Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021

Background

With reports of surges in COVID-19 case numbers across over 50 countries, country-level epidemiological analysis is required to inform context-appropriate response strategies for containment and mitigation of the outbreak. We aimed to compare the epidemiological features of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System data of the first and second epidemiological waves, which were between 27 February and 24 October 2020, and 25 October 2020 to 3 April 2021, respectively. Descriptive statistical measures including frequencies and percentages, test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality rates (CFRs) were compared. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were carried out in STATA V.13.

Results

There were 802 143 tests recorded during the study period (362 550 and 439 593 in the first and second waves, respectively). Of these, 66 121 (18.2%) and 91 644 (20.8%) tested positive in the first and second waves, respectively. There was a 21.3% increase in the number of tests conducted in the second wave with TPR increasing by 14.3%. CI during the first and second waves were 30.3/100 000 and 42.0/100 000 respectively. During the second wave, confirmed COVID-19 cases increased among females and people 30 years old or younger and decreased among urban residents and individuals with travel history within 14 days of sample collection (p value <0.001). Most confirmed cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis during both waves: 74.9% in the first wave; 79.7% in the second wave. CFR decreased during the second wave (0.7%) compared with the first wave (1.8%).

Conclusion

Nigeria experienced a larger but less severe second wave of COVID-19. Continued implementation of public health and social measures is needed to mitigate the resurgence of another wave.

Descriptive epidemiology of Lassa fever in Nigeria, 2012-2017

Introduction

Lassa fever, an acute viral hemorrhagic zoonotic disease is endemic in some parts of Nigeria. The disease alert and outbreak threshold are known; however, there has been a shift from the previous seasonal transmission pattern to an all year-round transmission. We described data on Lassa fever and highlighted the magnitude of the disease over a six-year period.

Methods

we conducted a secondary data analyses of Lassa fever specific surveillance data from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) records of all states in Nigeria over a six-year period (2012-2017).

Results

a total of 5974 suspected cases were reported within the study period; of these, 759 (12.7%) were confirmed by laboratory diagnosis. Highest number of cases was recorded in 2012. Edo and Ondo states in the southern region of the country were mostly affected within the study period. The seasonal trend of Lassa fever cases showed peaks within January to March, except for year 2015.

Conclusion

there was a high burden of Lassa fever in Nigeria especially in the southern part. Lassa fever transmission occurs all year-round with peaks in January and March. There is need to develop preparedness plans and define thresholds for Lassa fever epidemic.