Missing outcome data management in acute stroke trials testing iv thrombolytics. Is there risk of bias?

INTRODUCTION

Missing outcome data may undermine interpretation of randomised clinical trials by weakening power and limiting apparent effect size. We assessed bias and inefficiency of two imputation methods commonly used in stroke trials evaluating the efficacy of iv thrombolysis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We searched the virtual international stroke trials archive (VISTA)-acute for ischaemic stroke patients with 90-day modified Rankin scale as an outcome, and known thrombolysis status. We excluded any with missing 30-day modified Rankin scale. We planned two analyses; first, we calculated odds ratios for outcome in thrombolysed versus not thrombolysed from imputed-only data, (a) among patients with missing modified Rankin scale 90 and (b) among matched patients with intact data (using propensity score methods and relevant covariates). Imputation approaches were last observation carried forward (LOCF) or multiple imputation. Outcome comparisons used dichotomisation and shift analysis. Thereafter, we calculated whole-population odds ratios using LOCF and multiple imputation (also through dichotomisation and shift analysis); first with the original 1.5% missing outcome data, and then artificially increasing the burden (5%; 10%; 20%; 30%).

RESULTS

We considered 9657 patients from eight of the studies included in VISTA, 3034 (31%) thrombolysed. Missing data replacement by LOCF with analysis by dichotomisation gave the highest estimate of thrombolysis influence. Imputing while increasing the burden of missing data progressively raised the odds ratios estimates, though thresholds for overestimation were 10% for LOCF; 20% for multiple imputation.Discussion: Replacing missing outcome data tended to overestimate differences of thrombolysed versus non-thrombolysed patients, but had minimal impact below a 10% burden of missing data.Conclusion: In the specific context of acute stroke trials testing iv thrombolytics, replacing missing data by carrying forward the last observation tended to overestimate treatment odds ratios more than multiple imputation.

The Association of Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Stroke in Patients on Hemodialysis: A Competing Risk Analysis

Background

Stroke is common in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) treated with hemodialysis (HD) and associated with high mortality rate. In the general population, atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke and therapeutic anticoagulation is associated with risk reduction, whereas in ESRD the relationship is less clear.

Objective

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the influence of AF on stroke rates and probability in those on HD following competing risk analyses.

Design

A national record linkage cohort study.

Setting

All renal and stroke units in Scotland, UK.

Patients

All patients with ESRD receiving HD within Scotland from 2005 to 2013 (follow-up to 2015).

Measurements

Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were linked between the Scottish Renal Registry, Scottish Stroke Care Audit, and hospital discharge data. Stroke was defined as a fatal or nonfatal event and mortality derived from national records.

Methods

Associations for stroke were determined using competing risk models: the cause-specific hazards model and the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model accounting for the competing risk of death in models of all stroke, ischemic stroke, and first-ever stroke.

Results

Of 5502 patients treated with HD with 12 348.6-year follow-up, 363 (6.6%) experienced stroke. The stroke incidence rate was 26.7 per 1000 patient-years. Multivariable regression on the cause-specific hazard for stroke demonstrated age, hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) = 1.04 (1.03-1.05); AF, HR (95% CI) = 1.88 (1.25-2.83); prior stroke, HR (95% CI) = 2.29 (1.48-3.54), and diabetes, HR (95% CI) = 1.92 (1.45-2.53); serum phosphate, HR (95% CI) = 2.15 (1.56-2.99); lower body weight, HR (95% CI) = 0.99 (0.98-1.00); lower hemoglobin, HR (95% CI) = 0.88 (0.77-0.99); and systolic blood pressure (BP), HR (95% CI) = 1.01 (1.00-1.02), to be associated with an increased stroke rate. In contrast, the subdistribution HRs obtained following Fine and Gray regression demonstrated that AF, weight, and hemoglobin were not associated with stroke risk. In both models, AF was significantly associated with nonstroke death.

Limitations

Our analyses derive from retrospective data sets and thus can only describe association not causation. Data on anticoagulant use are not available.

Conclusions

The incidence of stroke in HD patients is high. The competing risk of "prestroke" mortality affects the relationship between AF and risk of future stroke. Trial designs for interventions to reduce stroke risk in HD patients, such as anticoagulation for AF, should take account of competing risks affecting associations between risk factors and outcomes.

Renal replacement modality and stroke risk in end-stage renal disease-a national registry study

Background

The risk of stroke in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on renal replacement therapy (RRT) is up to 10-fold greater than the general population. However, whether this increased risk differs by RRT modality is unclear.

Methods

We used data contained in the Scottish Renal Registry and the Scottish Stroke Care Audit to identify stroke in all adult patients who commenced RRT for ESRD from 2005 to 2013. Incidence rate was calculated and regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with stroke. We explored the effect of RRT modality at initiation and cumulative dialysis exposure by time-dependent regression analysis, using transplant recipients as the reference group.

Results

A total of 4957 patients commenced RRT for ESRD. Median age was 64.5 years, 41.5% were female and 277 patients suffered a stroke (incidence rate was 18.6/1000 patient-years). Patients who had stroke were older, had higher blood pressure and were more likely to be female and have diabetes. On multivariable regression older age, female sex, diabetes and higher serum phosphate were associated with risk of stroke. RRT modality at initiation was not. On time-dependent analysis, haemodialysis (HD) exposure was independently associated with increased risk of stroke.

Conclusions

In patients with ESRD who initiate RRT, HD use independently increases risk of stroke compared with transplantation. Use of peritoneal dialysis did not increase risk on adjusted analysis.

Inequality in Care and Differences in Outcome Following Stroke in People With ESRD

Introduction

Stroke rate and mortality are greater in individuals with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) than in those without ESRD. We examined discrepancies in stroke care in ESRD patients and their influence on mortality.

Methods

This is a national record linkage cohort study of hospitalized stroke individuals from 2005 to 2013. Presentation, measures of care quality (admission to stroke unit, swallow assessment, antithrombotics, or thrombolysis use), and outcomes were compared in those with and without ESRD after propensity score matching (PSM). We examined the effect of being admitted to a stroke unit on survival using Kaplan-Meier and Cox survival analyses.

Results

A total of 8757 individuals with ESRD and 61,367 individuals with stroke were identified. ESRD patients (n =486) experienced stroke over 34,551.9 patient-years of follow-up; incidence rates were 25.3 (dialysis) and 4.5 (kidney transplant)/1000 patient-years. After PSM, dialysis patients were less likely to be functionally independent (61.4% vs. 77.7%; P < 0.0001) before stroke, less frequently admitted to stroke units (64.6% vs. 79.6%; P < 0.001), or to receive aspirin (75.3% vs. 83.2%; P = 0.01) than non-ESRD stroke patients. There were no significant differences in management of kidney transplantation patients. Stroke with ESRD was associated with a higher death rate during admission (dialysis 22.9% vs.14.4%, P = 0.002; transplantation: 19.6% vs. 9.3%; P = 0.034). Managing ESRD patients in a stroke unit was associated with a lower risk of death at follow-up (hazard ratio: 0.68; 95% confidence interval: 0.55-0.84).

Conclusion

Stroke incidence is high in ESRD. Individuals on dialysis are functionally more dependent before stroke and less frequently receive optimal stroke care. After a stroke, death is more likely in ESRD patients. Acute stroke unit care may be associated with lower mortality.

Dependency and health utilities in stroke: Data to inform cost-effectiveness analyses

Introduction

Health utilities (HU) assign preference weights to specific health states and are required for cost-effectiveness analyses. Existing HU for stroke inadequately reflect the spectrum of post-stroke disability. Using international stroke trial data, we calculated HU stratified by disability to improve precision in future cost-effectiveness analyses.

Materials and methods

We used European Quality of Life Score (EQ-5D-3L) data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA) to calculate HU, stratified by modified Rankin Scale scores (mRS) at 3 months. We applied published value sets to generate HU, and validated these using ordinary least squares regression, adjusting for age and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores.

Results

We included 3858 patients with acute ischemic stroke in our analysis (mean age: 67.5 ± 12.5, baseline NIHSS: 12 ± 5). We derived HU using value sets from 13 countries and observed significant international variation in HU distributions (Wilcoxon signed-rank test p < 0.0001, compared with UK values). For mRS = 0, mean HU ranged from 0.88 to 0.95; for mRS = 5, mean HU ranged from -0.48 to 0.22. OLS regression generated comparable HU (for mRS = 0, HU ranged from 0.9 to 0.95; for mRS = 5, HU ranged from -0.33 to 0.15). Patients' mRS scores at 3 months accounted for 65-71% of variation in the generated HU.

Conclusion

We have generated HU stratified by dependency level, using a common trial endpoint, and describing expected variability when applying diverse value sets to an international population. These will improve future cost-effectiveness analyses. However, care should be taken to select appropriate value sets.

Interaction of Recanalization, Intracerebral Hemorrhage, and Cerebral Edema After Intravenous Thrombolysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Both intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and brain edema have been attributed to reperfusion after intravenous thrombolysis. We explored the interaction of recanalization and core size for imaging outcomes (ICH and vasogenic brain edema).

METHODS

In patients with anterior circulation occlusion given intravenous thrombolysis <4.5 hours and imaged with computed tomographic (CT) perfusion and CT angiography, we defined volumes of core (relative delay time >2 s and relative cerebral blood flow <40%) and penumbra (relative delay time >2 s). CT and CT angiography at 24 hours were reviewed for ICH (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study [ECASS]-2 definition), early vasogenic edema (third International Stroke Trial [IST-3] criteria), and recanalization (thrombolysis in myocardial infarction 2-3). Independent effects of recanalization, core volume and potential interactions on edema, ICH and day 90 outcomes were estimated by logistic regression.

RESULTS

In 123 patients, there was a trend for recanalization to be associated with H1/2 ICH (odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [0.97-5.5]; P=0.06) but not with PH1/2 ICH (OR, 1.7 [0.33-8.8]; P=0.5), any edema, or significant brain edema (OR, 1.45 [0.4-4.9]; P=0.55). Ischemic core (>50 mL) was associated with any ICH (OR, 4.0 [1.6-9.5]; P=0.003), edema (OR, 5.4 [2-14]; P<0.01), and significant brain edema (OR, 17.4 [5.3-57]; P<0.01) but not with PH1/2 ICH (OR, 1.2 [0.23-6.5]; P=0.8), after controlling for recanalization. There was no significant interaction of recanalization and large core for any adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Large ischemic core was associated with poorer outcomes and both early vasogenic brain edema and ICH, but recanalization on 24-hour CT angiography was associated with clinically favorable outcome. There was no significant interaction of recanalization and large core volume for any outcomes. The association of hemorrhage or brain edema with post-thrombolysis reperfusion is unclear.

Derivation and Validation of a Modified Short Form of the Stroke Impact Scale

BACKGROUND

The Stroke Impact Scale (SIS) is a stroke-specific, quality of life measure recommended for research and clinical practice. Completion rates are suboptimal and could relate to test burden. We derived and validated a short form SIS (SF-SIS).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined data from the Virtual International Stroke Trial Archive, generating derivation and validation populations. We derived an SF-SIS by selecting 1 item per domain of SIS, choosing items most highly correlated with total domain score. Our validation described agreement of SF-SIS with original SIS and the SIS-16 and correlation with Barthel Index, modified Rankin Scale, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and Euro-QoL 5 dimensions visual analog scales. We assessed discriminative validity (associations between SF-SIS and factors known to influence outcome [age, physiological parameters, and comorbidity]). We assessed face validity and acceptability by sharing the SF-SIS with a focus group of stroke survivors and multidisciplinary stroke healthcare staff. From 5549 acute study patients (mean age 68.5 [SD 13] years, mean SIS 64 [SD 32]) and 332 rehabilitation patients (mean age 65.7 [SD 11] years, mean SIS 61 [SD 11]), we derived an 8-item SF-SIS that demonstrated good agreement with original SIS and good correlation with our chosen functional and quality of life measures (all ρ>0.70, P<0.0001). Significant associations were seen with our chosen predictors of stroke outcome in the acute group (P<0.0001). The focus group agreed with the choice of items for SF-SIS across 7 of 8 domains.

CONCLUSIONS

Using multiple, complementary methods, we have derived an SF-SIS and demonstrated content, convergent, and discriminant validity. This shortened SIS should allow collection of robust quality of life data with less associated test burden.

Tenecteplase versus alteplase in stroke thrombolysis: An individual patient data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background

Tenecteplase, a modified plasminogen activator with higher fibrin specificity and longer half-life, may have advantages over alteplase in acute ischemic stroke thrombolysis.

Aims

We undertook an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that compared alteplase with tenecteplase in acute stroke.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified by a MEDLINE search, and individual patient data were acquired. We compared clinical outcomes including modified Rankin Scale at three months, early neurological improvement at 24 h, intracerebral hemorrhage, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and mortality at three months between all dose tiers of tenecteplase and alteplase.

Results

Three relevant studies (Haley et al., Parsons et al., and ATTEST) included 291 patients and investigated three doses of tenecteplase (0.1, 0.25, 0.4 mg/kg). There were no differences between any dose of tenecteplase and alteplase for either efficacy or safety end points. Tenecteplase 0.25 mg/kg had the greatest odds to achieve early neurological improvement (OR [95%CI] 3.3 [1.5, 7.2], p = 0.093), excellent functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0–1) at three months (OR [95%CI] 1.9 [0.8, 4.4], p = 0.28), with reduced odds of intracerebral hemorrhage (OR [95%CI] 0.6 [0.2, 1.8], P = 0.43) compared with alteplase. Only 19 patients were treated with tenecteplase 0.4 mg/kg, which showed increased odds of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage compared with alteplase (OR [95% CI] 6.2 [0.7, 56.3]).

Conclusions

While no significant differences between tenecteplase and alteplase were found, point estimates suggest potentially greater efficacy of 0.25 and 0.1 mg/kg doses with no difference in symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and potentially higher symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage risk with the 0.4 mg/kg dose. Further investigation of 0.25 mg/kg tenecteplase is warranted.

Coagulation and Fibrinolytic Activity of Tenecteplase and Alteplase in Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We compared the fibrinolytic activity of tenecteplase and alteplase in patients with acute ischemic stroke, and explored the association between hypofibrinogenaemia and intracerebral hemorrhage.

METHODS

Venous blood samples from a subgroup of participants in the Alteplase-Tenecteplase Trial Evaluation for Stroke Thrombolysis (ATTEST) study were obtained at pretreatment, 3 to 12 hours, and 24±3 hours post-intravenous thrombolysis for analyses of plasminogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, d-dimer, factor V, fibrinogen, and fibrin(ogen) degradation products, in addition to routine coagulation assays. Related sample Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to test the within-group changes, and independent Mann-Whitney tests for between-group differences.

RESULTS

Thirty patients were included (alteplase=14 and tenecteplase=16) with similar baseline demographics. Compared with baseline, alteplase caused significant hypofibrinogenaemia (P=0.002), prolonged prothrombin time (P=0.011), hypoplasminogenaemia (P=0.001), and lower factor V (P=0.002) at 3 to 12 hours after administration with persistent hypofibrinogenaemia at 24 hours (P=0.011), whereas only minor hypoplasminogenaemia (P=0.029) was seen in the tenecteplase group. Tenecteplase consumed less plasminogen (P<0.001) and fibrinogen (P=0.002) compared with alteplase.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with acute ischemic stroke, alteplase 0.9 mg/kg caused significant disruption of the fibrinolytic system, whereas tenecteplase 0.25 mg/kg did not, consistent with the trend toward lower intracerebral hemorrhage incidence with tenecteplase in the ATTEST study.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01472926.