Validation of the Mayo Imaging Classification System for Predicting Kidney Outcomes in ADPKD

BACKGROUND

The Mayo Imaging Classification was developed to predict the rate of disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. This study aimed to validate its ability to predict kidney outcomes in a large multicenter autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease cohort.

METHODS

Included were patients with ≥1 height-adjusted total kidney volume (HtTKV) measurement and ≥3 eGFR values during ≥1-year follow-up. Mayo HtTKV class stability, kidney growth rates, and eGFR decline rates were calculated. The observed eGFR decline was compared with predictions from the Mayo Clinic future eGFR equation. The future eGFR prediction equation was also tested for nonlinear eGFR decline. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression models were used to assess time to kidney failure using Mayo HtTKV class as a predictor variable.

RESULTS

We analyzed 618 patients with a mean age of 47±11 years and mean eGFR of 64±25 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 at baseline. Most patients (82%) remained in their baseline Mayo HtTKV class. During a mean follow-up of 5.1±2.2 years, the mean total kidney volume growth rates and eGFR decline were 5.33%±3.90%/yr and -3.31±2.53 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year, respectively. Kidney growth and eGFR decline showed considerable overlap between the classes. The observed annual eGFR decline was not significantly different from the predicted values for classes 1A, 1B, 1C, and 1D but significantly slower for class 1E. This was also observed in patients aged younger than 40 years and older than 60 years and those with PKD2 mutations. A polynomial model allowing nonlinear eGFR decline provided more accurate slope predictions. Ninety-seven patients (16%) developed kidney failure during follow-up. The classification predicted the development of kidney failure, although the sensitivity and positive predictive values were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The Mayo Imaging Classification demonstrated acceptable stability and generally predicted kidney failure and eGFR decline rate. However, there was marked interindividual variability in the rate of disease progression within each class.

Higher beta-hydroxybutyrate ketone levels associated with a slower kidney function decline in ADPKD

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Dysregulated energy metabolism is a recently discovered key feature of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD). Cystic cells depend on glucose and are poorly able to use other energy sources such as ketone bodies. Raising ketone body concentration reduced disease progression in animal models of polycystic kidney diseases. Therefore, we hypothesized that higher endogenous plasma beta-hydroxybutyrate concentrations are associated with reduced disease progression in patients with ADPKD.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 670 patients with ADPKD participating in the DIPAK cohort, a multi-center prospective observational cohort study. Beta-hydroxybutyrate was measured at baseline using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Participants were excluded if they had type 2 diabetes, were using disease-modifying drugs (e.g. tolvaptan, somatostatin analogs), were not fasting, or had missing beta-hydroxybutyrate levels, leaving 521 participants for the analyses. Linear regression analyses were used to study cross-sectional associations and linear mixed-effect modeling for longitudinal associations.

RESULTS

Of the participants, 61% were female, with an age of 47.3 ± 11.8 years, a height-adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) of 834 (IQR 495-1327) ml/m, and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 63.3 ± 28.9 mL/min/1.73m2. The median concentration of beta-hydroxybutyrate was 94 (IQR 68-147) µmol/L. Cross-sectionally, beta-hydroxybutyrate was neither associated with eGFR nor with htTKV. Longitudinally, beta-hydroxybutyrate was positively associated with eGFR slope (B = 0.35 ml/min/1.73m2 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.61), p = 0.007), but not with kidney growth. After adjustment for potential confounders, every doubling in beta-hydroxybutyrate concentration was associated with an improvement in the annual rate of eGFR by 0.33 ml/min/1.73m2 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.57, p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

These observational analyses support the hypothesis that interventions that raise beta-hydroxybutyrate concentration could reduce the rate of kidney function decline in patients with ADPKD.

The association of glucagon with disease severity and progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an observational cohort study

Background

Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors and ketogenesis have been shown to ameliorate disease progression in experimental autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Glucagon is known to lower mTOR activity and stimulate ketogenesis. We hypothesized that in ADPKD patients, higher endogenous glucagon is associated with less disease severity and progression.

Methods

Data were analysed from 664 Dutch ADPKD patients participating in the Developing Intervention Strategies to Halt Progression of ADPKD observational cohort, including patients >18 years of age with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m² and excluding patients with concomitant diseases or medication use that may impact the natural course of ADPKD. The association between glucagon and disease severity and progression was tested using multivariate linear regression and mixed modelling, respectively.

Results

The median glucagon concentration was 5.0 pmol/L [interquartile range (IQR) 3.4-7.2) and differed significantly between females and males [4.3 pmol/L (IQR 2.9-6.0) and 6.6 (4.5-9.5), P < 0.001, respectively]. Intrasubject stability of glucagon in 30 patients showed a strong correlation (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.893; P < 0.001). Moreover, glucagon showed significant associations with known determinants (sex, body mass index and copeptin; all P < 0.01) and known downstream effects (glucose, haemoglobin A1c and cholesterol; all P < 0.05), suggesting that glucagon was measured reliably. Cross-sectionally, glucagon was associated with eGFR and height-adjusted total kidney volume, but in the opposite direction of our hypothesis, and these lost significance after adjustment for confounders. Glucagon was not associated with an annual decline in kidney function or growth in kidney volume.

Conclusions

These data do not provide evidence for a role of endogenous glucagon as a protective hormone in ADPKD. Intervention studies are needed to determine the relation between glucagon and ADPKD.