Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations

Projection models are being increasingly used to manage threatened taxa by estimating their responses to climate change. Sea turtles are particularly susceptible to climate change as they have temperature-dependent sex determination and increased sand temperatures on nesting beaches could result in the 'feminisation' of hatchling sex ratios for some populations. This study modelled likely long-term trends in sand temperatures and hatchling sex ratios at an equatorial nesting site for endangered green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata). A total of 1078 days of sand temperature data were collected from 28 logger deployments at nest depth between 2018 and 2022 in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Long-term trends in sand temperature were generated from a model using air temperature as an environmental proxy. The influence of rainfall and seasonal variation on sand temperature was also investigated. Between 1960 and 2019, we estimated that sand temperature increased by ~0.6°C and the average hatchling sex ratio was relatively balanced (46.2% female, SD = 10.7). No trends were observed in historical rainfall anomalies and projections indicated no further changes to rainfall until 2100. Therefore, the sex ratio models were unlikely to be influenced by changing rainfall patterns. A relatively balanced sex ratio such as this is starkly different to the extremely female-skewed hatchling sex ratio (>99% female) reported for another Coral Sea nesting site, Raine Island (~850 km West). This PNG nesting site is likely rare in the global context, as it is less threatened by climate-induced feminisation. Although there is no current need for 'cooling' interventions, the mean projected sex ratios for 2020-2100 were estimated 76%-87% female, so future interventions may be required to increase male production. Our use of long-term sand temperature and rainfall trends has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on sea turtles.

The ecological importance of the accuracy of environmental temperature measurements

The implications of logger accuracy and precision are rarely considered prior to their application in many ecological studies. We assessed the accuracy and precision of three temperature data loggers widely used in ecological studies (Hobo®, iButton® and TinyTag®). Accuracy was highest in TinyTags (95% of readings were within 0.23°C of the true temperature) and lowest in HOBOs and iButtons (95% of were readings within 0.43°C and 0.49°C of the true temperature, respectively). The precision (standard deviation of the repeat measurements) was greatest in TinyTags (0.04°C), followed by iButtons (0.17°C) and then HOBOs (0.22°C). As a case study, we then considered how modelled estimates of sea turtle hatchling sex ratios (derived from temperature), could vary as a function of logger accuracy. For example, at 29°C when the mean sex ratio derived was 0.47 female, the sex ratio estimate from a single logger could vary between 0.40 and 0.50 for TinyTags and 0.29 and 0.56 for both HOBOs and iButtons. Our results suggest that these temperature loggers can provide reliable descriptions of sand temperature if they are not over-interpreted. Logger accuracy must be considered in future ecological studies in which temperature thresholds are important.

Influence of short-term temperature drops on sex-determination in sea turtles

All sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex-determination, where warmer temperatures produce mostly females and cooler temperatures produce mostly males. As global temperatures continue to rise, sea turtle sex-ratios are expected to become increasingly female-biased, threatening the long-term viability of many populations. Nest temperatures are dependent on sand temperature, and heavy rainfall events reduce sand temperatures for a brief period. However, it is unknown whether these short-term temperature drops are large and long enough to produce male hatchlings. To discover if short-term temperature drops within the sex-determining period can lead to male hatchling production, we exposed green and loggerhead turtle eggs to short-term temperature drops conducted in constant temperature rooms. We dropped incubation temperature at four different times during the sex-determining period for a duration of either 3 or 7 days to mimic short-term drops in temperature caused by heavy rainfall in nature. Some male hatchlings were produced when exposed to temperature drops for as little as 3 days, but the majority of male production occurred when eggs were exposed to 7 days of lowered temperature. More male hatchlings were produced when the temperature drop occurred during the middle of the sex-determining period in green turtles, and the beginning and end of the sex-determining period in loggerhead turtles. Inter-clutch variation was evident in the proportion of male hatchlings produced, indicating that maternal and or genetic factors influence male hatchling production. Our findings have management implications for the long-term preservation of sea turtles on beaches that exhibit strongly female-biased hatchling sex-ratios.