The Climatic Impact-Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk-Relevant Climate Information

The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand-driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the "climatic impact-driver" (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as "physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions." We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co-developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

Evaluation of Salicornia bigelovii Germplasm for Food Use in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates Based on Agronomic Traits and Nutritional Composition

Climate change significantly aggravates the quality of soil and water, especially in desert regions such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt concluding in an alarming increase in salinity in the reservoirs of the natural resources. Saline farming rises as a promising solution, utilizing low-quality water and land resources to grow salt-tolerant varieties of conventional crops and halophytes. Samphire (Salicornia spp.) is among the most popular multi-purpose halophytes that are locally consumed in several countries around the world as a vegetable. Six Salicornia bigelovii genotypes (ICBA-2, ICBA-3, ICBA-4, ICBA-8, ICBA-9, ICBA-10) were evaluated for their agronomic performance and nutritional composition in Dubai in UAE and, for the first time, at the Red Sea Governorate in Egypt in the 2019-2020 season using saline groundwater for irrigation (EC_w = 26 and 6.6 dS/m, respectively). ICBA-10 performed well in both locations with high green biomass and seed yield (10.9 kgm^-2 and 116.3 gm^-2, respectively, in UAE; 7.7 kgm^-2 and 82.9 gm^-2, respectively, in Egypt). ICBA-10 was, overall, also good in ion accumulation, total amino acids and unsaturated fatty acids content in both locations for shoots and seeds. Our results indicated that a lack of a drainage system and leaching fraction, the silt loam texture and the drip irrigation system might have contributed in the gradual accumulation of salts in the soil at Mubarak Valley at the end of the experiment at a higher level than ICBA. Apart from the agronomic parameters, higher salinity levels also affected ion accumulation, the amino acids and the fatty acids content for both shoots and seeds, whereas the proximate composition was affected to a lesser extent. Our findings on the high unsaturated fatty acids content under higher salinity corroborate the nutritional value of S. bigelovii oil. Due to its euhalophyte nature, S. bigelovii is a valuable source of minerals, amino acids and antioxidants that render it the most promising salt-loving plant for food use.

Climate change and adaptive water management measures in Chtouka Aït Baha region (Morocco)

This study evaluates the effect on the availability of water resources for agriculture of expected future changes in precipitation and temperature distributions in north-western Africa. It also puts forward some locally derived adaptation strategies to climate change that can have a positive impact on water resources in the Chtouka Aït Baha region. Historical baselines of precipitation and temperature were derived using satellite data respectively from CHIRPS and CRU, while future projections of temperature and precipitation were extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment database (CORDEX). Projections were also generated for two future periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Regional climate models and satellite data outputs were evaluated by calculating their bias and RMSE against historical baseline and observed data. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, temperature in the region shows an increase by 2°C for the 2030-2049 time period, and by 4 to 5°C towards the end of the 21st century. According to the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation shows a reduction of 10 to 30% for the period 2030-2049, up to 60% for 2080-2099. Outputs from the climate change projections were used to force the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Simulation results indicate that water deficit at basin level will likely triple towards 2050 due to increase in water demand and decrease in aquifer recharge and dam storage. This alarming situation, in a country that already suffers from water insecurity, emphasizes the need for more efforts to implement climate change adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment of 38 climate change adaptation measures according to several criteria. The evaluation shows that measures affecting the management of water resources have the highest benefit-to-efforts ratio, which indicates that decision makers and stakeholders should increasingly focus their efforts on management measures.