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Polvani LM, Wang L, Abalos M, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Dameris M, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Oman LD, Plummer DA, Stone KA. Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multi-model assessment. J Geophys Res Atmos 2019; 124:6669-6680. [PMID: 31632893 PMCID: PMC6800672 DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2018] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end we here analyze - over identical past and future periods - the output from 20 similarly-forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multi-model analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980-2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- L M Polvani
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA
- National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO USA
| | - L Wang
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - M Abalos
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - N Butchart
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, UK
| | | | - M Dameris
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - M Deushi
- Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - S S Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
| | - P Jöckel
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - D Kinnison
- National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO USA
| | - M Michou
- Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - O Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - L D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA
| | - D A Plummer
- Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, QC Canada
| | - K A Stone
- School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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Osprey SM, Butchart N, Knight JR, Scaife AA, Hamilton K, Anstey JA, Schenzinger V, Zhang C. An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. Science 2016; 353:1424-1427. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aah4156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 109] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Maycock AC, Ineson S, Gray LJ, Scaife AA, Anstey JA, Lockwood M, Butchart N, Hardiman SC, Mitchell DM, Osprey SM. Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes. J Geophys Res Atmos 2015; 120:9043-9058. [PMID: 26937327 PMCID: PMC4758621 DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2014] [Revised: 04/24/2015] [Accepted: 04/24/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. C. Maycock
- Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUK
| | - S. Ineson
- Met Office Hadley CentreMet OfficeExeterUK
| | - L. J. Gray
- National Centre for Atmospheric ScienceUK
- Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | - J. A. Anstey
- Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - M. Lockwood
- Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
| | | | | | - D. M. Mitchell
- Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
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Strahan SE, Douglass AR, Stolarski RS, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dhomse S, Frith SM, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle JA, Scinocca JF, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Butchart N, Charlton-Perez AJ, Cionni I, Hardiman SC, Haynes PH, Krüger K, Kushner PJ, Newman PA, Osprey SM, Perlwitz J, Sigmond M, Wang L, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Baumgaertner A, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Garcia R, Garny H, Jöckel P, Lamarque JF, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Pawson S, Plummer D, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Scinocca J, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Waugh D, Yamashita Y. Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Oman LD, Plummer DA, Waugh DW, Austin J, Scinocca JF, Douglass AR, Salawitch RJ, Canty T, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Frith S, Hardiman SC, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Olivié D, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Stolarski RS, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y, Ziemke JR. Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- L. D. Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - D. A. Plummer
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Victoria, British Columbia Canada
| | - D. W. Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - J. Austin
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - J. F. Scinocca
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Victoria, British Columbia Canada
| | - A. R. Douglass
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
| | - R. J. Salawitch
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland USA
| | - T. Canty
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland USA
| | - H. Akiyoshi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | | | - P. Braesicke
- NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
| | | | | | | | - S. Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - V. Eyring
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre; Oberpfaffenhofen Germany
| | - S. Frith
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Lanham Maryland USA
| | | | | | | | - E. Mancini
- Dipartimento di Fisica; University of L'Aquila; L'Aquila Italy
| | | | - M. Michou
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS; Toulouse France
| | - O. Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research; Lauder New Zealand
| | - T. Nakamura
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | - J. E. Nielsen
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Lanham Maryland USA
| | - D. Olivié
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS; Toulouse France
| | - G. Pitari
- Dipartimento di Fisica; University of L'Aquila; L'Aquila Italy
| | - J. Pyle
- NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
| | - E. Rozanov
- Physical-Meteorological Observatory Davos, World Radiation Center; Davos Switzerland
- IAC, ETHZ; Zurich Switzerland
| | - T. G. Shepherd
- Department of Physics; University of Toronto; Toronto, Ontario Canada
| | - K. Shibata
- Meteorological Research Institute; Japan Meteorological Agency; Tsukuba Japan
| | - R. S. Stolarski
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | | | - W. Tian
- School of Earth and Environment; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - Y. Yamashita
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | - J. R. Ziemke
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center; University of Maryland, Baltimore County; Catonsville Maryland USA
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Austin J, Struthers H, Scinocca J, Plummer DA, Akiyoshi H, Baumgaertner AJG, Bekki S, Bodeker GE, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Kubin A, Lamarque JF, Langematz U, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Yamashita Y. Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Scinocca J, Plummer D, Oman L, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Frith S, Garcia RR, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Kinnison D, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Pawson S, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Teyssèdre H, Wilson RJ, Yamashita Y. Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Hegglin MI, Gettelman A, Hoor P, Krichevsky R, Manney GL, Pan LL, Son SW, Stiller G, Tilmes S, Walker KA, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Añel JA, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Gettelman A, Hegglin MI, Son SW, Kim J, Fujiwara M, Birner T, Kremser S, Rex M, Añel JA, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Braesike P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Garny H, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca J, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W. Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Son SW, Gerber EP, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Gillett NP, Seo KH, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Garcia R, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Morgenstern O, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 248] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Morgenstern O, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Garcia RR, Gettelman A, Gillett NP, Hardiman SC, Jumelet J, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Lott F, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Peter T, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Saint-Martin D, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Sigmond M, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Voldoire A, Yamashita Y. Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Tourpali K, Rozanov E, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Bodeker G, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Deushi M, Fomichev VI, Giorgetta MA, Gray L, Kodera K, Lott F, Manzini E, Marsh D, Matthes K, Nagashima T, Shibata K, Stolarski RS, Struthers H, Tian W. Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in ozone and temperature. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 127] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Eyring V, Waugh DW, Bodeker GE, Cordero E, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Beagley SR, Boville BA, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Dameris M, Deckert R, Deushi M, Frith SM, Garcia RR, Gettelman A, Giorgetta MA, Kinnison DE, Mancini E, Manzini E, Marsh DR, Matthes S, Nagashima T, Newman PA, Nielsen JE, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Rozanov E, Schraner M, Scinocca JF, Semeniuk K, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Steil B, Stolarski RS, Tian W, Yoshiki M. Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2007. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd008332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 283] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Eyring V, Butchart N, Waugh DW, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Bodeker GE, Boville BA, Brühl C, Chipperfield MP, Cordero E, Dameris M, Deushi M, Fioletov VE, Frith SM, Garcia RR, Gettelman A, Giorgetta MA, Grewe V, Jourdain L, Kinnison DE, Mancini E, Manzini E, Marchand M, Marsh DR, Nagashima T, Newman PA, Nielsen JE, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Rozanov E, Schraner M, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Stolarski RS, Struthers H, Tian W, Yoshiki M. Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2006. [DOI: 10.1029/2006jd007327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 385] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Butchart N, Scaife AA. Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate. Nature 2001; 410:799-802. [PMID: 11298444 DOI: 10.1038/35071047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 228] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), along with bromine compounds, have been unequivocally identified as being responsible for most of the anthropogenic destruction of stratospheric ozone. With curbs on emissions of these substances, the recovery of the ozone layer will depend on their removal from the atmosphere. As CFCs have no significant tropospheric removal process, but are rapidly photolysed above the lower stratosphere, the timescale for their removal is set mainly by the rate at which air is transported from the troposphere into the stratosphere. Using a global climate model we predict that, in response to the projected changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations during the first half of the twenty-first century, this rate of mass exchange will increase by 3% per decade. This increase is due to more vigorous extra-tropical planetary waves emanating from the troposphere. We estimate that this increase in mass exchange will accelerate the removal of CFCs to an extent that recovery to levels currently predicted for 2050 and 2080 will occur 5 and 10 years earlier, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Butchart
- The Met Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, UK.
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