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Fleuren LM, Dam TA, Tonutti M, de Bruin DP, Lalisang RCA, Gommers D, Cremer OL, Bosman RJ, Rigter S, Wils EJ, Frenzel T, Dongelmans DA, de Jong R, Peters M, Kamps MJA, Ramnarain D, Nowitzky R, Nooteboom FGCA, de Ruijter W, Urlings-Strop LC, Smit EGM, Mehagnoul-Schipper DJ, Dormans T, de Jager CPC, Hendriks SHA, Achterberg S, Oostdijk E, Reidinga AC, Festen-Spanjer B, Brunnekreef GB, Cornet AD, van den Tempel W, Boelens AD, Koetsier P, Lens J, Faber HJ, Karakus A, Entjes R, de Jong P, Rettig TCD, Arbous S, Vonk SJJ, Fornasa M, Machado T, Houwert T, Hovenkamp H, Noorduijn Londono R, Quintarelli D, Scholtemeijer MG, de Beer AA, Cinà G, Kantorik A, de Ruijter T, Herter WE, Beudel M, Girbes ARJ, Hoogendoorn M, Thoral PJ, Elbers PWG. Predictors for extubation failure in COVID-19 patients using a machine learning approach. Crit Care 2021; 25:448. [PMID: 34961537 PMCID: PMC8711075 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-021-03864-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Determining the optimal timing for extubation can be challenging in the intensive care. In this study, we aim to identify predictors for extubation failure in critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS We used highly granular data from 3464 adult critically ill COVID patients in the multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, including demographics, clinical observations, medications, fluid balance, laboratory values, vital signs, and data from life support devices. All intubated patients with at least one extubation attempt were eligible for analysis. Transferred patients, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at the time of data extraction were excluded. Potential predictors were selected by a team of intensive care physicians. The primary and secondary outcomes were extubation without reintubation or death within the next 7 days and within 48 h, respectively. We trained and validated multiple machine learning algorithms using fivefold nested cross-validation. Predictor importance was estimated using Shapley additive explanations, while cutoff values for the relative probability of failed extubation were estimated through partial dependence plots. RESULTS A total of 883 patients were included in the model derivation. The reintubation rate was 13.4% within 48 h and 18.9% at day 7, with a mortality rate of 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. The grandient-boost model performed best (area under the curve of 0.70) and was used to calculate predictor importance. Ventilatory characteristics and settings were the most important predictors. More specifically, a controlled mode duration longer than 4 days, a last fraction of inspired oxygen higher than 35%, a mean tidal volume per kg ideal body weight above 8 ml/kg in the day before extubation, and a shorter duration in assisted mode (< 2 days) compared to their median values. Additionally, a higher C-reactive protein and leukocyte count, a lower thrombocyte count, a lower Glasgow coma scale and a lower body mass index compared to their medians were associated with extubation failure. CONCLUSION The most important predictors for extubation failure in critically ill COVID-19 patients include ventilatory settings, inflammatory parameters, neurological status, and body mass index. These predictors should therefore be routinely captured in electronic health records.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas M. Fleuren
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Tariq A. Dam
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | | | | | - Diederik Gommers
- Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Olaf L. Cremer
- Department of Intensive Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Sander Rigter
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, St. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
| | - Evert-Jan Wils
- Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis and Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Tim Frenzel
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Dave A. Dongelmans
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Remko de Jong
- Intensive Care, Bovenij Ziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marco Peters
- Intensive Care, Canisius Wilhelmina Ziekenhuis, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | | | | | - Ralph Nowitzky
- Intensive Care, HagaZiekenhuis, Den Haag, The Netherlands
| | | | - Wouter de Ruijter
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, The Netherlands
| | | | - Ellen G. M. Smit
- Intensive Care, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem en Hoofddorp, The Netherlands
| | | | - Tom Dormans
- Intensive Care, Zuyderland MC, Heerlen, The Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gert B. Brunnekreef
- Department of Intensive Care, Ziekenhuisgroep Twente, Almelo, The Netherlands
| | - Alexander D. Cornet
- Department of Intensive Care, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
| | - Walter van den Tempel
- Department of Intensive Care, Ikazia Ziekenhuis Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Peter Koetsier
- Intensive Care, Medisch Centrum Leeuwarden, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands
| | - Judith Lens
- ICU, IJsselland Ziekenhuis, Capelle Aan Den IJssel, The Netherlands
| | | | - A. Karakus
- Department of Intensive Care, Diakonessenhuis Hospital, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Entjes
- Department of Intensive Care, Adrz, Goes, The Netherlands
| | - Paul de Jong
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, Slingeland Ziekenhuis, Doetinchem, The Netherlands
| | - Thijs C. D. Rettig
- Department of Anesthesiology, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Amphia Ziekenhuis, Breda, The Netherlands
| | - Sesmu Arbous
- Department of Intensive Care, LUMC, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Martijn Beudel
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam UMC, Universiteit Van Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Armand R. J. Girbes
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Mark Hoogendoorn
- Quantitative Data Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Patrick J. Thoral
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Paul W. G. Elbers
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Laboratory for Critical Care Computational Intelligence, Amsterdam Medical Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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