety profile, particularly with respect to impaired renal function (IRF) (P = 0.02).

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to examine whether cost savings generated from the reduced rates of IRF observed in the clinical trial would be enough to offset the higher acquisition cost of caspofungin relative to ampho B.

METHODS

We developed an economic model in which 100 hypothetical patients with candidemia were treated with caspofungin or ampho B. Rates of IRF and duration of drug therapy were taken from the clinical trial. Information on the cost of treating IRF was obtained through a search of MEDLINE using the terms amphotericin and cost, amphotericin and resource, amphotericin and hospital, and amphotericin and toxicity; and the medical subject headings kidney failure, acute/drug therapy; kidney failure, acute/epidemiology; kidney failure, acute/etiology; kidney/drug effects; cost of illness; costs and cost analysis; kidney failure, acute, and economics; and kidney failure, acute/economics. In addition, the Web site was searched for relevant references, and the Merck publication alert system was used. Antifungal drug costs were estimated using data from IMS Health. Costs were reported in year-2003 US dollars.

RESULTS

In the base case, the model projected that using caspofungin instead of ampho B would result in substantially lower treatment costs for IRF, which would more than offset the higher drug acquisition cost (cost-offset percentage, 122%), leading to a net mean savings of 758.60 US dollars per patient. These results were not very sensitive to the difference in daily drug cost, but were sensitive to the mean cost attributable to treating IRF. As that varied, the cost-offset percentage varied from 61% (substantial cost offset) to 183% (cost savings).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this economic model suggest that, based only on differences in drug acquisition cost and renal toxicity, the use of caspofungin instead of ampho B in patients with candidemia may be a cost-saving strategy from the perspective of a hospital.

Osteoporosis and fracture risk in women of different ethnic groups

Osteoporosis and 1-year fracture risk were studied in 197,848 postmenopausal American women from five ethnic groups. Weight explained differences in BMD, except among blacks, who had the highest BMD. One SD decrease in BMD predicted a 50% increased fracture risk in each group. Despite similar relative risks, absolute fracture rates differed.

INTRODUCTION

Most information about osteoporosis comes from studies of white women. This study describes the frequency of osteoporosis and the association between BMD and fracture in women from five ethnic groups.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was made up of a cohort of 197,848 community-dwelling postmenopausal women (7784 blacks, 1912 Asians, 6973 Hispanics, and 1708 Native Americans) from the United States, without known osteoporosis or a recent BMD test. Heel, forearm, or finger BMD was measured, and risk factor information was obtained; 82% were followed for 1 year for new fractures. BMD and fracture rates were compared, adjusting for differences in covariates.

RESULTS

By age 80, more than one-fifth of women in each ethnic group had peripheral BMD T scores <-2.5. Black women had the highest BMD; Asian women had the lowest. Only the BMD differences for blacks were not explained by differences in weight. After 1 year, 2414 new fractures of the spine, hip, forearm, wrist, or rib were reported. BMD at each site predicted fractures equally well within each ethnic group. After adjusting for BMD, weight, and other covariates, white and Hispanic women had the highest risk for fracture (relative risk [RR] 1.0 [referent group] and 0.95, 95% CI, 0.76, 1.20, respectively), followed by Native Americans (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.57, 1.32), blacks (RR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.38, 0.70), and Asian Americans (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.15, 0.66). In age- and weight-adjusted models, each SD decrease in peripheral BMD predicted a 1.54 times increased risk of fracture in each ethnic group (95% CI, 1.48-1.61). Excluding wrist fractures, the most common fracture, did not materially change associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnic differences in BMD are strongly influenced by body weight; fracture risk is strongly influenced by BMD in each group. Ethnic differences in absolute fracture risk remain, which may warrant ethnic-specific clinical recommendations.

Comparative Effectiveness: Asking The Right Questions, Choosing The Right Method

The Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act (MMA) of 2003 has placed renewed focus on assessing the comparative effectiveness of various therapeutic options. Unfortunately, all of the evidence needed to fully assess these options is rarely available to drug formulary decisionmakers. Comparative randomized trials frequently fail to find differences when there indeed are some, while decision-modeling approaches are more likely to identify differences where there are none. We consider the consequences of these strategies. This paper proposes a framework for using different methods to assess available evidence. We contend that choosing the appropriate method can occur only when there are clear policy goals.

How to present the business case for healthcare quality to employers

Many employers in the US are investing in new programmes to improve the quality of medical care and simultaneously shifting more of the healthcare costs to their employees without understanding the implications on the amount and type of care their employees will receive. These seemingly contradictory actions reflect an inability by employers to accurately assess how their health benefit decisions affect their profits. This paper proposes a practical method that employers can use to determine how much they should invest in the health of their workers and to identify the best benefit designs to encourage appropriate healthcare delivery and use. This method could also be of value to employers in other countries who are considering implementing programmes to improve employee health. The method allows a programme that improves workers' health to generate four financial benefits for an employer - reduced medical costs, reduced absences, improved on-the-job productivity, and reduced turnover - and uses accurate estimates of the benefits of reducing absences and improving productivity.

Reliability and Validity of the Stanford Presenteeism Scale

OBJECTIVE

This study reports the reliability and validity of the 13-item Stanford Presenteeism Scale (SPS). The SPS differs from similar scales by focusing on knowledge-based and production-based workers.

METHODS

Data were obtained from administrative and medical claims databases and from a survey that incorporated the SPS, SF-36, and the Work Limitations Questionnaire.

RESULTS

Sixty-three percent (7797) of employees responded. Cronbach's alpha (0.83) indicates adequate reliability. Factor analysis identified two underlying factors, "completing work" and "avoiding distraction." Knowledge-based workers load on "completing work" (alpha = 0.97), whereas production-based workers load on "avoiding distraction" (alpha = 0.98). There were significant and positive relationships between the SPS, SF-36, and Work Limitations Questionnaire.

CONCLUSIONS

The SPS demonstrates a high degree of reliability and validity and may be ideal for employers who seek a single scale to measure health-related productivity in a diverse employee population.

A randomized controlled open trial of population-based disease and case management in a Medicare Plus Choice health maintenance organization

INTRODUCTION

The object of this study was to examine the effect of population-based disease management and case management on resource use, self-reported health status, and member satisfaction with and retention in a Medicare Plus Choice health maintenance organization (HMO).

METHODS

Study design consisted of a prospective, randomized controlled open trial of 18 months' duration. Participants were 8504 Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who had been continuously enrolled for at least 12 months in a network model Medicare Plus Choice HMO serving a contiguous nine-county metropolitan area. Members were care managed with an expert clinical information system and frequent telephone contact. Main outcomes included self-reported health status measured by the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36), resource use measured by admission rates and bed-days per thousand per year, member satisfaction, and costs measured by paid claims.

RESULTS

More favorable outcomes occurred in the intervention group for satisfaction with the health plan (P < .01) and the social function domain as measured by SF-36 (P = .04). There was no difference in member retention or mortality between groups. Use of skilled nursing home services was significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control (616 vs 747 days per thousand members per year, P = .02). This reduction, however, did not lead to lower mean total expenditures in the intervention group compared with the control (6828 dollars per member for 18 months vs 7001 dollars, P = .61).

CONCLUSION

Population-based disease management and case management led to improved self-reported satisfaction and social function but not to a global net decrease in resource use or improved member retention.

Bone mineral density thresholds for pharmacological intervention to prevent fractures

BACKGROUND

Treatment intervention thresholds for prevention of osteoporotic fractures can be derived from reports from the World Health Organization (diagnostic criteria) and National Osteoporosis Foundation (treatment criteria). It is not known how well these thresholds work to identify women who will fracture and are therefore candidates for treatment interventions. We used data from the National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA) to examine the effect of different treatment thresholds on fracture incidence and numbers of women with fractures within the year following bone mineral density measurement.

METHODS

The study comprised 149 524 white postmenopausal women aged 50 to 104 years (mean age, 64.5 years). At baseline, bone mineral density was assessed by peripheral bone densitometry at the heel, finger, or forearm. New fractures during the next 12 months were self-reported.

RESULTS

New fractures were reported by 2259 women, including 393 hip fractures; only 6.4% had baseline T scores of -2.5 or less (World Health Organization definition for osteoporosis). Although fracture rates were highest in these women, they experienced only 18% of the osteoporotic fractures and 26% of the hip fractures. By National Osteoporosis Foundation treatment guidelines, 22.6% of the women had T scores of 2.0 or less, or -1.5 or less with 1 or more clinical risk factors. Fracture rates were lower, but 45% of osteoporotic fractures and 53% of hip fractures occurred in these women.

CONCLUSIONS

Using peripheral measurement devices, 82% of postmenopausal women with fractures had T scores better than -2.5. A strategy to reduce overall fracture incidence will likely require lifestyle changes and a targeted effort to identify and develop treatment protocols for women with less severe low bone mass who are nonetheless at increased risk for future fractures.