Uncertainty quantification patterns for multiscale models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a key component when using computational models that involve uncertainties, e.g. in decision-making scenarios. In this work, we present uncertainty quantification patterns (UQPs) that are designed to support the analysis of uncertainty in coupled multi-scale and multi-domain applications. UQPs provide the basic building blocks to create tailored UQ for multiscale models. The UQPs are implemented as generic templates, which can then be customized and aggregated to create a dedicated UQ procedure for multiscale applications. We present the implementation of the UQPs with multiscale coupling toolkit Multiscale Coupling Library and Environment 3. Potential speed-up for UQPs has been derived as well. As a proof of concept, two examples of multiscale applications using UQPs are presented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Reliability and reproducibility in computational science: implementing verification, validation and uncertainty quantification in silico'.

Towards validated multiscale simulations for fusion

Harnessing energy produced by thermonuclear fusion reactions has the potential to provide a clean and inexpensive source of energy to Earth. However, throughout the past seven decades, physicists learned that creating our very own fusion energy source is very difficult to achieve. We constructed a component-based, multiscale fusion workflow to model fusion plasma inside the core of a tokamak device. To ensure the simulation results agree with experimental values, the model needs to undergo the process of verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ). This paper will go over the VVUQ work carried out in the multiscale fusion workflow (MFW), with the help of the EasyVVUQ software library developed by the VECMA project. In particular, similarity of distributions from simulation and experiment is explored as a validation metric. Such initial validation measures provide insights into the accuracy of the simulation results. This article is part of the theme issue 'Reliability and reproducibility in computational science: implementing verification, validation and uncertainty quantification in silico'.

Application of the extreme scaling computing pattern on multiscale fusion plasma modelling

The extreme scaling pattern of the ComPat project is applied to a multi-scale workflow relevant to the magnetically confined fusion problem. This workflow combines transport, turbulence and equilibrium codes (together with additional auxiliaries such as initial conditions and numerical module), which aims at calculating the behaviour of a fusion plasma on long (transport) time scales based on information from much faster (turbulence) time scales. Initial findings of profile measurements are reported in this paper and indicate that, depending on the chosen performance metric for defining 'cost', such as time to completion, efficiency and total energy consumption of the mutliscale workflow, different choices on the number of cores would be made when determining the optimal execution configuration. A variant of the workflow which increases the inherent parallelism is presented, and shown to produce equivalent results at (typically) lower cost compared with the original workflow. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'.