On the role of financial support programs in mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 spread in Brazil

BACKGROUND

During 2020, there were no effective treatments or vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. The most common disease contention measures were social distance (social isolation), the use of face masks and lockdowns. In the beginning, numerous countries have succeeded to control and reduce COVID-19 infections at a high economic cost. Thus, to alleviate such side effects, many countries have implemented socioeconomic programs to fund individuals that lost their jobs and to help endangered businesses to survive.

METHODS

We assess the role of a socioeconomic program, so-called "Auxilio Emergencial" (AE), during 2020 as a measure to mitigate the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Brazil. For each Brazilian State, we estimate the time-dependent reproduction number from daily reports of COVID-19 infections and deaths using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-like (SEIR-like) model. Then, we analyse the correlations between the reproduction number, the amount of individuals receiving governmental aid, and the index of social isolation based on mobile phone information.

RESULTS

We observed significant positive correlation values between the average values by the AE and median values of an index accounting for individual mobility. We also observed significantly negative correlation values between the reproduction number and this index on individual mobility. Using the simulations of a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-like model, if the AE was not operational during the first wave of COVID-19 infections, the accumulated number of infections and deaths could be 6.5 (90% CI: 1.3-21) and 7.9 (90% CI: 1.5-23) times higher, respectively, in comparison with the actual implementation of AE.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the AE implemented in Brazil had a significant influence on social isolation by allowing those in need to stay at home, which would reduce the expected numbers of infections and deaths.

A singularly perturbed HIV model with treatment and antigenic variation

We study the long term dynamics and the multiscale aspects of a within-host HIV model that takes into account both mutation and treatment with enzyme inhibitors. This model generalizes a number of other models that have been extensively used to describe the HIV dynamics. Since the free virus dynamics occur on a much faster time-scale than cell dynamics, the model has two intrinsic time scales and should be viewed as a singularly perturbed system. Using Tikhonov's theorem we prove that the model can be approximated by a lower dimensional nonlinear model. Furthermore, we show that this reduced system is globally asymptotically stable by using Lyapunov's stability theory.

Effects of stress on psychophysiological parameters of electricity distribution network controllers in Ukraine

The purpose was to reveal the effects of stress on the parameters of cognitive performance and cardiovascular system activities in controllers working 12-hour shifts. Sixteen controllers were studied, and altogether 384 subject observations were acquired. A 5-point scale was used to estimate the perceived level of stress experienced by the controllers. Increased heart rate and heart activity-related haemodynamic parameters were found with an increase in perceived stress. Decreases found in heart rate, circulatory minute volume, and Kerdo's vegetative index over the shift became less pronounced with increased stress. Better attention was found under the average level of stress that was found on the first day shift. An effect of stress on short-term memory was not revealed. As a whole, the most pronounced changes were found during the first day shift and less pronounced changes appeared during the first night shift. Effects of stress were not found in changes of the studied parameters during the second consecutive day or night shift. Thus, increased stress causes the activation of some psychophysiological functions (attention and cardiac activity) that are indispensable for high work efficiency under increased production demands. However, the necessary activation could not be maintained during the second consecutive 12-hour shifts, probably because of accumulated fatigue, and also night work. On the other hand, too high stress may lead to the excessive activation of cardiac activity and deterioration of attention.