Predictive modeling of the COVID-19 data using a new version of the flexible Weibull model and machine learning techniques

Statistical modeling and forecasting of time-to-events data are crucial in every applied sector. For the modeling and forecasting of such data sets, several statistical methods have been introduced and implemented. This paper has two aims, i.e., (i) statistical modeling and (ii) forecasting. For modeling time-to-events data, we introduce a new statistical model by combining the flexible Weibull model with the Z-family approach. The new model is called the Z flexible Weibull extension (Z-FWE) model, where the characterizations of the Z-FWE model are obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators of the Z-FWE distribution are obtained. The evaluation of the estimators of the Z-FWE model is assessed in a simulation study. The Z-FWE distribution is applied to analyze the mortality rate of COVID-19 patients. Finally, for forecasting the COVID-19 data set, we use machine learning (ML) techniques i.e., artificial neural network (ANN) and group method of data handling (GMDH) with the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Based on our findings, it is observed that ML techniques are more robust in terms of forecasting than the ARIMA model.

Modeling and Forecasting Monkeypox Cases Using Stochastic Models

BACKGROUND

Monkeypox virus is gaining attention due to its severity and spread among people. This study sheds light on the modeling and forecasting of new monkeypox cases. Knowledge about the future situation of the virus using a more accurate time series and stochastic models is required for future actions and plans to cope with the challenge.

METHODS

We conduct a side-by-side comparison of the machine learning approach with the traditional time series model. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP), a machine learning technique, and the Box-Jenkins methodology, also known as the ARIMA model, are used for classical modeling. Both methods are applied to the Monkeypox cumulative data set and compared using different model selection criteria such as root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error.

RESULTS

With a root mean square error of 150.78, the monkeypox series follows the ARIMA (7,1,7) model among the other potential models. Comparatively, we use the multilayer perceptron (MLP) model, which employs the sigmoid activation function and has a different number of hidden neurons in a single hidden layer. The root mean square error of the MLP model, which uses a single input and ten hidden neurons, is 54.40, significantly lower than that of the ARIMA model. The actual confirmed cases versus estimated or fitted plots also demonstrate that the multilayer perceptron model has a better fit for the monkeypox data than the ARIMA model.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION

When it comes to predicting monkeypox, the machine learning method outperforms the traditional time series. A better match can be achieved in future studies by applying the extreme learning machine model (ELM), support vector machine (SVM), and some other methods with various activation functions. It is thus concluded that the selected data provide a real picture of the virus. If the situations remain the same, governments and other stockholders should ensure the follow-up of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) among the masses, as the trends will continue rising in the upcoming 10 days. However, governments should take some serious interventions to cope with the virus.

LIMITATION

In the ARIMA models selected for forecasting, we did not incorporate the effect of covariates such as the effect of net migration of monkeypox virus patients, government interventions, etc.

The Truncated Burr X-G Family of Distributions: Properties and Applications to Actuarial and Financial Data

In this article, the "truncated-composed" scheme was applied to the Burr X distribution to motivate a new family of univariate continuous-type distributions, called the truncated Burr X generated family. It is mathematically simple and provides more modeling freedom for any parental distribution. Additional functionality is conferred on the probability density and hazard rate functions, improving their peak, asymmetry, tail, and flatness levels. These characteristics are represented analytically and graphically with three special distributions of the family derived from the exponential, Rayleigh, and Lindley distributions. Subsequently, we conducted asymptotic, first-order stochastic dominance, series expansion, Tsallis entropy, and moment studies. Useful risk measures were also investigated. The remainder of the study was devoted to the statistical use of the associated models. In particular, we developed an adapted maximum likelihood methodology aiming to efficiently estimate the model parameters. The special distribution extending the exponential distribution was applied as a statistical model to fit two sets of actuarial and financial data. It performed better than a wide variety of selected competing non-nested models. Numerical applications for risk measures are also given.

Discrimination of sunflower seeds using multispectral and texture dataset in combination with region selection and supervised classification methods

The purpose of this study is to discriminate sunflower seeds with the help of a dataset having spectral and textural features. The production of crop based on seed purity and quality other hand sunflower seed used for oil content worldwide. In this regard, the foundation of a dataset categorizes sunflower seed varieties (Syngenta CG, HS360, S278, HS30, Armani, and High Sun 33), which were acquired from the agricultural farms of The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan, into six classes. For preprocessing, a new region-oriented seed-based segmentation was deployed for the automatic selection of regions and extraction of 53 multi-features from each region, while 11 optimized fused multi-features were selected using the chi-square feature selection technique. For discrimination, four supervised classifiers, namely, deep learning J4, support vector machine, random committee, and Bayes net, were employed to optimize the multi-feature dataset. We observe very promising accuracies of 98.2%, 97.5%, 96.6%, and 94.8%, respectively, when the size of a region is (180 × 180).

Truncated Inverted Kumaraswamy Generated Family of Distributions with Applications

In this article, we introduce a new general family of distributions derived to the truncated inverted Kumaraswamy distribution (on the unit interval), called the truncated inverted Kumaraswamy generated family. Among its qualities, it is characterized with tractable functions, has the ability to enhance the flexibility of a given distribution, and demonstrates nice statistical properties, including competitive fits for various kinds of data. A particular focus is given on a special member of the family defined with the exponential distribution as baseline, offering a new three-parameter lifetime distribution. This new distribution has the advantage of having a hazard rate function allowing monotonically increasing, decreasing, and upside-down bathtub shapes. In full generality, important properties of the new family are determined, with an emphasis on the entropy (Rényi and Shannon entropy). The estimation of the model parameters is established by the maximum likelihood method. A numerical simulation study illustrates the nice performance of the obtained estimates. Two practical data sets are then analyzed. We thus prove the potential of the new model in terms of fitting, with favorable results in comparison to other modern parametric models of the literature.