Testing the accuracy of the DRNNAGE software for age estimation in a modern Greek sample

Estimation of age-at-death from human skeletal remains is fundamental in forensic anthropology as part of the construction of the biological profile of the individual under study. At the same time, skeletal age-at-death estimation in adults is problematic due to the disparity between chronological and biological age, the important inter-individual variability at the rate of skeletal aging, and inherent biases in the available methodologies (e.g., age mimicry). A recent paper proposed a method for skeletal age-at-death estimation based on multiple anatomical traits and machine learning. A software was also created, DRNNAGE, for the easy implementation of this method. The authors of that study supported that their methods have very high repeatability and reproducibility, and the mean absolute error of the age estimation was ~6 years across the entire adult age span, which is particularly high and promising. This paper tests the proposed methodology on a modern documented Greek sample of 219 adult individuals from the Athens Collection, with age-at-death from 19 to 99 years old. The sample was split into males and females as well as into individuals under and over 50 years old. We also divided the sample in 10-year intervals. First, intra- and inter-observer error was estimated in order to assess repeatability and reproducibility of the variables employed for age-at-death estimation. Then, the validity (correct classification performance) of DRNNAGE for each anatomical region individually, as well as all combined, was evaluated on each demographic separately and on the pooled sample. According to the results, some of the variables showed very low repeatability and reproducibility, thus their use should be cautious. The DRNNAGE software showed overall highly accurate age-at-death estimates for individuals older than 50 years, but poor on younger adults, with only exception the cranial sutures, which performed surprisingly well for all age groups. Overall, these results support the importance of cross-validation and the use of population-specific methods in forensic anthropology.

The impact of age on the morphology of the 12th thoracic vertebral endplates

The current article explores the aging effects on the overall morphology of the endplates of the 12th thoracic vertebra (T12), while screening for sex differences. It further evaluates the suitability of T12 for estimating age-at-death in bioarcheaological contexts. We captured the morphology of the vertebral endplates, including the formation of osteophytes, in a novel continuous quantitative manner using digital photography. 168 Greek adults from the Athens Collection were used for modeling the aging effects and another 107 individuals from two Danish archaeological assemblages for evaluation. Regression analysis is based on generalized additive models for correlating age-at-death and morphological variation. Our proposed measurement method is highly reliable (R>0.98) and the main differences observed between sexes are size related. Aging has considerable effect on the endplate morphology of the T12 with the total area of the endplate, the area of the epiphyseal rim, and the shape irregularities of the endplate's external boundary being mostly affected. Multivariate regression shows that aging effects account up to 46% of the observed variation, although with differential expression between sexes. Correct age prediction on archaeological remains reached 33% with a prominent tendency for overestimation. The morphology of the T12 endplates is influenced by age and it can provide some insight with respect to the age-at-death of unidentified individuals, especially when other skeletal age markers are unavailable. Our proposed method provides an age-estimation framework for bioarchaeological settings, especially for estimating broader age ranges, such as discriminating between young and old adults.

Ancient DNA from Mesopotamia suggests distinct Pre-Pottery and Pottery Neolithic migrations into Anatolia

We present the first ancient DNA data from the Pre-Pottery Neolithic of Mesopotamia (Southeastern Turkey and Northern Iraq), Cyprus, and the Northwestern Zagros, along with the first data from Neolithic Armenia. We show that these and neighboring populations were formed through admixture of pre-Neolithic sources related to Anatolian, Caucasus, and Levantine hunter-gatherers, forming a Neolithic continuum of ancestry mirroring the geography of West Asia. By analyzing Pre-Pottery and Pottery Neolithic populations of Anatolia, we show that the former were derived from admixture between Mesopotamian-related and local Epipaleolithic-related sources, but the latter experienced additional Levantine-related gene flow, thus documenting at least two pulses of migration from the Fertile Crescent heartland to the early farmers of Anatolia.

The genetic history of the Southern Arc: A bridge between West Asia and Europe

By sequencing 727 ancient individuals from the Southern Arc (Anatolia and its neighbors in Southeastern Europe and West Asia) over 10,000 years, we contextualize its Chalcolithic period and Bronze Age (about 5000 to 1000 BCE), when extensive gene flow entangled it with the Eurasian steppe. Two streams of migration transmitted Caucasus and Anatolian/Levantine ancestry northward, and the Yamnaya pastoralists, formed on the steppe, then spread southward into the Balkans and across the Caucasus into Armenia, where they left numerous patrilineal descendants. Anatolia was transformed by intra-West Asian gene flow, with negligible impact of the later Yamnaya migrations. This contrasts with all other regions where Indo-European languages were spoken, suggesting that the homeland of the Indo-Anatolian language family was in West Asia, with only secondary dispersals of non-Anatolian Indo-Europeans from the steppe.

A genetic probe into the ancient and medieval history of Southern Europe and West Asia

Literary and archaeological sources have preserved a rich history of Southern Europe and West Asia since the Bronze Age that can be complemented by genetics. Mycenaean period elites in Greece did not differ from the general population and included both people with some steppe ancestry and others, like the Griffin Warrior, without it. Similarly, people in the central area of the Urartian Kingdom around Lake Van lacked the steppe ancestry characteristic of the kingdom's northern provinces. Anatolia exhibited extraordinary continuity down to the Roman and Byzantine periods, with its people serving as the demographic core of much of the Roman Empire, including the city of Rome itself. During medieval times, migrations associated with Slavic and Turkic speakers profoundly affected the region.

Integration patterns of the asymmetric components of the skull: A covariational statistical approach on a modern Greek sample

Objectives: The integration patterns of the asymmetric components of the skull can be informative, especially in the diagnosis and surgical treatment planning of patients. This research aims to explore the interactions of the asymmetric components between the mandible, the basicranium, and the upper face. Material and methods: The sample comprises 100 skulls of Greek adults and the three-dimensional coordinates of 35 landmarks, extracted from the cranial and mandibular virtual 3D bones, were analyzed using the generalized least-squares Procrustes method. The integration patterns of the asymmetric components of the shapes of the specific structures were evaluated through partial least-squares correlation analysis with a two-blocks approach. Results: When handling the skull regions separately, there is statistically significant integration of the asymmetric components between the mandible and the basicranium as well as between the mandible and the upper face. Furthermore, the mandible and the basicranium exhibit the strongest interaction among the three pairs examined. Conclusions: The asymmetric variation of the skull regions should be taken into consideration for surgical treatment planning. However, comparing our findings with other studies revealed that the utilization of the skull regions in the context of a structure as a whole while running the analysis, as well as different landmark combinations, may lead to different results. Furthermore, there might be population-specificity to certain integration patterns of the asymmetric component of the total shape variation among skull regions. Hence, surgical bone restoration, especially in the mandible, should consider overall skull asymmetry and population-specific data to ensure optimal integration.

Advancements in sex estimation using the diaphyseal cross-sectional geometric properties of the lower and upper limbs

This paper introduces an automated method for estimating sex from the lower and upper limbs based on diaphyseal CSG properties. The proposed method was developed and evaluated using 389 femurs, 412 tibias, and 404 humeri of adult individuals from a modern Greek reference sample, the Athens Collection. The skeletal properties, which were extracted with the CSG-Toolkit, were analyzed with step-wise DFA (evaluated with LOOCV) and subsequently with RBF kernel SVM supervised learning. SVM cross-validation was based on a 20-fold stratified random sample splitting as well as a chronological split based on year of birth to further assess the effect of secular change in sex estimation capacity. Maximum cross-validated classification accuracy from step-wise DFA reached 94.8% for the femur, 94.7% for the tibia, and 97.3% for the humerus, whereas SVM cross-validated results were similar although slightly lower, mainly due to the more strict cross-validation scheme. Our results suggest that the proposed sex estimation method is reasonably robust to secular change, since there was limited loss in classification accuracy between different chronological groups, despite the presence of secular change in stature of the Greek population during the examined period. The proposed method has been implemented as a function for the GNU Octave environment, named estimate_sex, which comprises a self-intuitive graphical user interface for facilitating sex estimation and is freely available under a suitable license.

Forensic sex estimation using the vertebrae: an evaluation on two European populations

Sex estimation is one of the primary steps for constructing the biological profile of skeletal remains leading to their identification in the forensic context. While the pelvis is the most sex diagnostic bone, the cranium and other post-cranial elements have been extensively studied. Earlier research has also focused on the vertebral column with varying results regarding its sex classification accuracy as well as the underlying population specificity. The present study focuses on three easily identifiable vertebrae, namely T1, T12, and L1, and utilizes two modern European populations, a Greek and a Danish, to evaluate their forensic utility in sex identification. To this end, 865 vertebrae from 339 individuals have been analyzed for sexual dimorphism by further evaluating the effects of age-at-death and population affinity on its expression. Our results show that T1 is the best sex diagnostic vertebra for both populations reaching cross-validated accuracy of almost 90%, while age-at-death has limited effect on its sexual dimorphism. On the contrary, T12 and L1 produced varying results ranging from 75 to 83% accuracy with the Greek population exhibiting distinctively more pronounced sexual dimorphism. Additionally, age-at-death had significant effect on sexual dimorphism of T12 and L1 and especially in the Greek female and Danish male groups. Our results on inter-population comparison suggest that vertebral sex discriminant functions, and especially those utilizing multiple measurements, are highly population specific and optimally suitable only for their targeted population. An open-source software tool to facilitate classifying new cases based on our results is made freely available to forensic researchers.

Advanced procedures for skull sex estimation using sexually dimorphic morphometric features

This paper introduces an automated method for estimating sex from cranial sex diagnostic traits by extracting and evaluating specialized morphometric features from the glabella, the supraorbital ridge, the occipital protuberance, and the mastoid process. The proposed method was developed and evaluated using two European population samples, a Czech sample comprising 170 crania reconstructed from anonymized CT scans and a Greek sample of 156 crania from the Athens Collection. It is based on a fully automatic algorithm applied on 3D models for extracting sex diagnostic morphometric features which are further processed by computer vision and machine learning algorithms. Classification accuracy was evaluated in a population specific and a population generic 2-way cross-validation scheme. Population-specific accuracy for individual morphometric features ranged from 78.5 to 96.7%, whereas population generic correct classification ranged from 71.7 to 90.8%. Combining all sex diagnostic traits in multi-feature sex estimation yielded correct classification performance in excess of 91% for the entire sample, whereas the sex of about three fourths of the sample could be determined with 100% accuracy according to posterior probability estimates. The proposed method provides an efficient and reliable way to estimate sex from cranial remains, and it offers significant advantages over existing methods. The proposed method can be readily implemented with the skullanalyzer computer program and the estimate_sex.m GNU Octave function, which are freely available under a suitable license.

Investigating the sex-related geometric variation of the human cranium

Accurate sexing methods are of great importance in forensic anthropology since sex assessment is among the principal tasks when examining human skeletal remains. The present study explores a novel approach in assessing the most accurate metric traits of the human cranium for sex estimation based on 80 ectocranial landmarks from 176 modern individuals of known age and sex from the Athens Collection. The purpose of the study is to identify those distance and angle measurements that can be most effectively used in sex assessment. Three-dimensional landmark coordinates were digitized with a Microscribe 3DX and analyzed in GNU Octave. An iterative linear discriminant analysis of all possible combinations of landmarks was performed for each unique set of the 3160 distances and 246,480 angles. Cross-validated correct classification as well as multivariate DFA on top performing variables reported 13 craniometric distances with over 85% classification accuracy, 7 angles over 78%, as well as certain multivariate combinations yielding over 95%. Linear regression of these variables with the centroid size was used to assess their relation to the size of the cranium. In contrast to the use of generalized procrustes analysis (GPA) and principal component analysis (PCA), which constitute the common analytical work flow for such data, our method, although computational intensive, produced easily applicable discriminant functions of high accuracy, while at the same time explored the maximum of cranial variability.

Sex determination by three-dimensional geometric morphometrics of craniofacial form

SUMMARY

The purpose of the present study is to define which regions of the cranium, the upper-face, the orbits and the nasal are the most sexually dimorphic, by using three-dimensional geometric morphometric methods, and investigate the effectiveness of this method in determining sex from the shape of these regions. The study sample consisted of 176 crania of known sex (94 males, 82 females) belonging to individuals who lived in Greece during the 20(th) century. The three-dimensional co-ordinates of 31 ecto-cranial landmarks were digitized using a MicroScribe 3DX contact digitizer. Goodall's F-test was performed in order to compare statistical differences in shape between males and females. Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) was used to obtain size and shape variables for statistical analysis. Shape, Size and Form analyses were carried out by logistic regression and discriminant function analysis. The results indicate that there are shape differences between the sexes in the upper-face and the orbits. The highest shape classification rate was obtained from the upper-face region. The centroid size of the caraniofacial and the orbital regions was smaller in females than males. Moreover, it was found that size is significant for sexual dimorphism in the upper-face region. As anticipated, the classification accuracy improves when both size and shape are combined. The findings presented here constitute a firm basis upon which further research can be conducted.

An attempt to predict tooth crown height using cementoenamel junction diameters and implications in the quantitative study of dental wear

SUMMARY

Dental wear has been used extensively in osteoarchaeological studies as a means of exploring dietary patterns and the use of teeth as tools. The present paper aims to test whether crown height can be predicted for premolars and molars based on the mesiodistal and buccolingual diameters of these teeth at the level of the cementoenamel junction (CEJ). Multiple linear regression was used with crown height as dependent variable and diameters at the CEJ as predictors. Our results found that there are cases where the impact of one predictor appears to be statistically significant. However, even in these cases the 95% confidence interval for the predicted value is so broad that makes the accurate determination of the crown height based on the buccolingual or/and mesiodistal diameters at the CEJ impossible.