Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning via Adaptive Kalman Temporal Difference and Successor Representation

Development of distributed Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) algorithms has attracted an increasing surge of interest lately. Generally speaking, conventional Model-Based (MB) or Model-Free (MF) RL algorithms are not directly applicable to the MARL problems due to utilization of a fixed reward model for learning the underlying value function. While Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based solutions perform well, they are still prone to overfitting, high sensitivity to parameter selection, and sample inefficiency. In this paper, an adaptive Kalman Filter (KF)-based framework is introduced as an efficient alternative to address the aforementioned problems by capitalizing on unique characteristics of KF such as uncertainty modeling and online second order learning. More specifically, the paper proposes the Multi-Agent Adaptive Kalman Temporal Difference (MAK-TD) framework and its Successor Representation-based variant, referred to as the MAK-SR. The proposed MAK-TD/SR frameworks consider the continuous nature of the action-space that is associated with high dimensional multi-agent environments and exploit Kalman Temporal Difference (KTD) to address the parameter uncertainty. The proposed MAK-TD/SR frameworks are evaluated via several experiments, which are implemented through the OpenAI Gym MARL benchmarks. In these experiments, different number of agents in cooperative, competitive, and mixed (cooperative-competitive) scenarios are utilized. The experimental results illustrate superior performance of the proposed MAK-TD/SR frameworks compared to their state-of-the-art counterparts.

COVID19-HPSMP : COVID-19 adopted Hybrid and Parallel deep information fusion framework for stock price movement prediction

The novel of coronavirus (COVID-19) has suddenly and abruptly changed the world as we knew at the start of the 3rd decade of the 21st century. Particularly, COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected financial econometrics and stock markets across the globe. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)-based prediction models, especially Deep Neural Network (DNN) architectures, have the potential to act as a key enabling factor to reduce the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and future possible ones on financial markets. In this regard, first, a unique COVID-19 related PRIce MOvement prediction ( COVID19 PRIMO ) dataset is introduced in this paper, which incorporates effects of social media trends related to COVID-19 on stock market price movements. Afterwards, a novel hybrid and parallel DNN-based framework is proposed that integrates different and diversified learning architectures. Referred to as the COVID-19 adopted Hybrid and Parallel deep fusion framework for Stock price Movement Prediction ( COVID19-HPSMP ), innovative fusion strategies are used to combine scattered social media news related to COVID-19 with historical mark data. The proposed COVID19-HPSMP consists of two parallel paths (hence hybrid), one based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with Local/Global Attention modules, and one integrated CNN and Bi-directional Long Short term Memory (BLSTM) path. The two parallel paths are followed by a multilayer fusion layer acting as a fusion center that combines localized features. Performance evaluations are performed based on the introduced COVID19 PRIMO dataset illustrating superior performance of the proposed framework.