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Guner R, Kayaaslan B, Hasanoglu I, Aypak A, Bodur H, Ates I, Akinci E, Erdem D, Eser F, Izdes S, Kalem AK, Bastug A, Karalezli A, Surel AA, Ayhan M, Karaahmetoglu S, Turan IO, Arguder E, Ozdemir B, Mutlu MN, Bilir YA, Sarıcaoglu EM, Gokcinar D, Gunay S, Dinc B, Gemcioglu E, Bilmez R, Aydos O, Asilturk D, Inan O, Buzgan T. Development and validation of nomogram to predict severe illness requiring intensive care follow up in hospitalized COVID-19 cases. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:1004. [PMID: 34563117 PMCID: PMC8467006 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06656-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early identification of severe COVID-19 patients who will need intensive care unit (ICU) follow-up and providing rapid, aggressive supportive care may reduce mortality and provide optimal use of medical resources. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict severe COVID-19 cases that would need ICU follow-up based on available and accessible patient values. METHODS Patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between March 15, 2020, and June 15, 2020, were enrolled in this retrospective study with 35 variables obtained upon admission considered. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to select potential predictive parameters using 1000 bootstrap samples. Afterward, a nomogram was developed with 5 variables selected from multivariable analysis. The nomogram model was evaluated by Area Under the Curve (AUC) and bias-corrected Harrell's C-index with 95% confidence interval, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-fit test, and calibration curve analysis. RESULTS Out of a total of 1022 patients, 686 cases without missing data were used to construct the nomogram. Of the 686, 104 needed ICU follow-up. The final model includes oxygen saturation, CRP, PCT, LDH, troponin as independent factors for the prediction of need for ICU admission. The model has good predictive power with an AUC of 0.93 (0.902-0.950) and a bias-corrected Harrell's C-index of 0.91 (0.899-0.947). Hosmer-Lemeshow test p-value was 0.826 and the model is well-calibrated (p = 0.1703). CONCLUSION We developed a simple, accessible, easy-to-use nomogram with good distinctive power for severe illness requiring ICU follow-up. Clinicians can easily predict the course of COVID-19 and decide the procedure and facility of further follow-up by using clinical and laboratory values of patients available upon admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rahmet Guner
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Bilkent Street no:1, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
| | - Bircan Kayaaslan
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Bilkent Street no:1, Ankara, 06800, Turkey.
| | - Imran Hasanoglu
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Bilkent Street no:1, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
| | - Adalet Aypak
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Hurrem Bodur
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, University of Health Sciences, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ihsan Ates
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Esragul Akinci
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, University of Health Sciences, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Deniz Erdem
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Fatma Eser
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Bilkent Street no:1, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
| | - Seval Izdes
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation and Intensive Care Unıt, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ayse Kaya Kalem
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Bilkent Street no:1, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
| | - Aliye Bastug
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, University of Health Sciences, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Aysegul Karalezli
- Department of Pulmonary Diseases, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Aziz Ahmet Surel
- Department of General Surgery, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Muge Ayhan
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | | | - Isıl Ozkocak Turan
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation, University of Health Sciences, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Emine Arguder
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation and Intensive Care Unıt, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Burcu Ozdemir
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Mehmet Nevzat Mutlu
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Yesim Aybar Bilir
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Elif Mukime Sarıcaoglu
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Derya Gokcinar
- Department of Anesthesiology and Reanimation, University of Health Sciences, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Sibel Gunay
- Department of Pulmonary Diseases, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Bedia Dinc
- Department of Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Emin Gemcioglu
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Ruveyda Bilmez
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Omer Aydos
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Dilek Asilturk
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Osman Inan
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ankara City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Turan Buzgan
- Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology, Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara City Hospital, Bilkent Street no:1, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
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