Modeling and predicting individual variation in COVID-19 vaccine-elicited antibody response in the general population

As we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are one of the most important tools in infectious disease control. To date, an unprecedentedly large volume of high-quality data on COVID-19 vaccinations have been accumulated. For preparedness in future pandemics beyond COVID-19, these valuable datasets should be analyzed to best shape an effective vaccination strategy. We are collecting longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, that consists of 2,407 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time courses of the vaccine-elicited antibody response based on mathematical modeling, we first identified basic demographic and health information that contributed to the main features of the antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We showed that these three features of antibody dynamics were partially explained by underlying medical conditions, adverse reactions to vaccinations, and medications, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit an "antibody score", which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used as a basis for identifying individuals with higher or lower antibody titers from basic demographic and health information. The score can be easily calculated by individuals themselves or by medical practitioners. Although the sensitivity of this score is currently not very high, in the future, as more data become available, it has the potential to identify vulnerable populations and encourage them to get booster vaccinations. Our mathematical model can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.

Relationship between the inclusion/exclusion criteria and sample size in randomized controlled trials for SARS-CoV-2 entry inhibitors

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has been ongoing since 2019 is still ongoing and how to control it is one of the international issues to be addressed. Antiviral drugs that reduce the viral load in terms of reducing the risk of secondary infection are important. For the general control of emerging infectious diseases, establishing an efficient method to evaluate candidate therapeutic agents will lead to a rapid response. We evaluated clinical trial designs for viral entry inhibitors that have the potential to be effective pre-exposure prophylactic drugs in addition to reducing viral load after infection. We used a previously developed simulation of clinical trials based on a mathematical model of within-host viral infection dynamics to evaluate sample sizes in clinical trials of viral entry inhibitors against COVID-19. We assumed four measures as outcomes, namely change in log10-transformed viral load from symptom onset, PCR positive ratio, log10-transformed viral load, and cumulative viral load, and then sample sizes were calculated for drugs with 99 % and 95 % antiviral efficacy. Consistent with previous results, we found that sample sizes could be dramatically reduced for all outcomes used in an analysis by adopting inclusion/exclusion criteria such that only patients in the early post-infection period would be included in a clinical trial. A comparison of sample sizes across outcomes demonstrated an optimal measurement schedule associated with the nature of the outcome measured for the evaluation of drug efficacy. In particular, the sample sizes calculated from the change in viral load and from viral load tended to be small when measurements were taken at earlier time points after treatment initiation. For the cumulative viral load, the sample size was lower than that from the other outcomes when the stricter inclusion/exclusion criteria to include patients whose time since onset is earlier than 2 days was used. We concluded that the design of efficient clinical trials should consider the inclusion/exclusion criteria and measurement schedules, as well as outcome selection based on sample size, personnel and budget needed to conduct the trial, and the importance of the outcome regarding the medical and societal requirements. This study provides insights into clinical trial design for a variety of situations, especially addressing infectious disease prevalence and feasible trial sizes. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Antithrombotic monotherapy for stable coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation patients with and without prior coronary artery revascularization: Insights from the AFIRE trial

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The Japan Cardiovascular Research Foundation under a contract with Bayer Yakuhin

Background

The AFIRE (Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Events With Rivaroxaban in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease) trial demonstrated that rivaroxaban monotherapy was noninferior to combination therapy with rivaroxaban plus a single antiplatelet therapy regarding efficacy and superior for safety endpoints in patients with atrial fibrillation and stable coronary artery disease including patients not requiring revascularization [prior percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or bypass grafting (CABG)].

Purpose

The aim of this post-hoc subgroup analysis was to investigate the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban monotherapy compared to combination therapy in patients with and without prior revascularization.

Methods

Among 2,215 patients included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis in the AFIRE trial, 1445 patients (65.2%) had undergone previous PCI alone, and 252 (11.4%) had undergone previous CABG. The remaining 518 patients (23.4%) was categorized as a group without prior revascularization and then compared with a group with prior revascularization (PCI or CABG). The primary efficacy end point was a composite of stroke, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring revascularization, or death from any cause. The primary safety end point was major bleeding, according to the criteria of the International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis.

Results

In 1697 patients with prior revascularization, efficacy and safety endpoints of rivaroxaban monotherapy were superior to combination therapy (efficacy: HR 0.62, 95%CI 0.45-0.85, p=0.003; safety: HR 0.62, 95%CI 0.39-0.98, p=0.040), whereas there were no significant differences in efficacy and safety endpoints among 518 patients without prior revascularization (efficacy: HR 1.19, 95%CI 0.67-2.11, p=0.553; safety: HR 0.47, 95%CI 0.18-1.26, p=0.125). There was a borderline interaction of efficacy endpoint (P for interaction=0.055) by randomized treatment assignment (Figure 1 and Figure 2). Compared with combination therapy, the safety benefit of rivaroxaban monotherapy on any bleeding was significant in patients without prior revascularization (HR 0.59, 95%CI 0.38-0.93, p=0.022).

Conclusions

In patients with prior PCI or CABG, rivaroxaban monotherapy resulted in more favorable safety and efficacy outcomes than combination therapy. There was a borderline interaction for primary efficacy outcome between prior revascularization and anti-thrombotic therapy.

Involvement of growth differentiation factor 15 in paradoxical relationship between body mass index and mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease; The ANOX Study

Background

Obesity is a well-established risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidemia, leading to coronary artery disease (CAD). Nevertheless, body mass index (BMI) is inversely associated with cardiovascular (CV) mortality in patients with cardiac disorders, termed “obesity paradox”. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear.

Purpose

To clarify important factors involved in the pathogenesis of obesity paradox.

Methods

Using data from a multicenter, prospective cohort of 2,418 patients with suspected or known CAD enrolled in the ANOX study, we assessed the relationship between BMI at baseline and the incidence of CV death over 3 years, and investigated the involvement of several endocrine factors which were previously reported to have some roles in obesity and heart diseases, such as adiponectin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), in the relationship between BMI and CV death.

Results

In Kaplan-Meier analyses, the lower quartiles of BMI and the higher quartiles of adiponectin levels were paradoxically associated with the higher cumulative incidence of CV death. To clarify the important factors involved in the paradoxical association between BMI or adiponectin and mortality, we first investigated independent determinants for BMI and adiponectin levels respectively, using multiple stepwise regression analyses among many clinical factors, and then narrow down the prognostic factors commonly associated with BMI and adiponectin, which were age, hemoglobin and NT-proBNP. Interestingly, circulating levels of GDF15 were significantly correlated with NT-proBNP levels, and the presence of anemia raised the gradient of the correlation line in a scatter plot (without anemia, r=0.139, p<0.0001; with anemia, r=0.228, p<0.0001). Moreover, the highest GDF15 quartile showed significantly lower BMI and higher adiponectin levels compared to the lower quartiles (p<0.001 and p<0.001, respectively, by Student t-test). In Cox proportional hazard models, hazard ratios (HRs) of BMI (per 1-unit increase) were 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85–0.96) for CV death. Additional adjustment for hemoglobin, NT-proBNP, adiponectin or GDF15 diminished the statistical significance (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87–0.99], 0.95 [0.89–1.01], 0.92 [0.87–0.99], or 0.93 [0.87–0.99], respectively).

Conclusions

The lower BMI and the higher adiponectin levels were paradoxically associated with the higher incidence of CV death in patients with CAD. This paradox may be mediated by cardiac endocrine factors induced by cardiac stresses, including GDF-15 in addition to natriuretic peptides.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

Usefulness of echocardiographic parameters in predicting the incidence of ischemic stroke in Japanese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS). We developed a novel risk score of IS (HELT-E2S2 score) in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients from the combined database of 5 major AF registries in Japan. However, this score does not include echocardiographic (Echo) parameters that have been reported to be risk factors of IS, such as left atrial diameter (LAD) enlargement or increased relative wall thickness (RWT) of left ventricle (LV).

Purpose

To investigate the predictive value of Echo parameters in Japanese patients with NVAF.

Methods

After excluding patients without the Echo data, 6,032 NVAF patients were analyzed in the present study. LAD was measured in the parasternal long axis view at the end-ventricular systole. RWT was calculated as (2x posterior wall thickness)/ LV end-diastolic dimension. We compared clinical characteristics and the incidence of IS between NVAF patients divided by LAD level (High/Low LAD group) and RWT level (High/Low RWT group). To balance the follow-up period among the registries, event data from individuals whose follow-up period exceeded 730 days were excluded from the analysis.

Results

The optimal cut-off value of LAD and RWT to predict the incidence of IS with the receiver operating characteristic analysis was 43.3 mm and 0.4167, respectively. Between the High/Low LAD groups (High LAD: n=2,640 vs. Low LAD: n=3,392), age (70.3±12.1 vs. 68.3±12.5 years; p<0.001), CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.02±1.84 vs. 2.57±1.78; p<0.001), HELT-E2S2 score (2.20±1.31 vs. 1.55±1.33; p<0.001), the prescription of oral anticoagulants (OACs) (69.5 vs. 51.5%; p<0.001), LV ejection fraction (60.4±13.4 vs. 64.4±10.7%; p<0.001) and RWT (0.401±0.091 vs. 0.396±0.082; p=0.02) were significantly different. Between the High/Low RWT groups (High RWT: n=2,293 vs. Low RWT: n=3,739), percentage of female (35.6 vs. 27.8%; p<0.001), age (71.2±12.1 vs. 68.0±12.4 years; p<0.001), CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.08±1.82 vs. 2.58±1.79; p<0.001), HELT-E2S2 score (2.10±1.39 vs. 1.67±1.31; p<0.001), the prescription of OACs (62.6 vs. 57.4%; p<0.001), LV ejection fraction (65.5±9.9 vs. 60.9±13.0%; p<0.001) and LAD (43.0±8.1 vs. 42.4±8.3; p=0.004) were significantly different. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence of IS was different between the groups during the median follow-up period of 730 days (High LAD vs. Low LAD; 1.82 vs. 1.00 per 100 person-years; p<0.001, by log-rank test, High RWT vs. Low RWT; 1.86 vs. 1.06; p<0.001) (Figure). Both High LAD (hazard ratio: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.12–2.46; p=0.01) and High RWT (hazard ratio: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01–2.04; p=0.045) were independent predictors of the incidence of IS after adjustment by the components of the HELT-E2S2 score and other clinically relevant variables including co-existing diseases, gender, and the prescription of OACs (Table).

Conclusion

Echo parameters, LAD and RWT, were independently associated with the incidence of IS among Japanese patients with NVAF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

Association of beta blocker use with new-onset heart failure and mortality in atrial fibrillation without pre-existing heart failure: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Heart failure (HF) is one of the major complications in atrial fibrillation (AF). We previously reported that not a few AF patients without pre-existing HF (defined as prior HF hospitalization, New York Heart Association functional class≥2, or left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)<40%) subsequently developed new-onset HF. Beta blockers are the established therapy for HF, but it remains unclear whether beta blockers prevent new-onset HF and improve outcomes in AF patients without preexisting HF.

Methods

In the Fushimi AF registry, 778 of 3,262 patients without pre-existing HF were receiving beta blockers at baseline. We investigated the incidence of new-onset HF defined as cardiac death or HF hospitalization, and all-cause death in a propensity-matched cohort (N=1,198; mean age, 71 years; 39% female; mean LVEF, 66%). Additionally, annual follow-up prescription data before the onset of events were collected in 294 of patients with beta blockers and 395 of those without beta blockers. We also investigated the association of starting or stopping beta blockers with the incidence of new-onset HF and all-cause death.

Results

During the median follow-up of 5.8 years, new-onset HF and all-cause death occurred in 77 (12.9%) and 118 (19.7%) of patients with beta blockers, and 70 (11.7%) and 131 (21.9%) of those without beta blockers, respectively. Incidence of new-onset HF was comparable between patients with and without beta blockers (Figure 1), and incidence of all-cause death was also comparable between the two groups (Figure 2). In exploratory subgroup analyses, there was no interaction in the association of beta blockers with the incidence of events, except for pulse rate for new-onset HF and left atrial size for all-cause death. Hazard ratio of beta blockers for new-onset HF tended to be lower in patients with higher pulse rates (>84 bpm) (Figure 1), and that for all-cause death was lower in those without left atrial enlargement (Figure 2). Of patients with follow-up prescription data, beta blockers were stopped in 55 (18.7%) and started in 97 (24.6%) patients, respectively. Patients with starting beta blockers had higher pulse rate (78.5±17.3 vs 74.9±13.9 bpm; p=0.03) and more symptomatic AF (58.8% vs 46.0%; p=0.03) compared to those without starting beta blockers, while there was no difference in baseline characteristics between those with and without stopping beta blockers. During the follow-up, the incidences of new-onset HF and all-cause death were also comparable between the patients with and without stopping beta blockers and those with and without starting beta blockers.

Conclusion

Beta blockers were not associated with the incidence of new-onset HF and all-cause death in AF patients without pre-existing HF. However, the exploratory subgroup analyses suggested the existence of subjects who may benefit from beta blockers.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Novartis Pharma, MSD, Sanofi-Aventis, and Takeda Pharmaceutical.

Vascular endothelial factor C and D in patients with heart failure with preserved, mildly reduced, and reduced ejection fraction: the PREHOSP-CHF study

Background

The lymphatic system has been suggested to play an important role in cardiovascular diseases including heart failure (HF). Vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C) and D (VEGF-D) are key regulators of lymphangiogenesis, and we recently reported the association of low VEGF-C with the risk of all-cause death and high VEGF-D with the risk of HF hospitalization in patients with HF.

Purpose

To investigate the association of VEGF-C and VEGF-D with prognosis in patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (EF) (HFpEF: EF≥50%), mildly reduced EF (HFmrEF: EF, 40–49%), and reduced EF (HFrEF: EF<40%).

Methods

The PREHOSP-CHF study is a multicenter prospective cohort study to determine the predictive value of angiogenesis-related biomarkers in HF. A total of 1,024 patients (mean age 75.5±12.6 years; 58.7% male) admitted to acute decompensated HF were included in the analyses. Serum levels of VEGF-C and VEGF-D, as well as N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high sensitivity cardiac troponin-I (hs-cTnI), high sensitivity C reactive protein, were measured at the time of discharge. Patients were followed-up over two years.

Results

The numbers of HFpEF, HFmrEF, and HFrEF were 429 (41.9%), 186 (18.2%), and 409 (39.9%), respectively. HFpEF patients were older, more likely to be female, and had more hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and anemia, but less coronary artery disease. NT-proBNP and hs-cTnI levels increased with decreasing EF. VEGF-C levels decreased with increasing EF (median [interquartile range]: HFpEF, 4508 [3318–5919] pg/ml; HFmrEF, 4719 [3663–6203] pg/ml; HFrEF, 5023 [3804–6382] pg/ml), whereas VEGF-D levels were comparable among the three EF groups (HFpEF, 404.6 [293.1–560.3] pg/ml; HFmrEF, 386.0 [298.5–556.3] pg/ml; HFrEF, 414.2 [296.1–557.3] pg/ml). In multivariate stepwise logistic regression analyses, anemia and high NT-proBNP were independently associated with low VEGF-C levels, and high NT-proBNP was independently associated with high VEGF-D levels, across all the EF groups. During the follow-up, incidences of all-cause death and HF hospitalizations were similar among the three EF groups (log-rank P=0.6 for all-cause death, and log-rank P=0.3 for HF hospitalization). On multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses including established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers, VEGF-C levels tended to be inversely associated with the incidence of all-cause death in patients with HFpEF and HFrEF (Figure). On the contrary, VEGF-D levels were significantly and positively associated with the incidence of HF hospitalization in patients with HFpEF, and tended to be positively associated with it in patients with HFmrEF and HFrEF (Figure).

Conclusions

Low VEGF-C was associated with the risk of all-cause death in patients with HFpEF and HFrEF, while high VEGF-D was associated with the risk of HF hospitalization especially in HFpEF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of atrial fibrillation patients with peripheral artery disease: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) represents the common arrhythmia and increases the risk of thromboembolism. Risk assessment for thromboembolism is important for the management of AF patients. Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is identified as a risk factor for thromboembolism in CHA2DS2-VASc score. However, there are little data on clinical characteristics and cardiovascular events of AF patients with PAD.

Purpose

In this study, we investigated the clinical characteristics and outcomes of AF patients with PAD.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry, a community-based prospective survey, was designed to enroll all of the AF patients who visited the participating medical institutions in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011 and follow up data including prescription status were available in 4,464 patients from March 2011 to August 2021. Median follow-up period was 1,848 days.

Results

Of 4,464 patients, 183 patients had PAD (4.1%; PAD group). The mean age was higher in PAD group than no-PAD group (PAD group vs. no-PAD group: 76.7 vs. 73.5; p<0.01). Patients with PAD had more co-morbidities such as stroke, systemic embolism, congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia coronary artery disease and chronic kidney disease than those without PAD. Thus, CHADS2 score, CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were higher in PAD group than no-PAD group (2.81 vs. 2.00; p<0.01, 5.17 vs. 3.30; p<0.01, 2.42 vs. 1.71; p<0.01, respectively). The proportion of patients with oral anticoagulant was similar between the two groups and the proportion of patients with antiplatelet drug was higher in PAD group than no-PAD group (59.0% vs. 55.6%; p=0.36, 62.9% vs. 24.7%; p<0.01, respectively). The incidences of all-cause death, cardiac death and myocardial infarction were higher in PAD group than no-PAD group (11.4 vs. 4.6 per 100 person-years; log-rank p<0.01, 1.7 vs. 0.8 per 100 person-years; log-rank p<0.01, 1.2 vs. 0.2 per 100 person-years; log-rank p<0.01). However, the incidence of stroke or systemic embolism was similar between the two groups (2.9 vs. 2.2 per 100 person-years, log-rank p=0.19). Finally, the incidence of composite of cardiac death, stroke, systemic embolism or myocardial infarction was higher in PAD group than no-PAD group (6.0 vs. 3.0 per 100 person-years; log-rank p<0.01).

Conclusion

AF patients with PAD had significantly higher risk for death and cardiac events, whereas the incidence of thromboembolism was similar between AF patients with and without PAD.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development

Associations of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 with cardiovascular events and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation and suspected or known coronary artery disease: the EXCEED-J study

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of stroke. Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), a vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) antagonist, has been suggested as a marker of endothelial dysfunction, which are associated with both AF and coronary artery disease (CAD). Recently, we demonstrated that sFlt-1 is independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE) in patients with suspected or known CAD. However, the prognostic utility of sFlt-1 in patients with AF remains unknown.

Methods

Using data from a multicenter, prospective cohort of 3255 patients with suspected or known CAD, we investigated whether AF modifies the prognostic utility of sFlt-1. Heparin-free serum levels of sFlt-1, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-I, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, VEGF, and placental growth factor were measured in 324 patients with AF and 2931 patients without AF. The primary outcome was MACE defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke. The secondary outcomes were all-cause death, CV death, stroke, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and coronary/peripheral artery revascularization. The biomarkers were natural log-transformed for use as continuous variables.

Results

After adjustment for potential clinical confounders including anticoagulant drug use, sFlt-1 was significantly associated with MACE (hazard ratio for 1 standard deviation increase [HR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14–2.08), CV death (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.10–2.48), and stroke (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.16–3.10), but not with all-cause death (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.99–1.73), HF hospitalization (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.73–1.25), or revascularization (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.74–1.28) in patients with AF, whereas sFlt-1 was significantly associated with MACE (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02–1.37), all-cause death (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05–1.34), CV death (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.03–1.48), and HF hospitalization (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.11–1.42), but not with stroke (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.81–1.33) or revascularization (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95–1.07) in patients without AF. Among other biomarkers, only VEGF was significantly associated with MACE (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02–2.44), and no biomarkers were significantly associated with CV death or stroke in patients with AF. sFlt-1 added incremental prognostic information for MACE (P=0.005 for net reclassification improvement [NRI], P=0.026 for integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]) and stroke (P=0.034 for NRI, P=0.018 for IDI), but not for CV death (P=0.021 for NRI, P=0.134 for IDI), to the model with potential clinical confounders in patients with AF.

Conclusions

sFlt-1 independently predicted MACE and stroke in patients with AF and suspected or known CAD. sFlt-1 may serve as a novel prognostic biomarker to stratify the risk of MACE and stroke in patients with AF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Health Labour Sciences Research Grant (2013-2014), AMED (2015-2017, Grant Number JP17ek0210008)

Association of cardiothoracic ratio with heart failure hospitalization in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Chest radiography is the most common diagnostic imaging test in clinical medicine, and the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) is a readily available and non-invasive tool with which to assess the volume status and cardiomegaly. However, it remains unknown whether CTR on chest radiography is associated with the incidence of HF hospitalization in AF patients remains unclear.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,489 patients by the end of August 2021. In the present study, 3,727 patients with available data of CTR were examined. We divided the patients into two groups according to their CTR at baseline; Higher group (CTR ≥50.0%, n=2,696) and Lower group (CTR <50.0%, n=1,031), and compared the clinical background and outcomes between the two groups.

Results

The proportion of female was grater in Higher group, and the patients in Higher group were older. The patients in Higher group had higher prevalence of HF, hypertension and chronic kidney disease. During the median follow-up of 3,033 days, in Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence rates of HF hospitalization were higher in Higher group (Higher group: 2.5% per person-year vs. Lower group: 1.1%; p<0.01). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that higher CTR (≥50.0%) was an independent determinant of the incidence of HF hospitalization. Furthermore, when we divided the patients into four groups based on the quartile of CTR; Q1 (CTR<49.0%), Q2 (49.0≤CTR<53.8%), Q3 (53.8≤CTR<59.0%), Q4 (59.0%≤CTR), the incidence of HF hospitalization was more frequent in patients with higher CTR, regardless of the presence or absence of prior hospitalization for HF (Figure).

Conclusion

In Japanese AF patients, patients with higher CTR had significantly higher incidence of HF hospitalization, regardless of the prevalence of prior hospitalization for HF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Effect of rivaroxaban monotherapy vs. combination with anti-platelet therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation and stable coronary artery disease across different body mass index categories

Background

The AFIRE (Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Events With Rivaroxaban in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease) trial showed both noninferiority for efficacy and superiority for safety endpoints of rivaroxaban monotherapy compared to rivaroxaban plus antiplatelet therapy (combination therapy) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and stable coronary artery disease (CAD). However, no accumulating evidence regarding efficacy and safety of these fixed-dose direct oral anticoagulant therapy was available in underweight and obese patients.

Purpose

The aim of this post-hoc analysis of the AFIRE trial was to evaluate outcomes of rivaroxaban monotherapy (vs. combination therapy) in patients with AF and stable CAD across body mass index (BMI) categories.

Methods

Patients were categorized into groups 1 (underweight: BMI of <18.5 kg/m2), 2 (normal: BMI of 18.5 to <25 kg/m2), 3 (overweight: BMI of 25 to <30 kg/m2), and 4 (obesity: BMI of ≥30 kg/m2). Efficacy (a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring revascularization, stroke, or systemic embolism) and safety (major bleeding defined according to International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria) were compared between rivaroxaban monotherapy and combination therapy across BMI categories.

Results

We analyzed 2,054 patients with a median age of 75.0 (interquartile range [IQR], 69 to 80)) years old and CHA2DS2-VASc of 4 (IQR, 3 to 5). Group 1 through 4 included 72 (3.5%), 1,158 (56.4%), 680 (33.1%), 144 (7.0%) patients and 62.3%, 52.3%, 36.2%, and 30.3% were received reduced dose of rivaroxaban, respectively. Although the sample sizes for group 1 and 4 were limited, monotherapy was superior to combination therapy for efficacy in group 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.95) and safety in group 3 (HR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.62), whereas a significant difference in the endpoints was not observed in the other BMI categories. Impact of monotherapy on endpoints did not have a significant interaction in BMI.

Conclusions

Rivaroxaban monotherapy had similar effect on prognosis across all BMI categories in patients with AF and stable CAD.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The Japan Cardiovascular Research Foundation based on a contract with Bayer Yakuhin, Ltd

Serum amyloid A-low-density-lipoprotein complex and mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease: the ANOX study

Background

Serum amyloid A-low-density-lipoprotein (SAA-LDL) is a complex formed from the oxidative interaction between SAA and LDLs. A relatively small-scale study has shown that circulating SAA-LDL levels may serve as a prognostic marker in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the prognostic value of SAA-LDL should be confirmed in a larger-scale cohort study.

Methods

Using data from a multicenter, prospective cohort of 2416 patients with suspected or known CAD enrolled in the ANOX (Development of Novel Biomarkers Related to Angiogenesis or Oxidative Stress to Predict Cardiovascular Events) study, we assessed the prognostic value of serum levels of SAA-LDL. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke. Patients were followed up over 3 years.

Results

Stepwise regression analysis including baseline data on potential clinical confounders (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, current smoking, estimated glomerular filtration rate, the Gensini score, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, previous heart failure hospitalization, atrial fibrillation, malignancies, anemia, antihypertensive drug use, statin use, and aspirin use) and established cardiovascular biomarkers (i.e., N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I [hs-cTnI], and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]) revealed that independent determinants of SAA-LDL levels were female sex, dyslipidemia, the Gensini score, absence of statin use, hs-cTnI, and hs-CRP. After adjusting for potential clinical confounders and established cardiovascular biomarkers, the highest quartile of SAA-LDL levels (vs. the lowest quartile) was significantly associated with the incidence of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–2.26), but not with that of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.59–2.10) or MACE (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 0.97–2.57). Stratified analyses revealed that this association was pronounced in patients with low hs-cTnI (<75th percentile) (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.06–3.30) and in patients with low hs-CRP levels (≤1.0 mg/L) (HR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.17–4.79).

Conclusions

Elevated SAA-LDL levels were independently associated with the risk of all-cause death in patients with suspected or known CAD. The SAA-LDL level appears to serve as a prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in relatively low-risk patients with low hs-cTnI (<75th percentile) or low hs-CRP (≤1.0 mg/L).

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

The association of left ventricular ejection fraction with incident heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of incident heart failure (HF). Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is an important prognostic parameter in patients with HF. However, little is known regarding the association of LVEF with incident HF in patients with AF.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between LVEF at enrollment and incidence of HF hospitalization during follow-up period in patients with AF.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of patients with AF in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,489 patients by the end of August 2021. In the present study, we investigated 3,544 patients with the data of LVEF at enrollment. We divided the patients into 4 groups stratified by LVEF (reduced LVEF [LVEF <40%], mildly reduced LVEF [LVEF: 40–49%], slightly reduced LVEF [LVEF: 50–59%], and normal LVEF [LVEF ≥60%]), and compared the backgrounds and outcomes between these 4 groups.

Results

Of 3,544 patients, the mean age was 73.6±10.7 years, 1,420 (40%) were female, 1,781 (50%) were paroxysmal AF, and 1,085 (30%) had pre-existing HF. The mean CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were 2.1±1.3 and 3.4±1.7, respectively. The mean LVEF at enrollment was 63±12% (reduced LVEF: 197 [6%], mildly reduced LVEF: 250 [7%], slightly reduced LVEF: 532 [15%] and normal LVEF: 2,565 [72%], respectively). Patients with lower LVEF demonstrated lower prevalence of female and paroxysmal AF, and had a higher CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (all P<0.01). A total of 605 patients were hospitalized for HF during the median follow-up period of 5.5 years, corresponding to an annual incidence of 3.4% per person-year. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that LVEF at enrollment could stratify the incidence of HF hospitalization during follow-up in patients with AF (Picture 1). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that lower LVEF strata were significantly associated with the increased risk of HF hospitalization even after adjustment by age, sex, type of AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score (Picture 1). An increased risk of HF hospitalization was observed even in patients with mildly reduced LVEF (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.56, 95% CI: 1.99–3.29) as well as in those with slightly reduced LVEF (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.45–2.22) compared with those with normal LVEF. These results were also the case in AF patients without pre-existing HF (Picture 2).

Conclusion

LVEF at enrollment could stratify the incidence of HF hospitalization in patients with AF, suggesting the importance of measuring LVEF in all patients with AF. Even mildly (LVEF: 40–49%) or slightly (LVEF: 50–59%) reduced LVEF was independently associated with the risk of incident HF in patients with AF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Distinct association of VEGF-C and VEGF-D with prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure: the PREHOSP-CHF study

Background

The lymphatic system has been suggested to play an important role in cardiovascular (CV) diseases including heart failure (HF). Vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C) and VEGF-D are key regulators of lymphoangiogenesis.

Purpose

To investigate the association of VEGF-C and VEGF-D with prognosis in patients with chronic HF (CHF).

Methods

The PREHOSP-CHF study is a multicenter prospective cohort study to determine the predictive value of angiogenesis-related biomarkers in CHF. A total of 1,024 patients (mean age, 75.5±12.6 years; male, 58.7%) admitted to acute decompensated HF were included in the analyses. The primary outcome was MACE defined as a composite of CV death or HF hospitalization. The secondary outcomes were all-cause death, CV death, and HF hospitalizations. Serum levels of VEGF-C and VEGF-D, as well as N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high sensitivity cardiac troponin-I (hs-cTnI), high sensitive C reactive protein (hs-CRP), VEGF, and soluble VEGF receptor-2 (sVEGFR-2) were measured at the time of discharge. Patients were followed-up over two years.

Results

Median [interquartile range] of VEGF-C and VEGF-D levels were 4821 [3633–6131] pg/ml and 404 [296–559] pg/ml, respectively. In multivariate stepwise regression analysis, independent determinants of VEGF-C levels were younger age, female gender, absence of prior HF hospitalization, chronic kidney disease, and anemia, lower ejection fraction, lower NT-proBNP levels, higher VEGF levels, and higher sVEGFR-2 levels, while those of VEGF-D levels were lower body mass index, presence of diabetes and atrial fibrillation, and higher NT-proBNP levels. During the follow-up, a total of 209 (20.4%) all-cause deaths, 112 (10.9%) CV deaths, and 309 (30.2%) HF hospitalizations occurred. After adjusting for established risk factors and CV biomarkers, VEGF-C levels were significantly and inversely associated with the incidence of MACE and non-CV death (Fig.1, model 4). On the other hand, VEGF-D levels were significantly and positively associated with the incidence of HF hospitalization (Fig. 1, model 4). When we divided the patients into 4 groups based on the median of VEGF-C and VEGF-D levels, patients with low VEGF-C and high VEGF-D showed significantly higher incidence of MACE, all-cause death, CV death, and HF hospitalization compared to those with high VEGF-C and low VEGF-D (Fig. 2).

Conclusions

Among patients with CHF, VEGF-C and VEGF-D had different characteristic and association with the incidence of adverse events. VEGF-C levels were inversely associated with the incidence of MACE and non-CV death, and VEGF-D levels were positively associated with the incidence of HF hospitalization. These results suggests different effects of VEGF-C and VEGF-D in CHF. Combination of VEGF-C and VEGF-D enables us to make good risk stratification in patients with CHF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization Figure 1Figure 2

Association of low total cholesterol level with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Hyperlipidemia is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, low cholesterol is also reported to be associated with poor outcome in patients with chronic disease, which is called “cholesterol paradox”, and the association of cholesterol level with the incidence of clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unclear.

Methods

In the Fushimi AF Registry, a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan, follow-up data and baseline total cholesterol levels were available in 3,054 patients. We excluded 767 patients who were taking statins, and 2,267 patients were included in the analyses. We defined low cholesterol as total cholesterol <150 mg/dl, and examined the incidence of all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism (SE), heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and major bleeding.

Results

Patients with low cholesterol (N=464 (20.4%)) were older, more often male, and had higher prevalence of low body weight (<50 kg), permanent/persistent AF, prior stroke/SE, HF, chronic kidney disease, and anemia (hemoglobin <11 g/dl). CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in patients with low cholesterol (low cholesterol vs others; 3.6±1.6 vs 3.2±1.7: P<0.001). Prescription of oral anti-coagulants was comparable between the groups (50.0% vs 54.5%: P=0.09). During the median follow-up of 1,805 days, the incidence of all-cause death, stroke/SE, HF hospitalization, and major bleeding was significantly higher in patients with low cholesterol (all-cause death, 10.9 vs 3.8 /100 person-years; stroke/SE, 3.4 vs 1.9 /100 person-years; HF hospitalization, 4.7 vs 2.5 /100 person-years; major bleeding, 2.7 vs 1.4 /100 person-years) (Figure 1). After adjustment for the components of CHA2DS2-VASc score, low body weight, permanent/persistent AF, chronic kidney disease, anemia, and prescription of oral anti-coagulants, low cholesterol was significantly associated with the incidence of all-cause death and stroke/SE, but not with that of HF hospitalization or major bleeding (Figure 2, model 3). Total cholesterol levels were still significantly and inversely associated with the incidence of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92–0.96 for 10 mg/dl increase) and stroke/SE (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.92–0.999 for 10 mg/dl increase), when analyzed as continuous variables. Subgroup analysis revealed that the risk of low cholesterol for all-cause death was more pronounced in female (interaction P, 0.049), patient without prior stroke/SE (interaction P, 0.01), those without HF (interaction P, 0.01), and those without vascular disease (interaction P, 0.001). The risk for stroke/SE was more pronounced in patients without vascular disease (interaction P, 0.01).

Conclusion

Low total cholesterol level was significantly associated with the incidence of all-cause and stroke/SE in AF patients not taking statins, suggesting the existence of cholesterol paradox in AF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Daiichi-Sankyo, Novartis Pharma, MSD, Sanofi-Avent

The relationship between diastolic blood pressure and the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation whose systolic blood pressure was treated to less than 130 mmHg

Background

Hypertension is one of the major risk factors of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Low diastolic blood pressure (DBP) has been reported to be associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events, but current guidelines recommend an intensive blood pressure target of less than 130/80 mmHg for AF patients taking oral anticoagulants without mentioning the lower limits of DBP.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in a city of Japan. Follow-up data were available in 4,472 patients, and hypertensive patients who received prescription of any antihypertensive agents and whose systolic blood pressure was treated to less than 130 mmHg were available were examined (n=1,319). We divided the patients into four groups according to their DBP at baseline; G1 (DBP<60 mmHg, n=349), G2 (60≤DBP<70, n=434), G3 (70≤DBP<80, n=386) and G4 (80≤DBP, n=150), and compared the clinical background and outcomes among groups.

Results

The proportion of female was grater in G1 group, and the patients in G1 group were older. During the median follow-up of 2,458 days, in Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence rates of cardiovascular events (composite of cardiac death, ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, non-fatal myocardial infarction and heart failure hospitalization during follow up) were the highest in G1 group and the lowest in G3 group (G1: 7.2% per person-year vs. G2: 4.9% vs. G3: 2.2% vs. G4: 4.4%; p<0.01). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis revealed that DBP was an independent determinant of cardiovascular events (G1 vs. G3; hazard ratio (HR): 1.96, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.39–2.76, G2 vs. G3; HR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.28–2.50, G4 vs. G3; HR: 1.56, 95% CI: 0.99–2.45) (Figure 1). When we examined the association of DBP according to 10 mmHg increment, patients with excessively low DBP (<50 mmHg) had significantly higher incidence of cardiovascular events than patients with DBP of 70–79 mmHg (HR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.81–4.33), and DBP exhibited J curve association with higher incidence of cardiovascular events (Figure 2).

Conclusion

In Japanese AF patients whose systolic blood pressure was treated to less than 130 mmHg, patients with excessively low DBP had significantly higher incidence of cardiovascular events, and DBP exhibited J curve association with higher incidence of cardiovascular events.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Previous pacemaker therapy was not associated with the risk of clinical events in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) occasionally require pacemaker implantation. Meanwhile, patients with implanted pacemaker are occasionally found to have subclinical AF and develop clinical AF. However, little is known about the clinical outcomes of AF patients with implanted pacemaker.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes in AF patients undergoing previous pacemaker therapy.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in a city of Japan. Follow-up data including prescription status were available for 4,447 patients. After exclusion of patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator and cardiac resynchronization therapy, we investigated 293 AF patients with pacemaker implantation at baseline. We performed propensity score-matching analysis to assess the impact of pacemaker therapy in AF patients.

Results

Of a total cohort, patients with pacemaker were more often female (51.2% vs. 39.7%; p<0.01) and older (78.0 vs. 73.3 years of age; p<0.01). Patients with pacemaker were more likely to have pre-existing heart failure (33.1% vs. 26.6%; p<0.01), valvular heart disease (22.9% vs. 16.8%; p<0.01), chronic kidney disease (48.8% vs. 34.7%; p<0.01), and history of performing direct current cardioversion (7.2% vs. 3.1%; p<0.01), compared with patients without pacemaker. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in patients with pacemaker (3.80 vs. 3.34; p<0.01). Patients with pacemaker were more often prescribed oral anticoagulants (62.1% vs. 55.2%; p=0.02), verapamil (13.3% vs. 9.4%; p=0.03), and loop diuretics (30.7% vs. 21.8%; p<0.01). Using propensity score-matching, 291 patients with pacemaker and 291 without pacemaker were matched and baseline characteristics were comparable. The median follow-up period was 1,819 days. All-cause death occurred in 91 patients with pacemaker (6.0 /100 person-years) and 79 patients without pacemaker (5.9 /100 person-years), with a hazard ratio (HR) for patients with pacemaker of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.37; p=0.93). Furthermore, HR of cardiac death for patients with pacemaker was 1.00 (95% CI, 0.23 to 4.32; p=0.99), that of stroke or systemic embolism was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.44 to 1.07; p=0.10) and that of hospitalization for heart failure was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.65 to 1.37; p=0.76).

Conclusion

We identified that patients undergoing previous pacemaker therapy were not associated with the incidence of various adverse clinical events in Japanese AF patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Novartis Pharma, MSD, Sanofi-Aventis, Takeda Pharmaceutical, and the Practical Research Project for Life-Style related Diseases including Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus from Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development.

Association of the degree of thrombocytopenia with cause of death in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Thrombocytopenia is sometimes found in routine blood tests and is associated with an increased risk of mortality in general population. We have previously reported that atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with thrombocytopenia have a higher mortality than those without thrombocytopenia. However, association of the degree of thrombocytopenia with cause of death in AF patients is unknown.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate the association of baseline platelet count with cause of death including cardiac death, intracranial death, malignancy, infection, extracranial bleeding death, renal failure death, respiratory failure death and undetermined death.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry was designed to enroll all of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto. Fushimi-ku is densely populated with a total population of 283,000 and is assumed to represent a typical urban community in Japan. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data with baseline platelet counts less than 150,000/μL were available in 853 patients by the end of September 2020. We divided them into 3 groups according to baseline platelet level: Mild thrombocytopenia (100,000–149,999/μL, n=703), Moderate thrombocytopenia (50,000–99,999/μL, n=120), and Severe thrombocytopenia (<50,000/μL, n=30).

Results

In the entire cohort, the mean age was 76 years, 34% were women, the mean body weight and body mass index was 59.3 kg and 22.9 kg/m2, and the median platelet count were 121,000/μL (interquartile range 109,000 to 141,000/μL). Compared to Mild thrombocytopenia, patients with Moderate or Severe thrombocytopenia were more likely to have chronic kidney disease (42.2% vs 54.2% vs 73.3%, p=0.0003), have higher HAS-BLED score (1.90 vs 2.14 vs 2.00, p=0.047) and lower hemoglobin (12.8g/dL vs 11.7g/dL vs 11.2g/dL, p<0.0001) and were less often prescribed anti platelet drugs. Age, sex, body weight, systolic blood pressure, previous stroke, previous major bleeding, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-VASc score were comparable between three groups. During the median follow-up period, the incidence rate (per 100 person-years) of all-cause death was 6.82 vs 15.27 vs 9.64. (p<0.001) On univariate analysis, the incidence of all-cause death was higher in Moderate group than Mild group. (HR: 2.15; 95% CI 1.61–2.87, p<0.0001), but there was no significant difference between Mild and Severe groups. (HR: 1.44; 95% CI 0.78–2.64, p=0.243). The incidence of cardiac death was comparable between three groups. (Mild vs Moderate: HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.15–2.75, p=0.56, Mild vs Severe: HR 1.11; 95% CI 0.15–8.23, p=0.92) Regarding other causes of death such as intracranial bleeding, extracranial bleeding, malignancy, infection, renal failure, respiratory failure and undetermined cause, there was no significant difference.

Conclusion

Mortality was higher according to the degree of thrombocytopenia in AF patients, but the cause of death was not different among three groups.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Predictors and risk model for heart failure hospitalization in atrial fibrillation patients without pre-existing heart failure: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HF), as well as that of thromboembolism. The strategy for prediction of thromboembolism has been well-established; however, little focus has been placed on the risk stratification for and prevention of HF hospitalization in AF patients.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate the predictors and risk model of HF hospitalization in non-valvular AF patients without pre-existing HF.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,472 patients by the end of October 2020. From the registry, we excluded patients without a pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following; prior hospitalization for HF, New York Heart Association class ≥2, or left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] <40%), and those with valvular AF (mitral stenosis or prosthetic heart valve). Among 3,188 non-valvular AF patients without pre-existing HF, we explored the risk factors for the HF hospitalization during follow-up period. The risk model for predicting HF hospitalization was determined by the cumulative numbers of risk factors which were significant on multivariate analysis.

Results

The mean age was 72.4±10.8 years, 1197 were female and 1787 were paroxysmal AF. The mean CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were 1.7±1.2 and 2.9±1.6, respectively. During the median follow-up period of 5.1 years, HF hospitalization occurred in 285 (8.9%), corresponding to an annual incidence of 1.8 events per 100 person-years. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (≥75 years), valvular heart disease, coronary artery disease, reduced LVEF (<60%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and anemia were independently associated with the higher incidence of HF hospitalization (all P<0.001) (Picture 1). A risk model based on these 6 variables could stratify the incidence of HF hospitalization during follow-up period (log-rank; P<0.001) (Picture 2). Patients with ≥3 risk factors had an 11-fold higher incidence of HF hospitalization compared with those not having any of these risk factors (hazard ratio: 11.3, 95% confidence interval: 7.0–18.4; P<0.001).

Conclusions

Advanced age, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, reduced LVEF, COPD and anemia were independently associated with the risk of HF hospitalization in AF patients without pre-existing HF. There was good prediction for endpoint of HF hospitalization using these 6 variables, providing the opportunities for the implementation of strategies to reduce the incidence of HF among AF patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Aspirin vs. P2Y12 inhibitors with anticoagulation therapy for atrial fibrillation: insights from the AFIRE trial

Background

Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) can be treated with multiple antithrombotic therapies including antiplatelets and oral anticoagulants; however, this has the potential to increase bleeding risk.

Purpose

This sub-analysis aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of P2Y12 inhibitors and aspirin in patients also receiving oral anticoagulant therapy.

Methods

We evaluated patients from the Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Events with Rivaroxaban in Patients with Stable Coronary Artery Disease (AFIRE) trial who received combination therapy (rivaroxaban plus a single antiplatelet agent). The choice of antiplatelets was left to the physician's discretion. The primary efficacy endpoint was a composite of stroke, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring revascularization, and death from any cause. The primary safety endpoint was major bleeding according to the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria.

Results

A total of 1,075 patients were included (P2Y12 inhibitor group, n=297; aspirin group, n=778). Approximately 60% of patients were administered proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), and there was no significant difference in PPI use in the P2Y12 inhibitor and aspirin groups. Regarding the primary efficacy endpoint, there was no significant difference between the P2Y12 inhibitor and aspirin groups (hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.88–1.94; p=0.178). Likewise, the primary safety endpoint was not different between the groups (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.43–1.47; p=0.456). In the detailed subgroup analysis, there were no differences in the efficacy and safety endpoints.

Conclusions

There were no significant differences between P2Y12 inhibitors and aspirin in cardiovascular events in patients with AF and stable CAD taking rivaroxaban in the chronic phase.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The Japan Cardiovascular Research Foundation based on a contract with Bayer Yakuhin, Ltd. Summary of this study

Impact of atrial fibrillation on soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and cardiovascular events in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease: the EXCEED-J study

Background

Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), a vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) antagonist, has been suggested as a marker of endothelial dysfunction. Circulating sFlt-1 levels are associated with adverse outcomes in patients with preeclampsia, chronic kidney disease, and heart failure. Atrial fibrillation (AF) and coronary artery disease (CAD) are both associated with endothelial dysfunction. However, whether sFlt-1 can predict cardiovascular (CV) events and whether AF modifies the relationship between sFlt-1 and CV events in patients with suspected or known CAD are unknown.

Methods

We performed a nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study to determine the prognostic value of sFlt-1 and other biomarkers in patients with suspected or known CAD undergoing elective angiography. Heparin-free fasting serum was collected from the peripheral vein to determine levels of sFlt-1, VEGF, placental growth factor, cystatin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-I (hs-cTnI), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). The primary outcome was 3-point major adverse CV events (3P-MACE) defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke. The secondary outcomes were all-cause death, CV death, and 5P-MACE defined as a composite of 3P-MACE, heart failure hospitalization, and coronary/peripheral artery revascularization.

Results

3311 patients were consecutively enrolled between Nov 2013 and May 2017. After excluding 56 ineligible patients, 3255 patients (324 AF and 2931 non-AF) were followed up over 3 years (follow-up rate, 99%). During the follow-up, 156 patients developed 3P-MACE, 215 died from any cause, 82 died from cardiovascular disease, and 1361 developed 5P-MACE. The sFlt-1 level was significantly higher in AF compared to non-AF patients (p<0.001). Stepwise regression analysis revealed that the sFlt-1 level was independently associated with AF. After adjusting for potential clinical confounders, serum levels of sFlt-1, NT-proBNP, hs-cTnI and cystatin C, but not other biomarkers, were significantly associated with 3P-MACE in the entire cohort. These associations were still significant in non-AF patients, whereas only the sFlt-1 level was significantly associated with 3P-MACE in AF patients. Serum levels of sFlt-1, but not other biomarkers, were also significantly associated with CV death in AF patients. Among the biomarkers, only the hs-CRP level was significantly associated with all-cause death, and no biomarker was significantly associated with 5P-MACE in AF patients. Furthermore, sFlt-1 provided an incremental prognostic information for 3P-MACE to the model with potential clinical confounders in AF, but not in non-AF patients.

Conclusions

Serum levels of sFlt-1 were significantly associated with 3P-MACE in patients with suspected or known CAD. This association was pronounced in AF patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The EXCEED-J study is supported by Health Labour Sciences Research Grant (2013-2014), AMED (2015-2017, Grant Number JP17ek0210008) and Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization (2018-2020).

Influence of renal dysfunction on clinical outcomes in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation: a subanalysis of the phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled ELDERCARE-AF trial

Background

Renal dysfunction is common in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and is thought to be associated with increased risk of thromboembolic and bleeding events. Once-daily low-dose (15 mg) edoxaban was superior to placebo in preventing stroke or systemic embolic events (S/SEE) without significantly increasing major bleeding events in very elderly (≥80 years) non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients in whom standard oral anticoagulant therapy at approved doses was inappropriate (ELDERCARE-AF trial). Little is known about how renal dysfunction affects the effects of low-dose edoxaban in these patients.

Purpose

We used prespecified subgroup analysis to investigate the relation between renal function (assessed by creatinine clearance, CrCl) and the efficacy and safety of edoxaban in elderly NVAF patients.

Methods

ELDERCARE-AF patients were divided into 3 subgroups according to baseline CrCl: normal renal function/mild dysfunction (CrCl >50 mL/min), moderate renal dysfunction (CrCl ≥30 to ≤50 [“30–50”] mL/min) and severe renal dysfunction (CrCl ≥15 to <30 [“15–30”] mL/min). Primary efficacy and safety endpoints were annualized incidence of S/SEE and ISTH-defined major bleeding, respectively.

Results

Of 984 patients randomized to edoxaban 15 mg or placebo (each group N=492), 681 completed the trial. The 303 discontinuations were due to withdrawal of consent (n=158), death (n=135), or other causes (n=10). Discontinuation rate was the same in the edoxaban and placebo groups. S/SEE incidence in patients with CrCl >50, 30–50 and 15–30 mL/min was 2.0%, 1.3% and 3.5%, respectively, in edoxaban, and 4.4%, 4.6% and 9.7%, respectively, in placebo. In those with CrCl 30–50 and 15–30 mL/min, it was significantly lower in edoxaban than in placebo (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.30 [95% CI, 0.10–0.91], p=0.03; and 0.33 [95% CI, 0.16–0.71], p<0.01, respectively). Incidence of major bleeding in patients with CrCl >50, 30–50 and 15–30 mL/min was 1.0%, 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, in edoxaban, and 0.9%, 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively, in placebo. Incidence of major bleeding in those with CrCl 15–30 mL/min was higher in edoxaban but not significantly (adjusted HR, 2.53 [95% CI, 0.96–6.72], p=0.062). Incidence of gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with CrCl 15–30 mL/min was 4.3% in edoxaban and 1.6% in placebo (adjusted HR, 2.61 [95% CI, 0.79–8.68], p=0.12). Incidence of all-cause death in patients with CrCl >50, 30–50 and 15–30 mL/min was 5.8%, 6.8% and 15.2%, respectively, in edoxaban, and 7.0%, 6.3% and 15.5%, respectively, in placebo (no significant intergroup differences).

Conclusions

Incidence of S/SEE, major bleeding and all-cause death increased with declining renal function in elderly NVAF patients. Edoxaban 15 mg remained superior to placebo in preventing S/SEE, even in those with moderate to severe renal dysfunction. Incidence of major bleeding in patients with severe renal dysfunction was higher (non-significantly) with edoxaban than with placebo.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Daiichi-Sankyo Co., Ltd.

Derivation and validation of a novel score to detect heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is an important comorbidity of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it is sometimes difficult to detect HFpEF among AF patients with preserved EF, since AF and HF share similar symptoms.

Purpose

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with having HFpEF in AF patients with preserved EF, and derive a new score for HFpEF in AF patients.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Follow-up data were available for 4,466 patients, and 3,083 patients had preserved EF (≥50%). Of the 3,083 patients, 444 had prior HF hospitalization at baseline and we defined these patients as HFpEF. We examined the factors associated with having HFpEF, and derived a new score for detecting HFpEF in AF patients. Thereafter, we validated this score in patients without prior HF hospitalization.

Result

The mean age of the patients with EF ≥50% was 73.6 years, and 41.3% were female. Compared with the patients without prior HF hospitalization, HFpEF patients were older, more often female, less in body weight, had more heart disease (valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, old myocardial infarction, and coronary artery disease), chronic kidney diseases (CKD), anemia (Hb <11 g/dL), sustained AF (persistent or permanent), left atrial enlargement (>45 mm), and dilation of cardio-thoracic ratio (CTR) (>54%) at baseline. In multivariate analysis, heart diseases, CKD, sustained AF, dilatation of CTR, left atrial enlargement, and anemia were significantly associated with HFpEF (Table 1). We derived a new score to diagnose HFpEF in AF patients (2 points for heart diseases, 1 point for CKD, sustained AF, dilatation of CTR, left atrial enlargement, and anemia; range 0 to 7 points). In a receiver-operating characteristic curve, optimal cut-off point for detecting HFpEF was 3 (Figure 1). We validated this score in patients without prior hospitalization for HF (n=2,639). Of these, 298 patients had HF symptoms of NYHA 2–4 (Symptomatic-HF), and 2,341 patients had neither prior HF hospitalization nor HF symptoms (No-HF). Notably, 207 patients (69.5%) in symptomatic-HF group and 748 patients (32.0%) in No-HF group were classified into HFpEF based on this new score. Furthermore, patients diagnosed as HFpEF by this score had higher incidence of new hospitalization for HF during the follow-up in both symptomatic-HF group and No-HF group. (Figure 2).

Conclusion

We derived a new score to diagnose HFpEF in AF patients based on the presence of prior HF hospitalization (2 points for heart diseases, 1 point for CKD, sustained AF, dilatation of CTR, left atrial enlargement, and anemia). In patients without prior HF hospitalization, sizable number of patients had high HFpEF score (≥3), and those patients showed higher incidence of new HF hospitalization.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Clinical outcomes of Japanese atrial fibrillation patients with combined valvular heart disease: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

We previously reported that valvular heart disease (VHD) was not at the significant risk of stroke/systemic embolism (SE), but was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HF) in Japanese atrial fibrillation patients. However, the impact of combined VHD on clinical outcomes has been little known.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of combined VHD and its clinical characteristics and impact on outcomes such as stroke/SE, all-cause death, cardiac death and hospitalization for HF.

Method

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in one of the wards of our city which is a typical urban district of Japan. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,466 patients by the end of November 2019. In the entire cohort, echocardiography data were available for 3,574 patients. 68 AF patients with prosthetic heart valves were excluded and we compared clinical characteristics and outcomes between 488 single VHD (103 Aortic valve disease (AVD), 315 mitral valve disease (MVD), 70 tricuspid valve disease (TVD)) and 158 combined VHD (46 AVD and MVD, 11 AVD and TVD, 66 MVD and TVD, 35 AVD and MVD and TVD).

Result

Compared with single VHD, patients with combined VHD were older (combined vs. single VHD: 78.5 vs. 76.0 years, respectively; p<0.01), more likely to have persistent/permanent type AF (73.4% vs. 63.9%, p=0.02) and prescription of warfarin (63.1% vs. 53.8%, p=0.04). Combined VHD was less likely to have diabetes mellitus (13.9% vs. 23.6%, p=0.01) and dyslipidemia (26.6% vs. 40.4%, p<0.01). Sex, body weight, hypertension, pre-existing HF were comparable between the two groups.

During the median follow-up of 1,474 days, the incidence rate of stroke/SE was not significantly different between the two groups (1.58 vs. 1.89 per 100 person-years, respectively, log rank p=0.10). The incidence rate of all-cause death (7.35 vs. 5.33, p=0.65), cardiac death (1.20 vs. 0.99, p=0.91) and hospitalization for HF (5.55 vs. 4.43, p=0.53) were also not significantly different. We previously reported AVD had significant impacts on cardiac adverse outcomes in AF patients, and we further analyzed event rates between combined VHD including AVD (AVD and MVD/TVD) and without AVD (MVD and TVD). Combined VHD with AVD group had higher incidence rate of all-cause death (10.7 vs. 5.79, p=0.03) than that without AVD group. However, the incidence rate of stroke/SE (1.98 vs. 1.56, p=0.59), cardiac death (0.98 vs. 1.14, p=0.68), hospitalization for HF (8.03 vs. 5.38, p=0.17) were not significantly different between the two groups.

Conclusion

As compared with single VHD, the risk of stroke/SE, all-cause death, cardiac death and hospitalization for HF in combined VHD was not significantly different. Among patients with combined VHD, those having AVD had higher incidence rate of all-cause death than those without AVD.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Impact of glucose tolerance status on the relationship between vascular endothelial growth factor D and mortality in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Vascular endothelial growth factor D (VEGF-D) is a secreted glycoprotein that can act as lymphangiogenic and angiogenic growth factors through binding to its specific receptors, VEGFR-3 and VEGFR-2. VEGF-D signaling via VEGFR-3 plays an important role in lipoprotein metabolisms which may contribute to coronary artery disease (CAD). We recently reported that serum levels of VEGF-D are independently associated with mortality in patients with suspected or known CAD. However, the impact of glucose tolerance status on the relationship between VEGF-D and mortality in patients with suspected CAD is unclear.

Methods

Serum VEGF-D levels were measured in 1,717 patients with suspected CAD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict CV events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. After excluding 67 patients with no HbA1c data, 1,650 patients were divided into 3 groups according to the glucose tolerance status: diabetes (DM, n=693), prediabetes (preDM, n=541) defined as an HbA1c of 5.7 to 6.4%, and normal glucose tolerance (NGT, n=416) defined as an HbA1c of 5.6% or less. The outcomes were total death, CV death, and major adverse CV events (MACE) defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 80 DM, 45 preDM, and 30 NGT patients died from any cause, 24 DM, 13 preDM, and 12 NGT died from CV disease, and 54 DM, 30 preDM, and 19 NGT developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-D levels were significantly associated with total death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.47), but not with CV death (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.93–1.52) or MACE (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.997–1.48) in DM; VEGF-D levels were not significantly associated with total death (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.70–1.34), CV death (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 0.92–2.11), or MACE (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.74–1.50) in preDM; VEGF-D levels were not significantly associated with total death (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.98–1.84), CV death (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.78–2.13), or MACE (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.66–1.46) in NGT. Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-D levels further improved the prediction of total death (P=0.040 for continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], P=0.007 for integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]), but not that of CV death or MACE in DM, while it did not significantly improved the prediction of total death, CV death, or MACE either in preDM or in NGT.

Conclusions

The VEGF-D level was independently associated with total death in DM, but not in preDM or in NGT. The relationship between VEGF-D and total mortality may depend on the presence of DM in patients with suspected CAD.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

The relationship between diastolic blood pressure and the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Hypertension is one of the major risk factors of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, relationship between diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and cardiovascular events in AF patients remains unclear.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Japan. Follow-up data were available in 4,466 patients, and 4,429 patients with available data of DBP were examined. We divided the patients into three groups; G1 (DBP<70 mmHg, n=1,946), G2 (70≤DBP<80, n=1,321) and G3 (80≤DBP, n=1,162), and compared the clinical background and outcomes between groups.

Results

The proportion of female was grater in G1 group, and the patients in G1 group were older and had higher prevalence of heart failure (HF), diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD). Prescription of beta blockers was higher in G1 group, but that of renin-angiotensin system-inhibitors and calcium channel blocker was comparable. During the median follow-up of 1,589 days, in Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence rates of cardiovascular events (composite of cardiac death, ischemic stroke and systemic embolism, major bleeding and HF hospitalization during follow up) were higher in G1 group and G3 group than G2 group (Figure 1). When we divided the patients based on the systolic blood pressure (SBP) at baseline (≥130 mmHg or <130 mmHg), the incidence of rates of cardiovascular events were comparable among groups. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis including female gender, age (≥75 years), higher SBP (≥130 mmHg), DM, pre-existing HF, CKD, low left ventricular ejection fraction (<40%) and DBP (G1, G2, G3) revealed that DBP was an independent determinant of cardiovascular events (G1 group vs. G2 group; hazard ratio (HR): 1.40, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.19–1.64, G3 group vs. G2 group; HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.01–1.49). When we examined the impact of DBP according to 10 mmHg increment, patients with very low DBP (<60 mmHg) (HR: 1.50,95% CI:1.24–1.80) and very high DBP (≥90 mmHg) (HR: 1.51,95% CI:1.15–1.98) had higher incidence of cardiovascular events than patients with DBP of 70–79 mmHg (Figure 2). However, when we examined the impact of SBP according to 20 mmHg increment, SBP at baseline was not associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events (Figure 3).

Conclusion

In Japanese patients with AF, DBP exhibited J curve association with higher incidence of cardiovascular events.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Clinical implications of assessment of apixaban levels in elderly atrial fibrillation patients: J-ELD AF Registry sub-cohort analysis

Background

Randomized clinical trials demonstrated the efficacy and safety of apixaban in preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, data on distribution of apixaban levels and their relationships with clinical outcomes are limited.

Purpose

To evaluate the distribution of blood apixaban concentration and its relationship with clinical outcomes.

Method

The J-ELD AF Registry is a large-scale, multicenter prospective observational study of Japanese non-valvular AF patients aged ≥75 years taking on-label dose (standard dose of 5 mg bid or reduced dose of 2.5 mg bid) of apixaban. Among the entire cohort (3,015 patients from 110 institutions), plasma apixaban levels at trough was measured by anti-Xa assay (Api-AXA) in 943 patients. The 943 patients were divided into 2 groups by the apixaban dose (standard dose [n=431] and reduced dose [n=512]) and each group was further divided into 2 groups with low and high Api-AXA levels compared with the median value.

Results

In patients with standard dose, the incidence rates (/100 person-years) of stroke or systemic embolism (1.48 and 1.99), bleeding requiring hospitalization (0.98 and 1.49), and total deaths (0.49 and 0.99) were comparable between low and high Api-AXA groups, respectively. In patients with reduced dose, although the incidence rates (/100 person-years) of stroke or systemic embolism (0.84 and 1.68) were comparable, bleeding requiring hospitalization (0.42 and 4.64), and total deaths (2.52 and 6.65) were significantly higher in high Api-AXA group than in low Api-AXA group. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that in patients with reduced dose, high Api-AXA level was independently associated with bleeding requiring hospitalization (HR 12.12, 95% CI: 1.56–94.22, P=0.017) and insignificantly with total deaths (HR 2.15, 95% CI: 0.83–5.55, P=0.116).

Conclusions

High trough apixaban level in patients with standard dose was not associated with adverse events, while that in patients with reduced dose was associated with bleeding requiring hospitalization and total deaths. Measurement of apixaban levels may be informative in elderly patients indicated for reduced dose possibly with the intent of risk stratification and decision making.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Other. Main funding source(s): Bristol-Myers Squibb K.K.

Impact of chronic kidney disease on mid-term prognosis of stable angina patients with high-dose or low-dose pitavastatin treatment: REAL-CAD sub-study

Background

We previously demonstrated that high-dose (4 mg/day) compared with low-dose (1 mg/day) pitavastatin therapy significantly reduced cardiovascular events in Japanese patients with stable coronary artery disease in the Randomized Evaluation of Aggressive or Moderate Lipid Lowering Therapy with Pitavastatin in Coronary Artery Disease (REAL-CAD) study. However, little is known about whether the advantage of high-dose statins over low-dose statins is consistent among non-, mild, and moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients.

Purpose

The aim of this study was to clarify the effect of high-dose statins on cardiovascular events in Japanese patients with or without CKD.

Methods

The REAL-CAD study is a prospective, multicenter, randomized, open-label, blinded endpoint, physician-initiated superiority trial. In this sub-analysis of REAL-CAD study, patients were categorized into three groups according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Patients on hemodialysis were excluded in this study. The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), non-fatal ischemic stroke, or unstable angina requiring emergency hospitalization. A secondary composite endpoint was defined as a composite of the primary endpoint event or clinically-indicated coronary revascularization excluding target-lesion revascularization.

Results

The total population of the REAL-CAD study was 12,413 patients. After exclusion of patients lacking eGFR data, the numbers of patients categorized into non-CKD (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73m2), mild CKD (eGFR; 45–60), and moderate to severe CKD (eGFR <45) were 7,778 (64%), 3,176 (26%), and 1,164 (10%), respectively. The median follow-up period was 3.9 years. The baseline characteristics and medications were well balanced between the two groups in each CKD group. While high-dose compared to low-dose pitavastatin significantly reduced the primary endpoint in non-CKD patients, the effect was not observed in mild CKD and moderate to severe CKD patients (Figure 1). High-dose compared with low-dose pitavastatin did not significantly reduce the secondary composite endpoint in both mild and moderate to severe CKD patients as well. High-dose pitavastatin significantly reduced the risks of MI and any coronary revascularization in non-CKD patients, however, the effects were diminished in mild CKD and moderate to severe CKD patients. There was no significant difference between high-dose and low-dose pitavastatin treatment in the risk of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, ischemic stroke, or unstable angina requiring emergency hospitalization in patients with or without CKD.

Conclusion

Although high-dose pitavastatin therapy significantly reduced cardiovascular events in non-CKD patients with stable angina compared to low-dose pitavastatin, such beneficial effects had diminished in Japanese patients with mild or moderate to severe CKD patients.

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier Curves for Endpoints

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Clinical Research of Lifestyle-Related Disease of the Public Health Research Foundation

Adverse outcomes after worsening renal function in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly coexist with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) are recommended for stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF), and worsening renal function (WRF) as well as CKD is an important issue in using NOAC. However, little is known about the clinical outcomes of patients after WRF.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate outcomes after WRF in AF patients.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in our city. Follow-up data including prescription status were available for 4,441 patients. Of them, 1,890 patients who have baseline and at least 1 follow-up creatinine clearance (CrCl) measurements, estimated by the Cockcroft-Gault formula, were analyzed in the present study. WRF was defined as a decrease of ≥20% from baseline CrCl measurement at any time point during follow-up. We evaluated demographics and outcomes after WRF in AF patients.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 2,194 days, mean CrCl decrease of 2.2 ml/min/year was observed and WRF occurred in 981 patients (51.9%). Patients with WRF were significantly more often female (with vs. without WRF; 40.3% vs. 35.4%; p=0.03), older (73.4 vs. 71.1 years of age; p<0.01), more often paroxysmal type (49.9% vs. 47.1%; p<0.01), and more likely to have prior stroke (17.9% vs. 12.7%; p<0.01), heart failure (30.8% vs. 24.8%; p<0.01), diabetes (31.7% vs. 27.1%; p=0.03), and coronary artery disease (19.9% vs. 12.1%; p<0.01) than those without WRF. Co-existing of CKD and mean CrCl at baseline were comparable (37.4% vs. 36.9%; p=0.82, 65.3 vs. 63.5 ml/min; p=0.66, respectively). Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly higher in WRF patients (3.55 vs. 3.03; p<0.01). On landmark analysis, all-cause mortality occurred in 135 patients (8.6 /100 person-years) after WRF and 82 patients (1.7 /100 person-years) without WRF, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 6.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.33–9.50; p<0.01), adjusted by sex, age, body weight, serum creatinine, type of AF, oral anticoagulant prescription and comorbidities. Stroke or systemic embolism occurred in 45 patients after WRF (3.0 /100 person-years) and 78 (1.7 /100 person-years) patients without WRF (adjusted HR 1.60 [95% CI, 1.04–2.49; p=0.03]) (Figure).

Conclusions

AF patients after WRF had higher incidence of various adverse events.

Incidence of Adverse Outcomes

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Other. Main funding source(s): The Practical Research Project for Life-Style related Diseases including Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus from Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development. Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Astellas Pharma, AstraZeneca, Daiichi-Sankyo, Novartis Pharma, MSD, Sanofi-Aventis, and Takeda Pharmaceutical.

Clinical impact of regression from sustained to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown.

Purpose

We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes.

Methods

Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p<0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p<0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p<0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p<0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01).

Conclusion

Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Impact of creatinine clearance on clinical outcomes in elderly atrial fibrillation patients receiving apixaban: J-ELD AF Registry sub-analysis

Background

Randomized clinical trials demonstrated the efficacy and safety of apixaban in preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, data on patients with low creatinine clearance (CCr), especially CCr 15–29 mL/min, are limited.

Methods

The J-ELD AF Registry is a large-scale, multicenter prospective observational study of Japanese non-valvular AF patients aged ≥75 years taking on-label dose (standard dose of 5 mg bid or reduced dose of 2.5 mg bid) of apixaban. The enrollment period was from September 2015 to August 2016, and the observation period for each patient was 1 year. The entire cohort (3,015 patients from 110 institutions) was divided into three CCr subgroups: CCr ≥50 mL/min (n=1,165, 38.6%), CCr 30–49 mL/min (n=1,395, 46.3%), and CCr 15–29 mL/min (n=455, 15.1%).

Results

Most patients (74.3%) in the CCr ≥50 group received the standard apixaban dose, and most (97.4%) in the CCr 15–29 group received the reduced apixaban dose. The average age was 79.2 years for the CCr ≥50 group, 82.5 years for the CCr 30–49 group, and 85.6 years for the CCr 15–29 group. The lower CCr value group included more female patients, had lower body weight, and less cases of paroxysmal AF, as well as more cases of heart failure, peripheral artery disease, and myocardial infarction as comorbidities. The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores were 4.2±1.2 and 2.4±0.8 for the CCr ≥50 group, 4.5±1.2 and 2.4±0.8 for the CCr 30–49 group, and 4.9±1.2 and 2.4±0.7 for the CCr 15–29 group, respectively. Kaplan Meier curves for cumulative incidence of events are shown in Figure. The event incidence rates (/100 person-years) were 1.76, 1.39, and 1.67 for stroke or systemic embolism (log rank p=0.762), 1.39, 1.93, and 3.13 for bleeding requiring hospitalization (log rank p=0.159), 1.75, 2.76, and 7.87 for total deaths (log rank p<0.001), and 0.46, 0.84, and 2.62 for cardiovascular deaths (log rank p<0.001), in the CCr ≥50 group, CCr 30–49 group, and CCr 15–29 group, respectively. After adjusting for confounders by Cox regression analysis, CCr 15–29 was an independent risk for total death [hazard ratio (HR) 3.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.68–6.17, with reference to the CCr ≥50 group] and cardiovascular death [HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.06–9.56], but not for stroke or systemic embolism [HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.40–2.24], or bleeding requiring hospitalization [HR 2.00, 95% CI 0.93–4.28].

Conclusions

The incidence of events in each CCr value group was comparable for stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding requiring hospitalization, and significantly higher for total deaths and cardiovascular deaths only in the CCr 15–29 group, in Japanese non-valvular AF patients aged ≥75 years.

Cumulative incidence rates of events

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Bristol-Myers Squibb

Plasma natriuretic peptide level is an independent determinant of major clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation patients without heart failure: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of death, stroke/systemic embolism and heart failure (HF). Plasma natriuretic peptide (NP) level is an important prognostic marker in HF patients. However, little is known regarding the prognostic significance of plasma NP level in AF patients without HF.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between plasma NP level and clinical outcomes such as all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism and HF hospitalization during follow-up period in AF patients without HF.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in our city. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,466 patients by the end of November 2019. From the registry, we excluded 1,220 patients without a pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following; prior hospitalization for HF, New York Heart Association class ≥2, or left ventricular ejection fraction <40%). Among 3,246 AF patients without HF, we investigated 1,189 patients with the data of plasma BNP (n=401) or N-terminal pro-BNP (n=788) level at the enrollment. We divided the patients according to the quartile of each plasma BNP or NT-pro BNP level and compared the backgrounds and outcomes between these 4 groups stratified by plasma NP level.

Results

Of 1,189 patients, the mean age was 72.1±10.2 years, 454 (38%) were female and 684 (58%) were paroxysmal AF. The mean CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc score were 1.6±1.1 and 2.9±1.5, respectively. Oral anticoagulants were prescribed in 671 (56%) at baseline. The median (interquartile range) BNP and N-terminal pro-BNP level were 84 (38, 176) and 500 (155, 984) pg/ml, respectively. Patients with high plasma NP level were older, and demonstrated lower prevalence of paroxysmal AF, higher CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores and higher prevalence of chronic kidney disease and oral anticoagulants prescription (all P<0.01). A total of 165 all-cause death, 114 stroke/systemic embolism and 103 HF hospitalization occurred during the median follow-up period of 5.0 years. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that higher plasma NP level was significantly associated with the incidences of all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism and HF hospitalization in AF patients without HF (Figure 1A). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that plasma NP level could stratify the risk of clinical outcomes even after adjustment by type of AF, CHA2DS2-VASc score, chronic kidney disease and oral anticoagulant prescription (Figure 1B).

Conclusion

Plasma NP level is a significant prognostic marker for all-cause death, stroke/systemic embolism and HF hospitalization in AF patients without HF, suggesting the importance of measuring plasma NP level in AF patients even without HF.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Impact of anemia on the relationship between vascular endothelial growth factor C and mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

The lymphatic system has been suggested to play an important role in cholesterol metabolism and cardiovascular (CV) disease. Recently, we demonstrated that serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C), a central player of lymphangiogenesis, are inversely and independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the impact of anemia on the relationship between VEGF-C and mortality in those patients is unclear.

Methods

Serum VEGF-C levels were measured in 2,418 patients with suspected or known CAD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict CV events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level of less than 13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence (anemic, n=882) or absence (non-anemic, n=1,536) of anemia. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were CV death, and major adverse CV events (MACE) defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 164 anemic and 90 non-anemic patients died from any cause, 64 anemic and 24 non-anemic patients died from CV disease, and 96 anemic and 69 non-anemic patients developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-C levels were significantly and inversely associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59–0.84), CV death (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.44–0.79), and MACE (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.60–0.95) in anemic, while VEGF-C levels were not significantly associated with all-cause death (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.69–1.11), CV death (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.85–1.93), or MACE (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.87–1.42) in non-anemic patients. Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-C levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (P<0.001 for continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], P=0.006 for integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]) and CV death (P<0.001 for NRI, P=0.005 for IDI), but not that of MACE (P=0.021 for NRI, P=0.059 for IDI) in anemic, whereas the addition of VEGF-C levels did not improved the prediction of all-cause death (P=0.234 for NRI, P=0.415 for IDI), CV death (P=0.190 for NRI, P=0.392 for IDI) or MACE (P=0.897 for NRI, P=0.128 for IDI) in non-anemic patients.

Conclusions

The VEGF-C level was inversely and independently associated with all-cause and CV mortality in anemic, but not in non-anemic patients with suspected or known CAD. The inverse relationship between VEGF-C and mortality may depend on the presence of anemia.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

Impact of chronic kidney disease on the relationship between vascular endothelial growth factor C and mortality in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

The lymphatic system has been suggested to play an important role in cholesterol metabolism and cardiovascular (CV) disease. Recently, we demonstrated that serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor C (VEGF-C), a central player of lymphangiogenesis, are inversely and independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on the relationship between VEGF-C and mortality in patients with suspected CAD is unclear.

Methods

Serum VEGF-C levels were measured in 1,717 patients with suspected but no history of CAD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict CV events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence (CKD, n=674) or absence (non-CKD, n=1,043) of CKD. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were CV death, and major adverse CV events (MACE) defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 95 CKD and 66 non-CKD patients died from any cause, 37 CKD and 13 non-CKD died from CV disease, and 61 CKD and 43 non-CKD developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-C levels were significantly and inversely associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57–0.90) and CV death (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.48–0.97), but not with MACE (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.60–1.03) in CKD, while VEGF-C levels were significantly and inversely associated with all-cause death (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.52–0.91), but not with CV death (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.50–1.66) or MACE (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.81–1.44) in non-CKD. Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-C levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (P=0.047 for continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], P=0.048 for integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]), but not that of CV death (P=0.016 for NRI, P=0.245 for IDI) or MACE (P=0.166 for NRI, P=0.311 for IDI) in CKD, whereas the addition of VEGF-C levels did not improve the prediction of all-cause death (P=0.053 for NRI, P=0.012 for IDI), CV death (P=0.864 for NRI, P=0.602 for IDI) or MACE (P=0.999 for NRI, P=0.154 for IDI) in non-CKD.

Conclusions

The VEGF-C level inversely and independently predicted all-cause mortality in CKD, but not in non-CKD patients with suspected CAD. The inverse relationship between VEGF-C and all-cause mortality in patients with suspected CAD seems to be remarkable in the presence of CKD.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

Impact of anemia on the relationships of growth differentiation factor 15 with mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease: the ANOX study

Background

Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a stress-responsive cytokine that plays an important role in the regulation of the inflammatory response, growth and cell differentiation. An elevated GDF-15 was found in various conditions including anemia and stable coronary artery disease (CAD), and it was reported to predict mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events in general population and in patients with established CAD. However, the impact of anemia on the relationships of GDF-15 with mortality and CV events in patients with suspected or known CAD is unclear.

Methods

Serum GDF-15 levels were measured in 2,418 patients with suspected or known CAD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict CV events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level of less than 13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence (anemic, n=882) or absence (non-anemic, n=1,536) of anemia. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were CV death, and major adverse CV events (MACE) defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 164 anemic and 90 non-anemic patients died from any cause, 64 anemic and 24 non-anemic patients died from CV disease, and 96 anemic and 69 non-anemic patients developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51–2.04), CV death (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.30–2.13), and MACE (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.18–1.81) in anemic, while GDF-15 levels were also significantly associated with all-cause death (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.27–1.69), CV death (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.18–1.99), and MACE (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.004–1.50) in non-anemic patients. Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of GDF-15 levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (P<0.001 for continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], P<0.001 for integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]), CV death (P=0.026 for NRI, P=0.023 for IDI), and MACE (P=0.025 for NRI, P=0.042 for IDI) in anemic, whereas it did not improved the prediction of all-cause death (P=0.072 for NRI, P=0.079 for IDI), CV death (P=0.289 for NRI, P=0.179 for IDI) or MACE (P=0.397 for NRI, P=0.230 for IDI) in non-anemic patients.

Conclusions

The GDF-15 level significantly improved the prediction of all-cause death, CV death, and MACE in anemic, but not in non-anemic patients with suspected or known CAD. The relationships of GDF-15 with mortality and CV events seem to be remarkable in the presence of anemia.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

Impact of smoking status on the relationships of growth differentiation factor 15 with mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease: the ANOX study

Background

Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a stress-responsive cytokine that plays an important role in the regulation of the inflammatory response, growth and cell differentiation. An elevated GDF-15 was found in various conditions including cigarette smoking and stable coronary artery disease (CAD), and it was reported to predict mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events in general population and in patients with established CAD. However, the impact of smoking status on the relationships of GDF-15 with mortality and CV events in patients with suspected or known CAD is unclear.

Methods

Serum GDF-15 levels were measured in 2,418 patients with suspected or known CAD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict CV events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the smoking status: current (n=428), past (n=1,035), and never smokers (n=955). The outcomes were total death, CV death, and major adverse CV events (MACE) defined as a composite of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 48 current, 120 past, and 86 never smokers died from any cause, 17 current, 47 past, and 24 never smokers died from CV disease, and 35 current, 80 past, and 50 never smokers developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with total death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.65), but not with CV death (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.69–1.62) or MACE (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.64–1.34) in current smokers; GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with total death (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.46–2.05) and CV death (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.09–1.85), but not with MACE (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.96–1.48) in past smokers; GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with total death (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.32–1.95), CV death (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.22–2.46), and MACE (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.27–2.07) in never smokers. Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of GDF-15 levels further improved the prediction of total death (P<0.001 for continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], P=0.001 for integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]) and MACE (P<0.001 for NRI, P=0.045 for IDI), but not that of CV death, in never smokers, while it did not significantly improved the prediction of total death, CV death, or MACE either in current or in past smokers.

Conclusions

The GDF-15 level was independently associated with total death and MACE in never, but not in current or past smokers with suspected or known CAD. The relationships of GDF-15 with mortality and CV events seem to be attenuated by the presence of current and past smoking.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

P3771Validation of risk scoring system predicting for progression of atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risks of thromboembolism and death. Progression from paroxysmal to sustained types (persistent or permanent) of AF is sometimes seen in clinical practice. We recently reported that progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events in Japanese AF patients. However, risk stratification schemes of predicting the progression of AF has not been fully established.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry, a community-based prospective survey, was designed to enroll all of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, which is a typical urban district of Japan with a population of 283,000. Follow-up data were available for 4,454 patients. We investigated the risk factors of AF progression and validated the performance of various risk scoring systems predicting for progression of AF, such as APPLE, BASE-AF2, HATCH, and MB-LATER score, using data from 995 paroxysmal AF patients (mean age; 72.6±11.4 years, female; 42.2%, mean CHA2DS2-VASc score; 3.26±1.67) whose echocardiogram data were obtained at baseline.

Results

Of 995 AF patients, during the median follow-up of 1,477 days, progression from paroxysmal to sustained AF occurred in 160 patients (16.1%; 4.0 per 100 person-years). On a multivariate model, we indicated that history of AF ≥2 years (odds ratio [OR] 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28–2.61), left atrial diameter ≥40 mm (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.02–2.08), daily drinker (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.24–2.81), and cardiomyopathy (OR 2.58; 95% CI 1.17–5.69) were significantly associated with higher incidence of AF progression. Our model had better predictive potential for AF progression (area under curve [AUC] 0.612; 95% CI 0.566–0.658) than the APPLE (AUC 0.553; 95% CI 0.508–0.598; p=0.06), BASE-AF2 (AUC 0.571; 95% CI 0.526–0.617; p=0.04), CHADS2 (AUC 0.508; 95% CI 0.462–0.554; p<0.01), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.501; 95% CI 0.453–0.548; p<0.01), HATCH (AUC 0.502; 95% CI 0.456–0.548; p<0.01), and MB-LATER (AUC 0.528; 95% CI 0.483–0.572; p<0.01) score.

Conclusion

We identified 4 risk factors which may be useful to predict for progression of AF in Japanese patients. External validation of our model in other cohorts is needed.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Boehringer, Bayer, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Novartis, MSD, Sanofi and Takeda. Japan Agency for Medical Research

P5431The relationship between pulse rate and the risk of cardiac events in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Relationship between pulse rate (PR) and cardiac events in patients with sustained (persistent and permanent) atrial fibrillation (AF) in routine clinical practice remains unclear.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto. Follow-up data were available for 4,454 patients, and we obtained PR at baseline in 2,209 patients of 2,248 sustained AF patients. We divided these patients into four groups based on their PR; G1 (PR≥100 bpm, n=249), G2 (80 bpm≤PR<100 bpm, n=821), G3 (60 bpm≤PR<80 bpm, n=986), and G4 (PR<60 bpm, n=153), and examined the relationship between PR and cardiac events (composite of cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure (HF)).

Results

Proportion of female and symptomatic AF were more in G1 group, and diastolic blood pressure was higher in G1 group, despite that systolic blood pressure was similar between the four groups. Prevalence of anemia was higher in G1 group, and that of chronic kidney disease was higher in G4 group. Prevalence of HF and left ventricular dysfunction tended to be higher in G1 group but not statistically significant. Beta-blockers and non-dihydropyridine calcium blockers were more often prescribed in G1 group. During the median follow-up of 1,449 days, cardiac events occurred in 399 patients (358 hospitalization for HF and 41 cardiovascular death). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence of cardiac events were comparable between the four groups (p=0.3). The incidence of all cause death (p=0.06) and stroke or systemic embolism (p=0.4) was also similar between the four groups. The incidence of cardiac events did not differ between the four groups when we divided the patients based on the presence of HF at baseline, and the incidence of cardiac events was also comparable between the four groups after adjusting potential confounders. However, when we examined the impact of PR according to 10 bpm increment, patients with very low PR (<50 bpm) (hazard ratio [95% confidence intervals], 2.22 [1.04–4.15]) and very high PR (≥110 bpm) (hazard ratio [95% confidence intervals], 1.67 [1.00–2.64]) had higher incidence of cardiac events than patients with PR of 70–79 bpm (Figure). Furthermore, we acquired the annual follow-up data of PR. Mean PR during the follow-up periods was not different between patients with cardiac events and those without (with vs without, 79.5±15.3 bpm vs 79.7±12.7 bpm; p=0.8), whereas maximum PR was less in patients with cardiac events (85.2±17.5 bpm vs 89.3±16.2 bpm; p<0.0001). Patients with maximum PR<60 bpm showed higher incidence of cardiac events, and the incidence of cardiac events was the lowest in patients with maximum PR of 80 to 99 bpm (maximum PR<60 bpm: 31.3%, 60–79 bpm: 24.5%, 80–99 bpm: 14.5%, 100 bpm: 16.1%; P<ehz746.03881).

Conclusion

PR did not appear to have strong impact on cardiac events in patients with sustained AF. However, low PR might be a risk for developing cardiac events.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development, AMED (15656344, 16768811), Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb

P3755Left atrial enlargement as an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke in Japanese atrial fibrillation patients: pooled analysis of five major Japanese atrial fibrillation registries

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of ischemic stroke. It remains unknown whether left atrial diameter determined by routine trans-thoracic echocardiography is a risk factor for ischemic stroke in non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of left atrial enlargement (LAE) on the incidence of ischemic stroke in a large-scale cohort of Japanese NVAF patients.

Methods

We combined the data of 5 major AF registries in Japan, J-RHYTHM Registry, Fushimi AF Registry, Shinken Database, Keio interhospital Cardiovascular Studies, and Hokuriku AF Registry. After excluding patients without echocardiographic data, 7,672 NVAF patients were analyzed in the present study (mean age, 69.3±12.3 years; mean CHADS2 score, 1.6±1.3). We compared clinical characteristics and the incidence of ischemic stroke between NVAF patients with LAE (left atrial diameter >45 mm; LAE group) and those without (non-LAE group).

Results

The mean left atrial diameter was 43.1±8.6 mm, and the LAE group accounted for 40.0% (n=3,066) of the entire cohort. Compared with non-LAE group (60.0%, n=4,606), the LAE group was older (LAE vs. non-LAE; 70.3±12.0 vs. 68.0±12.5, p<0.01), more often non-paroxysmal type (73.7% vs. 32.1%, p<0.01), had higher CHADS2 (1.86±1.34 vs. 1.46±1.29, p<0.01) and CHA2DS2-VASc (3.02±1.83 vs. 2.53±1.78, p<0.01) scores, and more frequently received oral anticoagulant (72.9% vs. 55.0%, p<0.01).

During the median follow-up period of 774.5 days (interquartile range: 567–1466 days), ischemic stroke occurred in 241 patients (131 vs. 110 patients; 1.52 vs. 0.82 per 100 person-years). In Kaplan Meier analysis, LAE was associated with a higher incidence of ischemic stroke (unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42–2.36; log rank p<0.01) (Figure). LAE was independently associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.25–2.11; p<0.01) after adjustment by the components of CHADS2 score and the use of oral anticoagulant, on multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis.

Conclusion

In this large-scale cohort of Japanese patients with AF, LAE was an independent predictor of ischemic stroke, suggesting that this simple echocardiographic parameter could refine thromboembolic risk stratification of NVAF patients.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development, AMED

P1645Vascular endothelial growth factor-D and mortality in suspected or known coronary heart disease patients with a history of heart failure: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Vascular endothelial growth factor-D (VEGF-D) is a secreted glycoprotein that can act as lymphangiogenic and angiogenic growth factors through binding to its specific receptors, VEGFR-3 (Flt-4) and VEGFR-2 (KDR/Flk-1). VEGF-D signaling via VEGFR-3 plays an important role in lipoprotein metabolisms which may contribute to coronary heart disease (CHD). Recent studies suggest that VEGF-D appears to be a biomarker of pulmonary congestion and heart failure in both dyspnea patients and the general population. However, the prognostic value of VEGF-D in suspected or known CHD patients with a history of heart failure is unknown.

Methods

Serum VEGF-D levels were measured in 253 suspected or known CHD patients with a history of heart failure undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict cardiovascular events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 54 patients died from any cause, 24 died from cardiovascular disease, and 35 developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-D levels were significantly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18–1.75), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.32–2.25), and MACE (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.14–1.89). Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-D levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.471; 95% CI, 0.176–0.766; P=0.002; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.036; 95% CI, 0.008–0.064; P=0.011) and cardiovascular death (NRI, 0.722; 95% CI, 0.326–1.118; P<0.001; IDI, 0.063; 95% CI, 0.005–0.122; P=0.033), but not that of MACE (NRI, 0.453; 95% CI, 0.100–0.805; P=0.012; IDI, 0.028; 95% CI, −0.007–0.063; P=0.116).

Conclusions

In suspected or known CHD patients with a history of heart failure undergoing elective coronary angiography, elevated VEGF-D levels may predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality independent of established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

P3639Vascular endothelial growth factor-C and mortality in patients with suspected but no history of coronary heart disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

The lymphatic system has been suggested to play an important role in cholesterol metabolism and cardiovascular disease. Recently, we demonstrated that serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor-C (VEGF-C), a central player of lymphangiogenesis, are inversely and independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the prognostic value of VEGF-C in patients with suspected but no history of CHD is still unclear.

Methods

Serum VEGF-C levels were measured in 1,717 patients with suspected but no history of CHD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict cardiovascular events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 161 patients died from any cause, 50 died from cardiovascular disease, and 104 developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-C levels were significantly and inversely associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58–0.83) and cardiovascular death (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52–0.998), but not with MACE (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.74–1.13). Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-C levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.282; 95% CI, 0.121–0.443; P<0.001; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.009; 95% CI, 0.003–0.016; P=0.005), but not that of cardiovascular death (NRI, 0.178; 95% CI, r=−0.103–0.458; P=0.214; IDI, 0.004; 95% CI, r=−0.002–0.009; P=0.194) or MACE (NRI, 0.037; 95% CI, r=−0.162–0.235; P=0.717; IDI, 0.000; 95% CI, r=−0.0004–0.0005; P=0.872).

Conclusions

In patients with suspected but no history of CHD undergoing elective coronary angiography, a low VEGF-C value may predict all-cause mortality independent of established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization

5195Growth differentiation factor-15 and mortality in suspected or known coronary heart disease patients with diabetes: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Diabetes is a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD), but further risk stratification in patients with diabetes is necessary to improve the prediction and prevention of cardiovascular events and deaths. Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is a stress-responsive cytokine, which plays an important role in the regulation of the inflammatory response, growth and cell differentiation. Elevated GDF-15 was found in various diseases including diabetes and stable CHD, and was reported to predict mortality and cardiovascular events in general or established CHD population. However, the prognostic value of GDF-15 in suspected or known CHD patients with diabetes is unknown.

Methods

Serum GDF-15 levels were measured in 1,087 suspected or known CHD patients with diabetes undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict cardiovascular events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 147 patients died from any cause, 47 died from cardiovascular disease, and 94 developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, GDF-15 levels were significantly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48–1.86), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.34–1.99), and MACE (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.20–1.65). Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of GDF-15 levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.344; 95% CI, 0.172–0.517; P<0.001; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.049; 95% CI, 0.026–0.072; P<0.001), but not that of cardiovascular death (NRI, −0.013; 95% CI, −0.300–0.274; P=0.931; IDI, 0.023; 95% CI, 0.003–0.043; P=0.026) or MACE (NRI, 0.059; 95% CI, −0.151–0.268; P=0.583; IDI, 0.005; 95% CI, −0.004–0.015; P=0.244).

Conclusions

In suspected or known CHD patients with diabetes undergoing elective coronary angiography, elevated GDF-15 levels may predict all-cause mortality independent of established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

P5529Vascular endothelial growth factor-D and mortality in suspected or known coronary heart disease patients with diabetes: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Diabetes is a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD), but further risk stratification in patients with diabetes is necessary to improve the prediction and prevention of cardiovascular events and deaths. Vascular endothelial growth factor-D (VEGF-D) is a secreted glycoprotein that can act as lymphangiogenic and angiogenic growth factors through binding to its specific receptors, VEGFR-3 (Flt-4) and VEGFR-2 (KDR/Flk-1). VEGF-D signaling via VEGFR-3 plays an important role in lipoprotein metabolisms which may contribute to CHD. VEGF-D signaling has been used as a therapeutic target of human diseases such as lymphangioleiomyomatosis and refractory angina. Furthermore, in clinical settings, the VEGF-D level is already established as a diagnostic biomarker for lymphangioleiomyomatosis. However, the prognostic value of VEGF-D in suspected or known CHD patients with diabetes is unknown.

Methods

Serum VEGF-D levels were measured in 1,087 suspected or known CHD patients with diabetes undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict cardiovascular events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 147 patients died from any cause, 47 died from cardiovascular disease, and 94 developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-D levels were significantly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–1.47), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18–1.62), and MACE (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.07–1.40). Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-D levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.258; 95% CI, 0.088–0.429; P=0.003; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.013; 95% CI, 0.002–0.024; P=0.022), but not that of cardiovascular death (NRI, 0.046; 95% CI, −0.245–0.336; P=0.759; IDI, 0.013; 95% CI, −0.005–0.031; P=0.146) or MACE (NRI, 0.064; 95% CI, −0.146–0.274; P=0.552; IDI, 0.001; 95% CI, −0.002–0.004; P=0.557).

Conclusions

In suspected or known CHD patients with diabetes undergoing elective coronary angiography, elevated VEGF-D levels may predict all-cause mortality independent of established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization

P5526Vascular endothelial growth factor-D and mortality in suspected or known coronary heart disease patients with chronic kidney disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an independent risk factor for the development and progression of coronary heart disease (CHD). Vascular endothelial growth factor-D (VEGF-D) is a secreted glycoprotein that can act as lymphangiogenic and angiogenic growth factors through binding to its specific receptors, VEGFR-3 (Flt-4) and VEGFR-2 (KDR/Flk-1). VEGF-D signaling via VEGFR-3 plays an important role in lipoprotein metabolisms which may contribute to CHD. VEGF-D signaling has been used as a therapeutic target of human diseases such as lymphangioleiomyomatosis and refractory angina. Furthermore, in clinical settings, the VEGF-D level is already established as a diagnostic biomarker for lymphangioleiomyomatosis. However, the prognostic value of VEGF-D in suspected or known CHD patients with CKD is unknown.

Methods

Serum VEGF-D levels were measured in 999 suspected or known CHD patients with CKD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict cardiovascular events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 154 patients died from any cause, 61 died from cardiovascular disease, and 96 developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-D levels were significantly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27–1.56), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.28–1.71), and MACE (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.18–1.53). Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-D levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.272; 95% CI, 0.100–0.445; P=0.002; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.015; 95% CI, 0.003–0.027; P=0.013), but not that of cardiovascular death (NRI, 0.230; 95% CI, −0.029 to 0.488; P=0.082; IDI, 0.012; 95% CI, −0.007 to 0.031; P=0.207) or MACE (NRI, 0.102; 95% CI, −0.106 to 0.310; P=0.337; IDI, 0.005; 95% CI, −0.005 to 0.015; P=0.337).

Conclusions

In suspected or known CHD patients with CKD undergoing elective coronary angiography, elevated VEGF-D levels may predict all-cause mortality independent of established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization

P3765Low vascular endothelial growth factor-C was a predictor for cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation and suspected or known coronary artery disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Lymphatic system has been considered to play an important role in cardiovascular disease. We recently reported that vascular endothelial growth factor-C (VEGF-C), a central player in lymphangiogenesis, predicted all-cause mortality in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD). However, relationship between VEGF-C and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unclear.

Methods

The ANOX study is a multicenter, prospective cohort study of 2,418 patients with suspected CAD, to determine the predictive value of possible novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among patients undergoing elective angiography. Blood samples were collected from the arterial catheter sheath at the beginning of coronary angiography. Serum levels of VEGF-C, as well as N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin-I (cTnI), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), were measured. The outcome was a MACE defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

Of a total of 2,418 patients, 261 patients had AF at baseline. AF group were older, and had more chronic kidney disease, history of heart failure, and history of stroke, but less diabetes, dyslipidemia, and CAD. The median level of NT-proBNP, cTnI, and hsCRP were higher in AF group [AF vs non-AF: NT-proBNP, 1048 pg/ml vs 162 pg/ml (p<0.0001); cTnI, 0.0003 ng/ml, vs 0.0 ng/ml (p<0.0001); hsCRP, 1.43 ug/ml vs 0.88 ug/ml (p=0.0005)], whereas median level of VEGF-C was lower in AF group [3107 pg/ml vs 3590 pg/ml (p<0.0001)]. AF was associated with lower VEGF-C and higher hsCRP after adjustment for potential confounders. During the 3-year follow-up, 29 (11.1%) patients in AF group and 136 (6.3%) patients in non-AF group developed MACE (p=0.007). Incidence of stroke was higher in AF group (17 (6.5%) vs 52 (2.4%); p<0.0009), despite that the incidence of cardiovascular death and myocardial infarction were similar between the groups. We divided the entire cohort into two groups based on the lowest quartile of VEGF-C or highest quartile of other biomarkers, lowest quartile of VEGF-C (log rank p=0.0004), as well as highest quartile of cTnI (log rank p=0.0009), were significantly associated with MACE in AF group. After adjustment for established risk factors and these biomarkers, both lowest quartile of VEGF-C (HR, 2.73; 95% CI, 1.27–6.06) and highest quartile of cTnI (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.08–6.09) were significantly associated with MACE in AF group.

Conclusions

AF was associated with lower level of VEGF-C, and low VEGF-C as well as high cTnI might serve as an independent predictor of MACE in patients with AF and suspected or known CAD.

P3780Clinical characteristics and outcomes in Japanese atrial fibrillation patients with valvular heart disease: the Fushimi AF registry

Background

Previous studies have suggested that valvular atrial fibrillation (VAF), defined as atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with prosthetic valve or rheumatic mitral stenosis, increased the risks of thromboembolism. However, clinical characteristics and outcomes of VAF and non-valvular AF (NVAF) patients with other valvular heart disease (VHD) has not been fully described.

Method

The Fushimi AF Registry was designed to enroll all of the AF patients. In the entire cohort (4,454 patients), follow-up data including echocardiography data were available for 3,566 patients. We compared clinical characteristics and outcomes between 131 VAF patients (3.7%), 583 NVAF with VHD (NVAF-VHD: 16.3%) and 2,852 without VHD (Non-VHD: 80.0%).

Result

Compared with Non-VHD, patients in VAF and NVAF-VHD were older (VAF vs. NVAF-VHD vs. Non-VHD: 74.3 vs. 76.9 vs. 72.9 years, respectively; p≤0.0001), more often female (56.5% vs. 51.1% vs. 36.9%, p≤0.0001), less in body weight (54.3 vs. 54.7 vs. 60.6 kg, p≤0.0001), more persistent/permanent type (64.1% vs. 65.4% vs. 45.8%, p≤0.0001), more likely to have heart failure (61.8% vs. 53.2% vs. 23.3%, p≤0.0001), had higher CHADS2 score (2.18 vs. 2.49 vs. 1.96, p≤0.0001) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.71 vs. 4.02 vs. 3.26, p≤0.0001), and received oral anticoagulant prescription more frequently (78.6% vs. 63.0% vs. 55.6%, p0.0001). NVAF-VHD was more likely to have previous stroke/systemic embolism (SE) than VHD or Non-VHD (14.5% vs. 23.5% vs. 19.6%, p=0.03). VAF or NVAF-VHD had larger left atrium than Non-VHD (50.5 vs. 47.2 vs. 42.4 mm, p<0.0001). Heart rate, diabetes mellitus and previous bleeding were comparable between the groups.

During the median follow-up of 1,471 days, the incidence rate of stroke/SE was not significantly different between three groups, however, NVAF-VHD showed modestly higher rate than Non-VHD (1.67 vs. 1.96 vs. 1.28 per 100 person-years, respectively, log rank p=0.054) (Figure). The incidence rates of all-cause death (4.62 vs. 5.74 vs. 3.21, p≤0.0001), cardiac death (1.07 vs. 1.01 vs. 0.44, p=0.0003), and those of hospitalization for heart failure (3.29 vs. 4.41 vs. 1.80, p≤0.0001) were higher in NVAF-VHD and VAF, than Non-VHD. After adjustment by relevant factors including the components of CHA2DS2-VASc score and oral anticoagulant use, NVAF-VHD, but not VAF, was an independent predictor for hospitalization for heart failure. Neither VAF nor NVAF-VHD was predictors for all-cause death, cardiac death or stroke/SE.

Figure 1. Incidence of stroke/SE

Conclusion

As compared with Non-VHD, the risk of stroke/SE in VAF and NVAF-VHD was not particularly high; although NVAF-VHD had modestly higher rate than Non-VHD. VAF and NVAF-VHD were associated with higher incidence rates of all-cause death, cardiac death and hospitalization for heart failure. NVAF-VHD was an independent predictor for hospitalization for heart failure in multivariate analysis.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare and Daiichi Sankyo

P5592Thrombolysis with tissue plasminogen activator for patients with acute pulmonary embolisms in the real world: from the COMMAND VTE Registry

Background/Introduction

There is still uncertainty about the optimal usage of thrombolysis for acute pulmonary embolisms (PEs), leading to widely varying usage of thrombolysis in the real world. However, these have not been fully evaluated yet.

Purpose

We sought to evaluate the management strategies and clinical outcomes of thrombolysis for acute PEs in the real world.

Methods

The COMMAND VTE Registry is a multicenter registry enrolling 3,027 consecutive patients with acute symptomatic venous thromboembolisms in Japan between January 2010 and August 2014. The present study population consisted of 1,549 patients with PEs who received tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) thrombolysis (N=180, 12%), or those who did not (N=1,369). The effectiveness outcome was all-cause death. The safety outcome was major bleeding. We used a multivariable logistic regression analysis to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), to adjust clinically relevant confounders (age, sex, history of major bleeding, active cancer, and anemia). Additionally, we conducted stratified analysis by clinical severity, and we also evaluated clinical outcomes according to dosages of t-PA.

Results

Patients with t-PA thrombolysis were younger, and more frequently had higher body weight, but less frequently had active cancer, history of major bleeding, and anemia. More than half of patients with t-PA thrombolysis were patients with mild PEs, and the proportions of t-PA thrombolysis varied widely across the participating centers. More than half of patients received low-dose of t-PA (<20,000 IU/kg). As for the effectiveness, 9 (5.0%) patients in the t-PA thrombolysis group and 95 (6.9%) patients in the non t-PA thrombolysis group died at 30 days (Crude OR, 0.71; 95% CI 0.35–1.42, P=0.33). As for the safety, 7 (3.9%) patients in the t-PA thrombolysis group and 22 (1.6%) patients in the non t-PA thrombolysis group experienced major bleeding events at 10 days (Crude OR, 2.48; 95% CI 1.04–5.88, P=0.04). T-PA thrombolysis group had a significantly higher risk for 10-day major bleeding (Adjusted OR, 4.01; 95% CI 1.57–10.2, P=0.004), but not a lower risk for 30-day mortality (Adjusted OR, 1.10; 95% CI 0.53–2.28, P=0.79), although the risk for 30-day mortality was significantly lower in those with severe PEs (Adjusted OR, 0.36; 95% CI 0.15–0.88, P=0.02). After adjusting confounders, the 10-day major bleeding risk of the low-dose of t-PA group relative to the standard-dose of t-PA group tended to be lower (Adjusted OR, 0.07; 95% CI 0.004–1.05, P=0.05).

Conclusions

In the present real-world registry, relatively large number of patients received t-PA thrombolysis with wide variation across the participating centers. T-PA thrombolysis was significantly associated with a higher risk for major bleeding, but not a lower risk for mortality, although there appeared to be a benefit of t-PA thrombolysis in decreasing the risk for mortality in patients with severe PEs.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Research Institute for Production Development, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation

P5663Impact of proteinuria on cardiovascular outcomes in Japanese diabetic patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Previous studies have suggested that proteinuria is independently associated with clinical outcomes in diabetic patients, irrespective of the presence of renal dysfunction. However, data regarding the impact of proteinuria on clinical outcomes in diabetic patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in our city in Japan. Follow-up data were available in 4,454 patients, and 634 diabetic patients with available data of proteinuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were examined. We compared the clinical background and outcomes between patients with proteinuria (n=251) and those without (n=383). Then, we divided the patients into 4 subgroups according to the presence of proteinuria and renal dysfunction, and compared the clinical outcomes between groups; group 1 (without proteinuria, eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2; n=203), group 2 (with proteinuria, eGFR ≥60; n=96), group 3 (without proteinuria, eGFR <60; n=180), group 4 (with proteinuria, eGFR <60; n=155).

Results

Age was comparable between patients with or without proteinuria. Patients with proteinuria had higher prevalences of previous heart failure (HF), stroke/systemic embolism, hypertension and renal dysfunction. The prevalences of previous myocardial infarction, and major bleeding were similar between two groups. During the median follow-up of 1,505 days, the incidence rates of HF hospitalization (4.1/100 person-years vs. 2.5/100 person-years; p<0.01) and cardiovascular death (1.8/100 person-years vs. 0.4/100 person-years; p<0.01) were higher in patients with proteinuria. When we divided patients into 4 subgroups, the incidences of HF hospitalization (group 1: 1.8/100 person-years vs. group 2: 3.4/100 person-years vs. group 3: 3.8/100 person-years vs. group 4: 4.9/100 person-years; p<0.01) and cardiovascular death (group 1: 0.3/100 person-years vs. group 2: 1.8/100 person-years vs. group 3: 0.5/100 person-years vs. group 4: 2.2/100 person-years; p<0.01) tended to be higher in not only group 3 and group 4 but also group 2 than group 1 (Figure). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis including female gender, age (≥75 years), hypertension, pre-existing HF, renal dysfunction (eGFR <60),low left ventricular ejection fraction (<40%) and proteinuria revealed that proteinuria was an independent determinant of both of HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–2.34) and cardiovascular death (HR: 3.76, 95% CI: 1.59–8.88).

Figure 1

Conclusion

In Japanese diabetic patients with AF, proteinuria was associated with higher incidences of HF hospitalization and cardiovascular death, irrespective of the presence of renal dysfunction.

P3635Vascular endothelial growth factor-D and mortality in patients with suspected but no history of coronary heart disease: a subanalysis of the ANOX study

Background

Vascular endothelial growth factor-D (VEGF-D) is a secreted glycoprotein that can act as lymphangiogenic and angiogenic growth factors through binding to its specific receptors, VEGFR-3 (Flt-4) and VEGFR-2 (KDR/Flk-1). VEGF-D signaling via VEGFR-3 plays an important role in lipoprotein metabolisms which may contribute to coronary heart disease (CHD). VEGF-D signaling has been used as a therapeutic target of human diseases such as lymphangioleiomyomatosis and refractory angina. In clinical settings, the VEGF-D level is already established as a diagnostic biomarker for lymphangioleiomyomatosis. However, the prognostic value of VEGF-D in patients with suspected but no history of CHD is unknown.

Methods

Serum VEGF-D levels were measured in 1,717 patients with suspected but no history of CHD undergoing elective coronary angiography, enrolled in the development of novel biomarkers related to angiogenesis or oxidative stress to predict cardiovascular events (ANOX) study, and followed up for 3 years. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal stroke.

Results

During the follow-up, 161 patients died from any cause, 50 died from cardiovascular disease, and 104 developed MACE. After adjustment for established risk factors, VEGF-D levels were significantly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] for 1-SD increase, 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17–1.42), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.20–1.56), and MACE (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08–1.37). Even after incorporation of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin-I, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein into a model with established risk factors, the addition of VEGF-D levels further improved the prediction of all-cause death (continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.165; 95% CI, 0.004–0.325; P=0.044; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.012; 95% CI, 0.002–0.023; P=0.013), but not that of cardiovascular death (NRI, 0.078; 95% CI, r=−0.203–0.359; P=0.586; IDI, 0.014; 95% CI, r=−0.009–0.037; P=0.235) or MACE (NRI, r=−0.011; 95% CI, r=−0.207–0.184; P=0.337; IDI, 0.003; 95% CI, r=−0.003–0.009; P=0.354).

Conclusions

In patients with suspected but no history of CHD undergoing elective coronary angiography, elevated VEGF-D levels may predict all-cause mortality independent of established risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers.

Acknowledgement/Funding

The ANOX study is supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Clinical Research from the National Hospital Organization.

P3758Clinical characteristics and outcomes of atrial fibrillation patients with thrombocytopenia: the Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Thrombocytopenia is sometimes found in routine blood tests and is reported as a risk factor of major bleeding events and incidence of all-cause death after percutaneous coronary intervention. However, the influence of thrombocytopenia on clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unknown.

Purpose

We aimed to investigate relationship between baseline platelet count and clinical outcomes such as all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure, and the major bleeding event in AF patients.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry was designed to enroll all of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto. Fushimi-ku is densely populated with a total population of 283,000 and is assumed to represent a typical urban community in Japan. Follow-up data with baseline platelet counts were available in 4,179 patients from March 2011 to November 2018. We divided the entire cohort into 3 groups according to baseline platelet level: No thrombocytopenia (≥150,000/μL, n=3,323), Mild thrombocytopenia (100,000–149,999/μL, n=707), and Moderate/severe thrombocytopenia (≤99,999/μL, n=149).

Results

In the entire cohort, the mean age was 73 years, 40% were women, and the mean body weight and body mass index was 59 kg and 23.1 kg/m2, and the median platelet count were 192,000/μL (interquartile range 156,000 to 232,000/μL), respectively.

Compared to No thrombocytopenia, patients with thrombocytopenia were older (No vs. Mild vs. Moderate/severe; 73.3 years vs. 76.5 years vs. 75.8 years, p<0.0001), more likely to have heart failure (27.0% vs. 32.8% vs. 41.6%, p<0.0001), more likely to have chronic renal disease (35.7% vs. 42.6% vs. 57.7%, p<0.0001), and had higher CHADS2 score (2.05 vs. 2.17 vs. 2.34, p=0.0039) and CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.40 vs. 3.52 vs. 3.71, p=0.0416). Patients with thrombocytopenia had lower hemoglobin (13.0 vs. 12.8 vs. 11.6, p<0.0001) than No thrombocytopenia. However, prevalence of previous major bleeding events was comparable between three groups (4.66% vs. 4.67% vs. 5.37%, p=0.92)

On Kaplan-Meier analysis, the incidence of all-cause death was higher in Mild group (hazard ratio [HR] 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28–1.77) and Moderate/severe group (HR 2.97; 95% CI 2.28–3.80) than No group (Figure 1). The incidence of hospitalization for heart failure was higher in Mild group (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.31–1.99) and Moderate/severe group (HR 2.64; 95% CI 1.76–3.81) than No group (Figure 2). The incidence of major bleeding event was higher in Mild group (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.11–1.91) and Moderate/severe group (HR 2.45; 95% CI 1.41–3.91) than No group (Figure 3).

Conclusion

Thrombocytopenia in AF patients was associated with higher incidence of all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure, and major bleeding event in the Fushimi AF Registry.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Pfizer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer Healthcare,and Daiichi-Sankyo