Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations

Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.

Prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Navarre (Spain)

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignancies among males worldwide. In this study, overall and age-specific incidence and mortality trends are analyzed in order to present the past and current epidemiological situation of the disease in Navarre (Spain).

METHODS

Population-based incidence data from the 1975-2010 period, provided by the Cancer Registry of Navarre and prostate cancer specific mortality data for 1975-2013, provided by the Spanish Statistical Office, were used in the analysis. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, change-points and annual percentage changes (APC) were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis. One-dimensional P-spline models were used to estimate projections up to 2016.

RESULTS

Considerable increases of cancer incidence rates in men aged 45-74 years were observed, with APC of +4.5% (p<0.001), +9.5% (p<0.001) and +2.4% (p<0.05) in the 1975-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 periods, respectively. In the older than 74 age-group, an increase of incidence rates in the 1975-1999 period was registered (APC +3.3%, p<0.001), followed by a significant decrease up to 2010 (APC -4.0%, p<0.01). Mortality rates rose until 1995 (APC +2.2%, p<0.001) whereas a decline occurred afterwards up to 2013 (APC -3.4%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Even though overall prostate cancer incidence rates seem to have stabilized in 2002-2010 in Navarra, trends were different by age groups: increased in men 45-74 years old and decreased in the 75+ year age-group. A decline in mortality rates was observed in both age groups since about 1995. Changes in the use of prostate specific antigen test for screening in oncoming years could affect future prostate cancer trends.

Comparison of intravaginal 6.5mg (0.50%) prasterone, 0.3mg conjugated estrogens and 10μg estradiol on symptoms of vulvovaginal atrophy

The objective is to compare the effect of intravaginal dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA, prasterone), conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) and estradiol (E₂) on moderate to severe dyspareunia and/or vaginal dryness. In a review of available data, independent prospective, randomized, double-blind and placebo-controlled Phase III 12-week clinical trials involved daily administration of 6.5mg (0.50%) prasterone, daily (21days on/7days off) 0.3mg CEE, twice weekly 0.3mg CEE or 10μg E₂ daily for 2 weeks followed by twice weekly for 10 weeks. Vulvovaginal atrophy (VVA) symptoms were evaluated by questionnaires. The total severity score of dyspareunia decreased from baseline by 1.27 to 1.63 units with prasterone treatment, 1.4 with CEE and 1.23 in one statistically significant study with E₂ (combined symptoms). Decreases over placebo ranged from 0.35 to 1.21 with prasterone, 0.7 to 1.0 with CEE and 0.33 for the E₂ study. The total decreases in vaginal dryness severity ranged from 1.44 to 1.58 units for prasterone, 1.1 unit for CEE and 1.23 unit for E₂. The decreases over placebo of vaginal dryness intensity ranged from 0.30 to 0.43 unit for prasterone, 0.40 unit for CEE and 0.33 for the E₂ study with combined symptoms. Daily 6.5mg (0.50%) prasterone appears to be at least as efficacious as 0.3mg CEE or 10μg E₂ for treatment of the VVA symptoms. In summary, the beneficial effects on the VVA symptomatology can be obtained by the addition of a small amount of intravaginal prasterone to compensate for the low serum concentration of prasterone observed in the majority of women after menopause without concerns about systemic effects.

Serum steroid concentrations remain within normal postmenopausal values in women receiving daily 6.5mg intravaginal prasterone for 12 weeks

This study integrates all data obtained in women aged 40-80years enrolled with moderate to severe symptoms of vulvovaginal atrophy (VVA) who received daily intravaginal administration of 0.50% (6.5mg) dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA; prasterone) for 12weeks (n=723; ITT-S population) as compared with placebo (n=266; ITT-S population). To this end, serum steroid levels (DHEA, DHEA-sulfate (DHEA-S), androst-5-ene-3β, 17β-diol (5-diol), testosterone, dihydrotestosterone (DHT), androstenedione (4-dione), estrone (E1), estradiol (E2), estrone sulfate (E1-S), androsterone glucuronide (ADT-G), and androstane-3α, 17β-diol 17-glucuronide (3α-diol-17G)) were measured at Day 1 and Week 12 by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) following validation performed according to the FDA guidelines [1-6]. In agreement with the mechanisms of intracrinology where DHEA is exclusively transformed intracellularly into active sex steroids which act and are inactivated locally before being released as glucuronided or sulfated metabolites for elimination by the kidneys and liver, all sex steroids remained well within normal postmenopausal values following administration of intravaginal DHEA. Serum estradiol, the most relevant sex steroid, was measured after 12weeks of treatment at 3.36pg/ml (cITT-S population) or 19% below the normal postmenopausal value of 4.17pg/ml. On the other hand, serum E1-S, the best recognized marker of global estrogenic activity, shows an average value of 209pg/ml at 12 weeks compared to 220pg/ml in normal postmenopausal women. Moreover, serum ADT-G, the main metabolite of androgens, also remains well within normal postmenopausal values. The present data shows that a low daily intravaginal dose (6.5mg) of DHEA (prasterone) which is efficacious on the symptoms and signs of VVA, permits to achieve the desired local efficacy without systemic exposure, in agreement with the stringent mechanisms of menopause established after 500 million years of evolution where each cell in each tissue is the master of its sex steroid exposure.

Evaluation of the acceptability of intravaginal prasterone ovule administration using an applicator

The objective of the study is to evaluate the acceptability of the intravaginal administration of ovules/suppositories of DHEA (dehydroepiandrosterone, prasterone) for the treatment of vulvovaginal atrophy (VVA) in women with moderate to severe dyspareunia who were administered daily for 12 weeks intravaginal 0.50% (6.5 mg) DHEA or placebo. There were a total of 373 women in the per-protocol population who responded to the questionnaire for both treatment groups. While it was planned that the applicator would be evaluated as suitable if at least 80% of participants have a global score  ≤ 2 units, 99% and 100% of participants had a score  ≤ 2 units in the placebo and DHEA groups, respectively, for the global score (mean of 5 questions). When asked about like and dislike the technique of drug administration, 284 comments were positive, while 114 women gave no comment. About 92-94% of women indicated that they were very confident to be able use the applicator successfully in the future. The survey shows a high degree of satisfaction and of confidence to use the applicator successfully in the future.

Effect of Intravaginal Prasterone on Sexual Dysfunction in Postmenopausal Women with Vulvovaginal Atrophy

INTRODUCTION

Previous data have shown that intravaginal dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA, prasterone) improved all the domains of sexual function, an effect most likely related to the local formation of androgens from DHEA.

AIMS

To confirm in a placebo-controlled, prospective, double-blind and randomized study the benefits of daily intravaginal DHEA for 12 weeks on sexual function using the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaire.

METHODS

Placebo was administered daily to 157 women while 325 women received 0.50% (6.5 mg) DHEA daily for 12 weeks. All women were postmenopausal meeting the criteria of vulvovaginal atrophy (VVA), namely moderate to severe dyspareunia as their most bothersome symptom of VVA in addition to having ≤5% of vaginal superficial cells and vaginal pH > 5.0. The FSFI questionnaire was filled at baseline (screening and day 1), 6 weeks and 12 weeks. Comparison between DHEA and placebo of the changes from baseline to 12 weeks was made using the analysis of covariance test, with treatment group as the main factor and baseline value as the covariate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The six domains and total score of the FSFI questionnaire were evaluated.

RESULTS

The FSFI domain desire increased over placebo by 0.24 unit (+49.0%, P = 0.0105), arousal by 0.42 unit (+56.8%, P = 0.0022), lubrication by 0.57 unit (+36.1%, P = 0.0005), orgasm by 0.32 unit (+33.0%, P = 0.047), satisfaction by 0.44 unit (+48.3%, P = 0.0012), and pain at sexual activity by 0.62 unit (+39.2%, P = 0.001). The total FSFI score, on the other hand, has shown a superiority of 2.59 units in the DHEA group over placebo or a 41.3% greater change than placebo (P = 0.0006 over placebo).

CONCLUSION

The present data show that all the six domains of the FSFI are improved over placebo (from P = 0.047 to 0.0005), thus confirming the previously observed benefits of intravaginal DHEA on female sexual dysfunction by an action exerted exclusively at the level of the vagina, in the absence of biologically significant changes of serum steroids levels.

Serum levels of sex steroids and metabolites following 12 weeks of intravaginal 0.50% DHEA administration

The objective of the present phase III, placebo-controlled, double-blind, prospective and randomized study was to confirm the efficacy of daily intravaginal administration of 0.50% dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA; prasterone) ovules for 12 weeks on moderate to severe dyspareunia (or pain at sexual activity) as most bothersome symptom of vulvovaginal atrophy (VVA) while having serum steroid concentrations within normal postmenopausal values. To this end, serum levels of DHEA, DHEA-sulfate (DHEA-S), Androst-5-ene-diol-3β, 17β-diol (5-diol), testosterone, dihydrotestosterone (DHT), androstenedione (4-dione), estrone (E1), estradiol (E2), estrone sulfate (E1-S), androsterone glucuronide (ADT-G), and androstane-3α, 17β-diol 17-glucuronide (3α-diol-17G) were measured by validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). In agreement with the mechanisms of intracrinology, all serum sex steroids and metabolites concentrations after 12 weeks of daily intravaginal administration of 0.50% DHEA remain well within the limits of normal postmenopausal women. More specifically, the 12-week serum E2 concentration was measured at 22% below the average normal postmenopausal value (3.26 versus 4.17 pg/ml), thus eliminating any fear of E2 exposure outside the vagina. In addition, serum E1-S, a particularly reliable indicator of global estrogenic activity, shows serum levels practically superimposable to the value observed in normal postmenopausal women (219 versus 220 pg/ml). Similarly, serum ADT-G, the major metabolite of androgens, remains within normal postmenopausal values. The present data confirm the intracellular transformation of DHEA in the vagina resulting in local efficacy without any systemic exposure to sex steroids, observations which are in agreement with the physiological mechanisms of menopause.

Influence of the true number of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin instillations on the prognosis of non-muscle invasive bladder tumors

OBJECTIVES

To analyze if the true number of BCG instillations applied in non-muscle invasive bladder tumors has any influence on their prognosis as well as other tumor and clinical characteristics: age, sex, different protocols, BCG dose, whether primary or recurrent, solitary or multiple, tumor size G3 or Cis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 324 high grade NMIBC (15 TaG3, 184 T1G3, 125 Cis) out of 1491 cases included in the CUETO database were analyzed. Following 6 post transurethral resection (RTU) BCG instillations, the patients were scheduled to receive one instillation every two weeks (3-6 times), for a total of 9-12 instillations. One third of the dose (27 mg) (112 cases) or total dose of 81 mg (212 cases). Mean follow-up was 59.6 months. Statistical Analysis: Kaplan-Meier, Cox-regression (uni-multivariate).

RESULTS

A higher level of recurrence (p = 0.032) and progression (P = .013) risk as well as worse Ca-specific survival (P = .005) were obtained if there were fewer than 12 instillations with the Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression multivariate analysis. A 27 mg (P = .008) dosage and being a female (P < .001) were independent factors for a higher recurrence risk, but not for progression or Ca-specific survival. The remaining characteristics studied were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In accordance with the results obtained, we can conclude that the number of BCG instillations applied has some influence on the outcome of high grade NMIBC. The optimum number of instillations as well as their time of application must still be determined. A dose of 27 mg and being a female are predictive factors of recurrence.

The GHEP-EMPOP collaboration on mtDNA population data--A new resource for forensic casework

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) population data for forensic purposes are still scarce for some populations, which may limit the evaluation of forensic evidence especially when the rarity of a haplotype needs to be determined in a database search. In order to improve the collection of mtDNA lineages from the Iberian and South American subcontinents, we here report the results of a collaborative study involving nine laboratories from the Spanish and Portuguese Speaking Working Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (GHEP-ISFG) and EMPOP. The individual laboratories contributed population data that were generated throughout the past 10 years, but in the majority of cases have not been made available to the scientific community. A total of 1019 haplotypes from Iberia (Basque Country, 2 general Spanish populations, 2 North and 1 Central Portugal populations), and Latin America (3 populations from São Paulo) were collected, reviewed and harmonized according to defined EMPOP criteria. The majority of data ambiguities that were found during the reviewing process (41 in total) were transcription errors confirming that the documentation process is still the most error-prone stage in reporting mtDNA population data, especially when performed manually. This GHEP–EMPOP collaboration has significantly improved the quality of the individual mtDNA datasets and adds mtDNA population data as valuable resource to the EMPOP database (www.empop.org).

2006 GEP-ISFG collaborative exercise on mtDNA: reflections about interpretation, artefacts, and DNA mixtures

We report the results of the seventh edition of the GEP-ISFG mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) collaborative exercise. The samples submitted to the participant laboratories were blood stains from a maternity case and simulated forensic samples, including a case of mixture. The success rate for the blood stains was moderate ( approximately 77%); even though four inexperienced laboratories concentrated about one-third of the total errors. A similar success was obtained for the analysis of mixed samples (78.8% for a hair-saliva mixture and 69.2% for a saliva-saliva mixture). Two laboratories also dissected the haplotypes contributing to the saliva-saliva mixture. Most of the errors were due to reading problems and misinterpretation of electropherograms, demonstrating once more that the lack of a solid devised experimental approach is the main cause of error in mtDNA testing.

Analysis of body fluid mixtures by mtDNA sequencing: An inter-laboratory study of the GEP-ISFG working group

The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) working group of the GEP-ISFG (Spanish and Portuguese Group of the International Society for Forensic Genetics) carried out an inter-laboratory exercise consisting of the analysis of mtDNA sequencing patterns in mixed stains (saliva/semen and blood/semen). Mixtures were prepared with saliva or blood from a female donor and three different semen dilutions (pure, 1:10 and 1:20) in order to simulate forensic casework. All labs extracted the DNA by preferential lysis and amplified and sequenced the first mtDNA hypervariable region (HVS-I). Autosomal and Y-STR markers were also analysed in order to compare nuclear and mitochondrial results from the same DNA extracts. A mixed stain prepared using semen from a vasectomized individual was also analysed. The results were reasonably consistent among labs for the first fractions but not for the second ones, for which some laboratories reported contamination problems. In the first fractions, both the female and male haplotypes were generally detected in those samples prepared with undiluted semen. In contrast, most of the mixtures prepared with diluted semen only yielded the female haplotype, suggesting that the mtDNA copy number per cell is smaller in semen than in saliva or blood. Although the detection level of the male component decreased in accordance with the degree of semen dilution, it was found that the loss of signal was not consistently uniform throughout each electropherogram. Moreover, differences between mixtures prepared from different donors and different body fluids were also observed. We conclude that the particular characteristics of each mixed stain can deeply influence the interpretation of the mtDNA evidence in forensic mixtures (leading in some cases to false exclusions). In this sense, the implementation of preliminary tests with the aim of identifying the fluids involved in the mixture is an essential tool. In addition, in order to prevent incorrect conclusions in the interpretation of electropherograms we strongly recommend: (i) the use of additional sequencing primers to confirm the sequencing results and (ii) interpreting the results to the light of the phylogenetic perspective.

[Five years experience in the treatment of urinary lithiasis with the extracorporal lithotriptor MFL-5000]

We present a review of the treatments of the urinary calculations carried out in the Lithotrity Unit in its first five years of working with the Dornier lithotriptor MFL-5000. We describe the location and size of the calculations, distribution by age and sex of the patients, energy applied and time employed, and we compare our retreatment index and the number of sessions per calculation with those published by other authors.

GC subtyping and HIV infection in a Spanish population: no evidence of an association between GC subtypes and AIDS

Group-specific component (GC) subtyping was performed by isoelectric focusing in 318 Spanish drug users at risk for infection or infected by HIV (85 HIV seronegatives, 111 HIV seropositives without symptoms, 89 seropositives with symptoms, 33 AIDS patients) and 187 healthy individuals. There was no significant association between GC subtypes and susceptibility to HIV infection and/or progression to AIDS.

[Spontaneous rupture of a pathological bladder: contribution of a case]

A case is presented of spontaneous rupture in a pathological bladder. The authors point out the importance of retrograde cystographies to reveal intraperitoneal ruptures in te bladder and to check for the existence of associated lesions. A review is made of the etiology, clinical picture and treatment of spontaneous, intraperitoneal rupture of the bladder.