Retrospective longitudinal analysis of low-level viremia among HIV-1 infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Kenya

Background

HIV low-level viremia (LLV) (51-999 copies/mL) can progress to treatment failure and increase potential for drug resistance. We analyzed retrospective longitudinal data from people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Kenya to understand LLV prevalence and virologic outcomes.

Methods

We calculated rates of virologic suppression (≤50 copies/mL), LLV (51-999 copies/mL), virologic non-suppression (≥1000 copies/mL), and virologic failure (≥2 consecutive virologic non-suppression results) among PLHIV aged 15 years and older who received at least 24 weeks of ART during 2015-2021. We analyzed risk for virologic non-suppression and virologic failure using time-dependent models (each viral load (VL) <1000 copies/mL used to predict the next VL).

Findings

Of 793,902 patients with at least one VL, 18.5% had LLV (51-199 cp/mL 11.1%; 200-399 cp/mL 4.0%; and 400-999 cp/mL 3.4%) and 9.2% had virologic non-suppression at initial result. Among all VLs performed, 26.4% were LLV. Among patients with initial LLV, 13.3% and 2.4% progressed to virologic non-suppression and virologic failure, respectively. Compared to virologic suppression (≤50 copies/mL), LLV was associated with increased risk of virologic non-suppression (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 2.43) and virologic failure (aRR 3.86). Risk of virologic failure increased with LLV range (aRR 2.17 with 51-199 copies/mL, aRR 3.98 with 200-399 copies/mL and aRR 7.99 with 400-999 copies/mL). Compared to patients who never received dolutegravir (DTG), patients who initiated DTG had lower risk of virologic non-suppression (aRR 0.60) and virologic failure (aRR 0.51); similarly, patients who transitioned to DTG had lower risk of virologic non-suppression (aRR 0.58) and virologic failure (aRR 0.35) for the same LLV range.

Interpretation

Approximately a quarter of patients experienced LLV and had increased risk of virologic non-suppression and failure. Lowering the threshold to define virologic suppression from <1000 to <50 copies/mL to allow for earlier interventions along with universal uptake of DTG may improve individual and program outcomes and progress towards achieving HIV epidemic control.

Funding

No specific funding was received for the analysis. HIV program support was provided by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

PEPFAR's Role in Protecting and Leveraging HIV Services in the COVID-19 Response in Africa

Purpose of Review

We describe the impact of COVID-19 on PEPFAR programs in Africa and how PEPFAR adapted and leveraged its interventions to the changing landscape of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recent Findings

To mitigate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the HIV response and protect the gains, continuity of treatment was the guiding principle regarding the provision of services in PEPFAR-supported countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic matured, PEPFAR’s approach evolved from a strictly “protect and salvage” approach to a “restore and accelerate” approach that embraced innovative adaptations in service and “person-centered” care.

Summary

The impact of service delivery interruptions caused by COVID-19 on progress towards HIV epidemic control in PEPFAR-supported African countries remains undetermined. With COVID vaccine coverage many months away and more transmissible variants being reported, Africa may experience more pandemic surges. HIV programs will depend on nimble and innovative adaptations in prevention and treatment services in order to advance epidemic control objectives.