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Kipling R, Topp C, Bannink A, Bartley D, Blanco-Penedo I, Cortignani R, del Prado A, Dono G, Faverdin P, Graux AI, Hutchings N, Lauwers L, Özkan Gülzari Ş, Reidsma P, Rolinski S, Ruiz-Ramos M, Sandars D, Sándor R, Schönhart M, Seddaiu G, van Middelkoop J, Shrestha S, Weindl I, Eory V. To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers? Environ Model Softw 2019; 120:104492. [PMID: 31787839 PMCID: PMC6876672 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104492] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2018] [Revised: 06/10/2019] [Accepted: 07/25/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
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Affiliation(s)
- R.P. Kipling
- Aberystwyth University, Plas Gogerddan, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, SY23 3EE, UK
| | | | - A. Bannink
- Wageningen Livestock Research, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - D.J. Bartley
- Disease Control, Moredun Research Institute, Pentlands Science Park, Bush Loan, Penicuik, EH26 0PZ, UK
| | - I. Blanco-Penedo
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Clinical Sciences, SE-750 07, Uppsala, Sweden
- IRTA, Animal Welfare Subprogram, ES-17121, Monells, Girona, Spain
| | - R. Cortignani
- Department of Agricultural and Forestry scieNcEs (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Viterbo, Italy
| | - A. del Prado
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Edificio Sede Nº 1, Planta 1, Parque Científico de UPV/EHU, Barrio Sarriena s/n, 48940, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
| | - G. Dono
- Department of Agricultural and Forestry scieNcEs (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Viterbo, Italy
| | - P. Faverdin
- PEGASE, Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, Saint-Gilles, 35590, France
| | - A.-I. Graux
- PEGASE, Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, Saint-Gilles, 35590, France
| | - N.J. Hutchings
- Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Postbox 50, Tjele, 8830, Denmark
| | - L. Lauwers
- Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Merelbeke, Belgium
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Ş. Özkan Gülzari
- Wageningen Livestock Research, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, the Netherlands
- Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Biosciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, 1432 Ås, Norway
- Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, P.O. Box 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
| | - P. Reidsma
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 430, Wageningen, 6700 AK, the Netherlands
| | - S. Rolinski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - M. Ruiz-Ramos
- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, CEIGRAM-ETSIAAB, 28040, Madrid, Spain
| | - D.L. Sandars
- School of Water, Energy, and Environment (SWEE), Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire, MK43 0AL, UK
| | - R. Sándor
- Agricultural Institute, Centre for Agricultural Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Brunszvik u 2, Martonvásár, H-2462, Hungary
| | - M. Schönhart
- Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria
| | - G. Seddaiu
- Desertification Research Centre and Dept. Agricultural Sciences, Univ. Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | - J. van Middelkoop
- Wageningen Livestock Research, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | | | - I. Weindl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany
- Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB), Max-Eyth-Allee 100, 14469, Potsdam, Germany
| | - V. Eory
- SRUC, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
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