A scoring system for predicting malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter EUROPEAN validation

PURPOSE

A preoperative estimate of the risk of malignancy for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) is important. The present study carries out an external validation of the Shin score in a European multicenter cohort.

METHODS

An observational multicenter European study from 2010 to 2015. All consecutive patients undergoing surgery for IPMN at 35 hospitals with histological-confirmed IPMN were included.

RESULTS

A total of 567 patients were included. The score was significantly associated with the presence of malignancy (p < 0.001). In all, 64% of the patients with benign IPMN had a Shin score < 3 and 57% of those with a diagnosis of malignancy had a score ≥ 3. The relative risk (RR) with a Shin score of 3 was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.07-1.77), with a sensitivity of 57.1% and specificity of 64.4%.

CONCLUSION

Patients with a Shin score ≤ 1 should undergo surveillance, while patients with a score ≥ 4 should undergo surgery. Treatment of patients with Shin scores of 2 or 3 should be individualized because these scores cannot accurately predict malignancy of IPMNs. This score should not be the only criterion and should be applied in accordance with agreed clinical guidelines.

Reaching a consensus on the definition of "difficult" cholecystectomy among Spanish experts. A Delphi project. A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Being able to predict preoperatively the difficulty of a cholecystectomy can increase safety and improve results. However, there is a need to reach a consensus on the definition of a cholecystectomy as "difficult". The aim of this study is to achieve a national expert consensus on this issue.

METHODS

A two-round Delphi study was performed. Based on the previous literature, history of biliary pathology, preoperative clinical, analytical, and radiological data, and intraoperative findings were selected as variables of interest and rated on a Likert scale. Inter-rater agreement was defined as "unanimous" when 100% of the participants gave an item the same rating on the Likert scale; as "consensus" when ≥80% agreed; as "majority" when the agreement was ≥70%. The delta of change between the two rounds was calculated.

RESULTS

After the two rounds, the criteria that reached "consensus" were bile duct injury (96.77%), non-evident anatomy (93.55%), Mirizzi syndrome (93.55%), severe inflammation of Calot's triangle (90.32%), conversion to laparotomy (87.10%), time since last acute cholecystitis (83.87%), scleroatrophic gallbladder (80.65%) and pericholecystic abscess (80.65%).

CONCLUSION

The ability to predict difficulty in cholecystectomy offers important advantages in terms of surgical safety. As a preliminary step, the items that define a surgical procedure as difficult should be established. Standardization of the criteria can provide scores to predict difficulty both preoperatively and intraoperatively, and thus allow the comparison of groups of similar difficulty.