Simple Preoperative Imaging Measurements Predict Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a potentially devastating complication after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). The purpose of this study was to identify features on preoperative computed tomography (CT) imaging that correlate with an increased risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

METHODS

Patients who underwent PD at our high-volume pancreatic surgery center from 2019 to 2021 were included if CT imaging was available within 8 weeks of surgical intervention. Pancreatic neck thickness (PNT), abdominal wall thickness (AWT), and intra-abdominal distance from pancreas to peritoneum (PTP) were measured by two board-certified radiologists who were blinded to the clinical outcomes. Radiographic measurements, as well as preoperative patient characteristics and intraoperative data, were assessed with univariate and multivariable analysis (MVA) to determine risk for clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF, grades B and C).

RESULTS

A total of 204 patients met inclusion criteria. Median PTP was 5.8 cm, AWT 1.9 cm, and PNT 1.3 cm. CR-POPF occurred in 33 of 204 (16.2%) patients. MVA revealed PTP > 5.8 cm (odds ratio [OR] 2.86, p = 0.023), PNT > 1.3 cm (OR 2.43, p = 0.047), soft pancreas consistency (OR 3.47, p = 0.012), and pancreatic duct size ≤ 3.0 mm (OR 4.55, p = 0.01) as independent risk factors for CR-POPF after PD. AWT and obesity were not associated with increased risk of CR-POPF. Patients with PTP > 5.8 cm or PNT > 1.3 cm were significantly more likely to suffer a major complication after PD (39.6% vs. 22.3% and 40% vs. 22.1%, p < 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a thick pancreatic neck and increased intra-abdominal girth have a heightened risk of CR-POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy, and they experience more serious postoperative complications. We defined a simple CT scan-based measurement tool to identify patients at increased risk of CR-POPF.

Intramedullary Spinal Cord Tumors: Whole-Genome Sequencing to Assist Management and Prognosis

Intramedullary spinal cord tumors (IMSCTs) harbor unique genetic mutations which may play a role in prognostication and management. To this end, we present the largest cohort of IMSCTs with genetic characterization in the literature from our multi-site institutional registry. A total of 93 IMSCT patient records were reviewed from the years 1999 to 2020. Out of these, 61 complied with all inclusion criteria, 14 of these patients had undergone genetic studies with 8 undergoing whole-genomic sequencing. Univariate analyses were used to assess any factors associated with progression-free survival (PFS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. Firth's penalized likelihood approach was used to account for the low event rates. Fisher's exact test was performed to compare whole-genome analyses and specific gene mutations with progression. PFS (months) was given as a hazard ratio. Only the absence of copy neutral loss of heterozygosity (LOH) was shown to be significant (0.05, p = 0.008). Additionally, higher risk of recurrence/progression was associated with LOH (p = 0.0179). Our results suggest LOH as a genetic predictor of shorter progression-free survival, particularly within ependymoma and glioblastoma tumor types. Further genomic research with larger multi-institutional datasets should focus on these mutations as possible prognostic factors.

Identifying the optimal treatment strategy in patients with resectable non-cardia gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Multimodal treatment strategy including perioperative chemotherapy (PEC), postoperative chemoradiation therapy (POCR), and postoperative chemotherapy (POC) has been accepted as the standard of care in gastric cancer (GC). The ideal sequence and type of therapy remain undetermined.

METHOD

The National Cancer Database was examined from 2006 to 2016 to identify patients with resectable non-cardia gastric cancer. Patient outcomes were compared based on the receipt of PEC, POCR, and POC. This comparison was repeated in a sub-group of patients who received optimal treatment. Optimal treatment was defined as initial chemotherapy within 45 days of diagnosis, resection within 45 days of diagnosis, negative margins, adjuvant chemotherapy within 90 days of resection and standard radiation dose (45 Gy). Kaplan-Meier test, log-rank test, and multivariable analysis (MVA) were performed.

RESULTS

We identified 9589 patients. Median survival was greater in the PEC group followed by POCR and POC (60.6, 42.3, and 31.2 months, respectively). On MVA, factors associated with worse overall survival included age above median (≥ 63 years), Charlson-Deyo score of ≥ 1, non-academic/research program, poorly differentiated/undifferentiated grade, positive margins, and positive lymph nodes. Both PEC and POCR were associated with improved survival when compared to POC (HR 0.78 and 0.79; p < 0.001). When compared with PEC, no significant difference was noted with POCR (HR 1.01; p = 0.987). These results were maintained in optimally treated cohort (n = 3418).

CONCLUSION

In patients with resectable non-cardia gastric cancer, both perioperative chemotherapy and postoperative chemoradiation therapy were associated with improved survival when compared to postoperative chemotherapy. No difference was noted between perioperative chemotherapy and postoperative chemoradiation therapy. These results were maintained in the optimally treated cohort.

Immune-Related Adverse Events and Clinical Outcomes in Advanced Urothelial Cancer Patients Treated With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

BACKGROUND

In advanced urothelial cancers (UC), immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) show promise as a durable therapy. Immune-related adverse events (irAEs), a side effect of ICIs, may serve as an indicator of beneficial response. We investigated the relationship between irAEs and clinical outcomes in patients with advanced UC who received ICI.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, we investigated 70 patients with advanced UC treated with ICIs at Winship Cancer Institute from 2015 to 2020. Data on patients were collected through chart review. Cox's proportional hazard model and logistic regression were applied to estimate the association with overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and clinical benefit (CB). The possible lead-time bias was handled in extended Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The median age of the cohort was 68. Over one-third (35%) of patients experienced an irAE, with skin being the most frequent organ involved (12.9%). Patients that experienced at least one irAE had significantly enhanced OS (HR: 0.38, 95% CI, 0.18-0.79, P = .009), PFS (HR: 0.27, 95% CI, 0.14-0.53, P < .001), and CB (OR: 4.20, 95% CI, 1.35-13.06, P = .013). Patients who experienced dermatologic irAEs also had significantly greater OS, PFS, and CB.

CONCLUSION

Of patients with advanced UC that had undergone ICI therapy, those who had irAEs, especially dermatologic irAEs, had significantly greater OS, PFS, and CB. These results may suggest that irAE's may serve as an important marker of durable response to ICI therapy in urothelial cancer. The findings of this study need to be validated with larger cohort studies in the future.

Early Bone Mineral Density Changes and Endocrinal Dysfunction in Childhood Brain Tumor Patients: A Prospective Study

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and hormonal dysfunction are considered as a late effect of cranial radiation (RT). Only few studies have reported the occurrence of these problems soon after the diagnosis of brain tumor or RT initiation, emphasizing that these are not necessarily the late effects of RT. Thus, we conducted the study to analyze the incidence of low BMD and hormonal dysfunction prior to or within 6 months of RT (early change) in children with brain tumors.

MATERIALS/METHODS

The study was conducted as a part of intramural funding program at a tertiary care center in India. Childhood and adolescent brain tumor patients were advised for dual energy X-ray absorptiometry scan (DXA) and hormonal evaluation prior to RT. In some patients, first DXA was done within 6 months of RT due to logistics. To see the effect of radiation, we have planned to repeat hormonal evaluation after 6 and 12 months and DXA after 12 months of RT.

RESULTS

Twenty-five patients were analyzed. Median age at diagnosis was 11 years with a male to female ratio of 5.2:1. Medulloblastoma was the commonest diagnosis (n = 12), followed by glioma (n = 8), pineal tumors (n = 3) and ependymoma (n = 2). Nineteen and six patients underwent DXA before RT and within 6 months of RT respectively. For BMD assessment, Z score was calculated at hip and lumbar spine. BMD was defined as low (Z score = -1 to-1.99), very low (Z score = -2 to -2.5) and secondary osteoporosis (Z score ≤ -2.5). Median Z score at femur neck and spine was -2 and -1.9 respectively. Overall; 6, 3 and 9 patients had normal, low and very low BMD respectively. Seven patients had secondary osteoporosis (Table 1). Two patients with secondary osteoporosis had low vitamin D levels. None of the patient had compression fracture. On statistical analysis, no correlation was found between BMD changes and age, sex and site of the tumor. Pre RT endocrinal assessment (N = 25) was done by tanner staging and serum hormonal levels (GH, T3/T4/TSH, ACTH, cortisol and prolactin). Gonadal hormonal assessment was done in children with early or delayed puberty. Three patients were found to have endocrinal abnormality before RT (precautious puberty, central hypothyroidism and low sex hormones in 1 patient each). Follow up DXA and hormonal evaluation are awaited to see the effect of RT.

CONCLUSION

The index study is one of the very few studies evaluating the early changes in BMD and hormonal dysfunction soon after brain tumor diagnosis or within 6 months of RT. We observed that a significant proportion of children had reduced BMD and hormonal dysfunction before RT, highlighting the importance of early assessment and referral to the specialist for better quality of life. Table 1: BMD and endocrinal dysfunction before or within 6 months of RT.

Biochemical Relapse-Free Survival in Post-Prostatectomy Patients Receiving 18F-Fluciclovine-Guided Prostate Bed Only Radiation: Post-Hoc Analysis of a Prospective Randomized Trial

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Whole pelvis (WP) radiation therapy (XRT) significantly improved biochemical relapse free survival (bRFS) compared to prostate-bed (PB)-only XRT in RTOG 0534, yet increased toxicity and was performed in an era prior to PET staging (Pollack et al, Lancet, 2022). Separately, 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT (PET)-guided post-prostatectomy XRT demonstrated improved bRFS compared to XRT guided by conventional imaging alone. We hypothesized that patients whose decisions were changed from whole pelvic XRT to PB-only XRT after PET imaging would have bRFS that was (a) not significantly different than patients initially planned for PB-only XRT, and (b) significantly improved over patients planned for WP XRT without PET guidance.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We conducted a post-hoc analysis of a prospective, randomized, single-institution trial comparing conventional (Arm A) v. PET-guided (Arm B) post-prostatectomy XRT. For patients randomized to Arm B, pre-PET treatment field decisions were recorded, and post-fluciclovine fields were rigidly defined per protocol: pN0 patients with no pelvic or extrapelvic PET uptake received PB-only XRT. Three- and four-year bRFS were compared in patients initially planned for WP with change to PB-only XRT [Arm B (WP→PB)] v Arm B patients initially planned for PB-only with final XRT to PB-only [Arm B(PB→PB)] & Arm A patients treated with whole pelvic XRT [Arm A(WP)] using Z test and log-rank test. Demographics were compared using Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, or ANOVA as appropriate.

RESULTS

We identified 10 Arm B (WP→PB), 31 Arm B (PB→PB), and 25 Arm A (WP) patients. Androgen deprivation was used in 50.0% of Arm B (WP→PB) and 3.2% of Arm B (PB→PB) patients, p<0.01. Mean pre-XRT PSA was significantly higher (1.56 v 0.32 ng/mL, respectively, p<0.01) in Arm B (WP→PB) v Arm B (PB→PB) patients, however, there was no significant difference in extracapsular extension (p = 1.00), seminal vesical invasion (p = 1.00), Gleason score ≥8 (p = 0.58) or margin positivity (p = 0.73) between cohorts. Three- and four-year bRFS was 80% in Arm B (WP→PB) & 87.4% in Arm B (PB→PB), p = 0.47, respectively. Arm A (WP) patients had significantly worse three- (35.2%) and four-year (13.2%) bRFS compared to Arm B (WP→PB), p<0.01.

CONCLUSION

Patients initially planned for WP XRT whose treatment field decisions were changed to PB-only XRT after PET guidance had, in this post-hoc analysis, (a) relapse rates not significantly different than patients initially planned for PB-only XRT and (b) improved relapse rates over patients treated with WP XRT without PET guidance. PET-guided volume de-escalation in selected patients may be one approach to mitigating excess toxicity seen with WP XRT without compromising outcomes and warrants further exploration.

Association of Radiation Facility Volume with Overall Survival in Patients with Very High-Risk Prostate Cancer Treated with Radiation and Androgen Deprivation Therapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Studies suggest an association of treatment at high volume facilities with improved survival in cancer patients receiving surgery or radiation therapy. This association has not been studied in patients with very high-risk prostate cancer, who are treated using a multimodality approach that often requires specialized care with advanced diagnostic imaging, complex radiotherapeutic planning, and multidrug antiandrogen regimens. We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to study the association of radiation treatment facility volume (FV) with overall survival (OS).

MATERIALS/METHODS

We selected for patients with very high risk, localized prostate cancer by NCCN criteria (cT3b-T4, primary Gleason pattern 5, >4 cores with grade group 4-5, and/or 2-3 high risk features). We included patients who received hormone therapy with either external beam radiation to a dose of ≥60 Gy or external beam radiation to a dose of ≥45 Gy combined with brachytherapy. Association of FV with OS was evaluated through a bias-adjusted log-rank test to identify the optimal cut point of FV for dichotomization. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to study the association of binary FV with overall survival (OS) with and without IPTW (inverse probability treatment weighting) balancing the following confounders: age, race, median income, education, insurance, academic treatment facility, Charlson comorbidity score, T stage, PSA, Gleason score, total radiation dose, year of diagnosis, and patient distance from treatment facility. Cox proportional hazards model was built using backward variable selection strategy (α of 0.05 for removal).

RESULTS

We identified 25,219 very high-risk prostate cancer patients by NCCN criteria (median follow up 57.36 months; 95% CI 56.67 - 58.09) diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. High FV (n = 6,438) was associated with better OS on univariable analysis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77 - 0.86; p < 0.001) and multivariable analysis (HR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.84 - 0.95; p < 0.001). Other factors associated with improved OS on multivariable analysis included younger age, non-white/black race, higher income, private insurance, academic/research treatment facility, lower comorbidity, lower T-stage, lower PSA, and lower Gleason score. After IPTW adjustment, high FV remained associated with better OS (HR = 0.90; 95% CI 0.85 - 0.95; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with NCCN very high-risk prostate cancer treated at a radiation facility with high case volume had better OS than patients treated at a facility with low volume, after adjustment for confounders. This may suggest that for very high-risk patients, outcomes may be improved by the expertise and optimal multidisciplinary care that typically accompany high facility treatment volume.

Utility of the "All of Us" Database for Radiation Oncology Research

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

We provide an overview the All of Us Research Program, a National Institutes of Health funded research database, and report on the utility of this database for Radiation Oncology research.

MATERIALS/METHODS

The All of Us Research Program aims to create a large and diverse health database with participants from across the US. Patients consent to join the database and agree to share electronic health records, complete surveys, provide physical measurements, and donate at least one biospecimen. In this observational study, we used the public data browser feature of the All of Us Dataset to evaluate utility for future radiation oncology research. Within the database, we report on the number of cases of common cancers in the US, using ICD10 codes, and also the number of patients treated with common radiotherapy procedures, using CPT4 codes. We then qualitatively report on additional data of interest. Of note, public patient counts in All of Us is rounded to the nearest interval of 20. Additional tiers of data access exist, including individual level data, which were not used in this survey of public data.

RESULTS

The database includes 372,380 participants, of which 46,380 patients have a diagnosis of cancer. Within the identified top 10 cancers according to ACS, there were a total of 26,540 primary malignant cancers. The most common type of cancers were breast cancer (ICD10 - c50 [n = 6,960]), Prostate (ICD10 - c61 [n = 4,500]), Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (ICD10 - c85 [n = 2860]), Lung & bronchus (ICD10 - c34 [n = 2000]), Colon (ICD10 - c18 [n = 1940]), Melanoma of the skin (ICD10 - c43 [n = 1740]), Thyroid(ICD10 - c73 [n = 1720]), Kidney (ICD10 - c64 [n = 1300]), Urinary bladder (ICD10 - c67 [n = 1140]). The most common radiation therapy procedures were Computerized Tomography simulation (CPT - 77290 [n = 4,040]), Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (CPT - 77386 [n = 780]), 3D conformal radiation therapy (CPT - 77412 [n = 1,720]), Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (CPT - 77373 [n = 400]), Brachytherapy (CPT - 77770- 77772 [n = 240]), and Proton Therapy (CPT - 77520-77525 [n = 140]). Qualitatively, other data within All of Us include labs values, drug exposures, comorbidities, other procedures, physical measurements, and wearable biometrics (Fitbit) data. Genomic data typically includes germline testing using whole genome sequencing or genotyping array. Patient surveys include data on personal medical history, family health history, lifestyle, social determinants of health, COVID19 experience, and overall health. Potential outcome variables of interest to oncology research in the database include survival, cause of death, additional procedures or diagnoses after cancer treatment, and quality of life metrics derived from the survey instruments.

CONCLUSION

The All Of Us Research Database includes a large number of cancer cases, of which a substantial number received radiotherapy. Future work will focus on focused hypothesis-driven research questions.

Focal Boosted IMRT Treatment of Prostate Cancer to 84 Gy in 28 Fractions: Preliminary Clinical Outcomes and Dosimetry

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

The FLAME trial reported that focal boosting of prostate tumor to 95 Gy in 35 fractions improves biochemical control. However, this treatment is not commonly used in the United States. We investigated a focally boosted treatment of 84 Gy in 28 fractions (EQD2 108 Gy, BED 252 Gy).

MATERIALS/METHODS

Between 2019-2022, men with unfavorable intermediate risk (uIR) and high risk (HR) prostate cancer were enrolled on a prospective registry and received a novel IMRT regimen. The dose levels were 84 Gy to the gross tumor volume (GTV) as defined on mpMRI (T2W and ADC) with no added margin, 70 Gy to the prostate and proximal seminal vesicles, and optional 50.4 Gy to elective pelvic lymph nodes (all 28 fractions). Patients received fiducial markers and hydrogel spacer. The treatment planning goal was to cover 95% of the GTV at 84 Gy, and also meet the target and normal tissue dosimetry criteria of the hypofractionated treatment arm of NRG-GU005. VMAT was used for treatment delivery. ADT was given at the discretion of the treating physician.

RESULTS

A total of 20 men were included in the study, 2 (10%) uIR and 18 (90%) HR. 9 (45%) tumors were GS 7, 7 (35%) were GS 8, and 4 (20%) were GS 9. There were 13 (65%) stage cT1, 4 (20%) cT2 and 3 (15%) cT3. One (5%) patient received short term ADT, 18 (95%) long term ADT, and 1 (5%) refused ADT. 18 (90%) men received elective nodal radiation. The mean baseline PSA was 25.1 (range 4.2-73.4). The median baseline IPSS score was 11.1 (IQR 4.5-12), and 4 patients had severe baseline urinary symptoms (IPSS ≥20). The mean baseline prostate volume was 57.4 cc (range 26.8-198.3). The mean volume of the 84 Gy boost target was 7.1 cc (range 2.3-15.0) and the mean proportion of the prostate boosted was 14.8% (range 2% - 47%). There were 10 (50%) men with 1 boost target, 6 (30%) with two, 3 (15%) with three, and 1 (5%) had 4 boost targets. Targets were located in peripheral zone (85%), transition zone (30%), and central zone (5%). Patients met all per-protocol normal tissue criteria of NRG-GU005, except for bladder D0.03cc. The mean±SD (Gy) rectum D15%, D25%, and D30% were 51±5, 45±5, 42±4. The mean±SD (Gy) bladder D0.03cc, D30%, D50% were 79±4, 50±8, 38±10. At a median follow up time of 21.3 months (range 7.1-38.2), no patients have developed biochemical progression, local recurrence, distant progression, or death from prostate cancer. One patient died at 18 months from metastatic colorectal cancer, unrelated to prostate cancer treatment. Acute grade 1-2 GU toxicity occurred in 13 (65%) patients, and acute grade 1-2 GI toxicity occurred in 4 (20%) patients. No patients developed grade 3+ acute or late GU or GI toxicity. Two patients required temporary foley catheter for obstruction during RT, and both had IPSS >20 at baseline. The patient who refused ADT had a PSA bounce of magnitude 2.2 ng/mL at 14 months, PSA values declined without additional treatment.

CONCLUSION

A novel 28-fraction focal boosted IMRT treatment is feasible and has an acceptable early toxicity profile. Oncologic results are promising but require longer follow up.

Prediction of Progression After Cervix Cancer Radiotherapy Using a Machine-Learning Model on Pre-Treatment MRI

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

MRI may be useful to identify women with cervical cancer at high risk of disease progression to test strategies of treatment intensification. The purpose of this study was to determine the value of a machine-learning model built on pre-treatment MRI for prediction of risk of progression after radiation therapy.

MATERIALS/METHODS

MagneticResonance Imaging (MRI) data for women with cervical cancer was collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas Cervical Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Endocervical Adenocarcinoma Collection (TCGA-CESC) on the Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA), which reported clinical, treatment, and imaging data from a single institution. 27 patients who had received radiation for cervical cancer were selected for input into a custom 3-D Residual Neural Network (ResNet) model with added custom layers specific to DICOM data in tensorflow python package. One T2 MRI per patient was used to predict recurrence free survival after radiation treatment, where patients were predicted to be "high risk" or "low risk" for disease recurrence as the output of the model. All slices of the T2 MRI were used. The model was validated using five-fold cross validation; 80% of the data was used to train each fold and 20% was used for testing. Final model statistical significance was confirmed through shuffle test at the p < 0.01 level. The clinical outcomes of patients and the model's "low-risk" and "high-risk" prediction were compared.

RESULTS

There were 27 patients in the study with mean age of 51 years (range 29-79). 20 patients had squamous cell carcinoma and 7 patients had adenocarcinoma. The stage breakdown consisted of 9 women IB, 2 IIA, 9 IIB, 2 IIIA, 2 IIIB, and 3 stage IV. 10 women were treated with radiation alone and 17 with chemo-radiation. 5 women received surgery in addition to radiation or chemoradiation. 21 patients received brachytherapy. Median follow-up of patients was 29 months (range 3-64). The model predicted 7 patients as "high risk" for recurrence; all 7 developed a recurrence during follow up. None of the 20 patients predicted to be "low risk" developed disease recurrence. Among all patients in the study, the two-year progression free survival (PFS) was 82.0%. Patients identified as "low risk" and "high risk" by model had two-year PFS of 100% and 43%, respectively. Among patients with recurrence, 3 developed local recurrence and 4 developed distant metastases. The ResNet model achieved cross-validated accuracy of 92% for prediction of progression-free survival (p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

A 3-D ResNet machine-learning model using pretreatment MRI image data can accurately predict clinical outcomes for cervical cancer following radiation therapy. Future work to confirm generalizability should focus on validation with a larger clinical dataset.

16 Horner Syndrome: Can it be Familial? Case series in a family and review of literature

Ophthalmic literature reveals vague and rare references to Horner syndrome on a hereditary basis. We present a case series of mother and son with Horner syndrome, which was confirmed pharmacologically. They noticed symptoms on the same side at a similar age and no serious pathology was found.Retrospective case review of notes:Case 1: An 11-year-old male presented with 6 week history of anisocoria, mild right ptosis, no heterochromia and no history of trauma or previous surgeries. The anisocoria was more noticeable in the dark, Horner syndrome was confirmed with apraclonidine test.Case 2: Mother of case 1, 50-year-old female diagnosed with right Horner syndrome at the age of 14 in Austria. The presenting features were anisocoria, a lack of sweating on the right side of her face. Diagnosis was reconfirmed pharmacologically.Case 1 was referred to paediatrics for a systemic examination which was normal. He was investigated with urinary catecholamines, MRI head and CT neck and thorax which were all normal. Case 2 was investigated in the past with a normal CT head.Horner syndrome results in the interruption of the oculo-sympathetic pathway and can indicate serious pathology in the head, chest or neck. Our cases demonstrate that familial presentation could indicate an idiopathic aetiology as it is unlikely to have pathological Horner syndrome in two first degree relatives.Our case series highlights the importance of eliciting a family history of Horner syndrome and examining the family members. Positive family history can reassure patients while awaiting results of investigations.

Examining the Effect of ALK and EGFR Mutations on Survival Outcomes in Surgical Lung Brain Metastasis Patients

In the context of the post-genomic era, where targeted oncological therapies like monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are gaining prominence, this study investigates whether these therapies can enhance survival for lung carcinoma patients with specific genetic mutations-EGFR-amplified and ALK-rearranged mutations. Prior to this study, no research series had explored how these mutations influence patient survival in cases of surgical lung brain metastases (BMs). Through a multi-site retrospective analysis, the study examined patients who underwent surgical resection for BM arising from primary lung cancer at Emory University Hospital from January 2012 to May 2022. The mutational statuses were determined from brain tissue biopsies, and survival analyses were conducted. Results from 95 patients (average age: 65.8 ± 10.6) showed that while 6.3% had anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-rearranged mutations and 20.0% had epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-amplified mutations-with 9.5% receiving second-line therapies-these mutations did not significantly correlate with overall survival. Although the sample size of patients receiving targeted therapies was limited, the study highlighted improved overall survival and progression-free survival rates compared to earlier trials, suggesting advancements in systemic lung metastasis treatment. The study suggests that as more targeted therapies emerge, the prospects for increased overall survival and progression-free survival in lung brain metastasis patients will likely improve.

Independent Validation of the International Grading System for Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Single Institution Experience

Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), an uncommon C cell thyroid malignancy, accounts for a disproportionate number of thyroid cancer deaths. To predict MTC clinical behavior, the recent international MTC grading system (IMTCGS) was published combining features from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and Royal North Shore Hospital grading systems that incorporates mitotic count, necrosis, and Ki67 proliferative index (Ki67PI). The IMTCGS appears promising, but independent validation data are limited. Here, we applied the IMTCGS to our institutional MTC cohort and assessed its ability to predict clinical outcomes. Our cohort comprised 87 MTCs (30 germline and 57 sporadic). Slides for each case were reviewed by 2 pathologists and histologic features recorded. Ki67 immunostaining was performed on all cases. Each MTC was graded with the IMTCGS based on tumor necrosis, Ki67PI, and mitotic count. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the impact of various clinical and pathological data on disease outcomes, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival, disease-specific survival (DSS), and distant metastasis-free survival. In our MTC cohort, 18.4% (n = 16/87) were IMTCGS high grade. IMTCGS grade was strongly prognostic for OS, disease-free survival, DSS, and distant metastasis-free survival on univariate analysis and multivariable analysis in both the entire MTC cohort and in the sporadic subset. Among the individual IMTCGS parameters, while all 3 were associated with poorer survival outcomes on univariate analysis, necrosis had the strongest association with all survival parameters on multivariable analysis, whereas Ki67PI or mitotic count was associated only with OS and DSS. This retrospective study independently demonstrates that the IMTCGS is valid for grading MTCs. Our findings support incorporating IMTCGS into routine pathology practice. IMTCGS grading may help clinicians to better predict the prognosis of MTC. Future studies may shed light on how MTC grading should impact treatment protocols.

Radiation Facility Volume and Survival for Men With Very High-Risk Prostate Cancer Treated with Radiation and Androgen Deprivation Therapy

IMPORTANCE

Very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer is an aggressive substratum of high-risk prostate cancer, characterized by high prostate-specific antigen levels, high Gleason score, and/or advanced T category. Contemporary management paradigms involve advanced molecular imaging and multimodal treatment with intensified prostate-directed or systemic treatment-resources more readily available at high-volume centers.

OBJECTIVE

To examine radiation facility case volume and overall survival (OS) in men with VHR prostate cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study was performed from November 11, 2022, to March 4, 2023, analyzing data from US facilities reporting to the National Cancer Database. Patients included men diagnosed with nonmetastatic VHR prostate cancer by National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria (clinical T3b-T4 category, primary Gleason pattern 5, >4 cores with grade group 4-5, and/or 2-3 high-risk features) and treated with curative-intent radiotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy between January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2016.

EXPOSURES

Treatment at high- vs low-average cumulative facility volume (ACFV), defined as the total number of prostate radiotherapy cases at an individual patient's treatment facility from 2004 until the year of their diagnosis. The nonlinear association between a continuous ACFV and OS was examined through a Martingale residual plot; an optimal ACFV cutoff was identified that maximized the separation between high vs low ACFV via a bias-adjusted log rank test.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Overall survival was assessed between high vs low ACFV using Kaplan-Meier analysis with and without inverse probability score weighted adjustment and multivariable Cox proportional hazards.

RESULTS

A total of 25 219 men (median age, 71 [IQR, 64-76] years; 78.7% White) with VHR prostate cancer were identified, 6438 (25.5%) of whom were treated at high ACFV facilities. Median follow-up was 57.4 (95% CI, 56.7-58.1) months. Median OS for patients treated at high ACFV centers was 123.4 (95% CI, 116.6-127.4) months vs 109.0 (95% CI, 106.5-111.2) months at low ACFV centers (P < .001). On multivariable analysis, treatment at a high ACFV center was associated with lower risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95; P < .001). These results were also significant after inverse probability score weighted-based adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of patients with VHR prostate cancer who underwent definitive radiotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy, facility case volume was independently associated with longer OS. Further studies are needed to identify which factors unique to high-volume centers may be responsible for this benefit.

Does non-metastatic gastric cancer of the cardia warrant a different treatment strategy?

BACKGROUND

Multimodal treatment strategies with surgery as its centerpiece have been accepted as the standard of care in nonmetastatic cardia gastric cancer (CGC). There remains a lack of consensus regarding the optimal multimodal treatment strategy.

METHOD

We queried National Cancer Database from 2004 to 2016 to identify patients with resected nonmetastatic CGC who received perioperative chemotherapy (PEC), postoperative chemoradiation therapy (POCR), or postoperative chemotherapy (POC). A subgroup analysis was performed in optimally treated patients defined as initial chemotherapy within 45 days of diagnosis, resection within 45 days of diagnosis, negative margins, adjuvant chemotherapy within 90 days of resection, and standard radiation dose (45 Gy). Kaplan-Meier, Univariate analysis (UVA), and Multivariable analysis (MVA) were performed.

RESULTS

We identified 2387 patients. Median survival was 38.8 months in the PEC group, 36 months in the POCR group, and 32.3 months in the POC group (p = 0.1025). On UVA, patients treated with PEC had an association with improved survival (HR, 0.83; p = 0.037) when compared with POC. On MVA, no significant difference was noted in overall survival (OS) between PEC, POCR, and POC, similar to subgroup analysis of optimally treated cohort.

CONCLUSION

OS rate in nonmetastatic CGC is not significantly different between patients receiving PEC, POCR, or POC.

Impact of nodal status in determining multimodal treatment strategies in non-cardia gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Patients with resectable noncardia gastric cancer may be subjected to perioperative chemotherapy (PEC), postoperative chemoradiation (POCR), or postoperative chemotherapy (POC). We analyzed these treatment strategies to determine optimal therapy based on nodal status.

METHOD

The National Cancer Database was used to identify patients with resected noncardia gastric cancer (2004-2016). Patients were stratified based on clinical nodal status-negative (cLN-), positive (cLN+) and pathological nodal status (pLN-, pLN+). In cLN- patients who underwent upfront resection and were upstaged to pLN+, POC, and POCR were compared. Overall survival (OS) with PEC, POCR, and POC were compared in cLN- and cLN+.

RESULTS

We identified 6142 patients (cLN-: 3831; cLN+: 2311). In cLN- patients who underwent upfront resection (N = 3423), 69% were upstaged to pLN+ disease (N = 2499; POCR = 1796, POC = 703). On MVA, POCR was associated with significantly improved OS when compared to POC (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.75; p < 0.001). In patients with cLN- disease (PEC = 408; POCR = 2439; POC = 984), PEC(HR: 0.77; p = 0.01) and POCR(HR: 0.81; p < 0.001) were associated with improved OS compared with POC. In cLN+ group (PEC = 452; POCR = 1284; POC = 575), POCR was associated with improved OS compared with POC (HR: 0.81; p < 0.01), and trend towards improved OS was noted when PEC(HR: 0.83; p = 0.055) was compared with POC.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative chemoradiation may be the preferred treatment strategy over postoperative chemotherapy in non-cardia gastric cancer patients who receive upfront resection and are upstaged from clinically node negative to pathologically node positive disease.

A multicenter analysis of the outcomes with venetoclax in patients with relapsed mantle cell lymphoma

To report the activity of venetoclax in patients with relapsed mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), we identified 81 patients treated with venetoclax monotherapy (n = 50, 62%) or in combination with a Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi) (n = 16, 20%), an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody (n = 11, 14%), or other active agents at 12 US academic medical centers. Patients had high-risk disease features including Ki67 >30% (61%), blastoid/pleomorphic histology (29%), complex karyotype (34%), and TP53 alterations (49%), and received a median of 3 prior treatments including BTKis in 91%. Venetoclax alone or in combination resulted in an overall response rate (ORR) of 40% and median progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of 3.7 and 12.5 months, respectively. The receipt of ≤3 prior treatments was associated with higher odds of response to venetoclax in a univariable analysis. In a multivariable analysis, having a high-risk Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index score before receiving venetoclax and disease relapse or progression within 24 months of diagnosis were associated with inferior OS whereas the use of venetoclax in combination was associated with superior OS. Although most patients (61%) had low risk for tumor lysis syndrome (TLS), 12.3% of patients developed TLS despite the implementation of several mitigation strategies. In conclusion, venetoclax resulted in good ORR but short PFS in patients with MCL who are at high risk, and may have a better role in earlier lines of treatment and/or in conation with other active agents. TLS remains an important risk in patients with MCL who initiate treatment with venetoclax.

Insurance Authorization and Access to Proton Therapy for Patients With Head and Neck Cancers

PURPOSE

We evaluated our institutional experience to assess potential racial inequities in insurance coverage for proton therapy in patients with head and neck (HN) cancer.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We examined the demographics of 1519 patients with HN cancer seen in consultation at our HN multidisciplinary clinic (HN MDC) and 805 patients for whom a proton insurance authorization was sought (PAS) from January 2020 to June 2022. The prospects for proton therapy insurance authorization were prospectively noted based on each patient's ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) diagnosis code and their specific insurance plan. Proton-unfavorable (PU) insurance were those plans whose policy describes proton beam therapy as "experimental" or "not medically necessary" for the given diagnosis.

RESULTS

For patients seen in our HN MDC, Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) were significantly more likely to have PU insurance than non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients (24.9% vs 18.4%, P = .005). In multivariable analysis including race, average income of residence ZIP code, and Medicare eligibility age, BIPOC patients had an odds ratio of 1.25 for PU insurance (P = .041). In the PAS cohort, while there was no difference in the percentage of patients receiving insurance approval for proton therapy between NHW and BIPOC populations (88% vs 88.2%, P = .80), for patients with PU insurance, the median time to determination was significantly longer (median, 15.5 days), and the median time to start any radiation of any modality was longer (46 vs 35 days, P = .08). Compared with NHW patients, the median time from consultation to start of radiation therapy was longer for BIPOC patients (37 vs 43 days, P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

BIPOC patients were significantly more likely to have insurance plans unfavorable to proton therapy coverage. These PU insurance plans were associated with a longer median time to determination, a lower approval rate for proton therapy, and a longer time to start radiation of any modality.

Tracheo-oesophageal fistula in a case of organophosphate poisoning

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Differences in Failure-Free Survival After Salvage Radiotherapy Guided by Conventional Imaging Versus 18F-Fluciclovine PET/CT in Postprostatectomy Patients: A Post Hoc Substratification Analysis of the EMPIRE-1 Trial

The EMPIRE-1 (Emory Molecular Prostate Imaging for Radiotherapy Enhancement 1) trial reported a survival advantage in recurrent prostate cancer salvage radiotherapy (SRT) guided by 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT versus conventional imaging. We performed a post hoc analysis of the EMPIRE-1 cohort stratified by protocol-specified criteria, comparing failure-free survival (FFS) between study arms. Methods: EMPIRE-1 randomized patients to SRT planning via either conventional imaging only (bone scanning plus abdominopelvic CT or MRI) (arm A) or conventional imaging plus 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT (arm B). Randomization was stratified by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (<2.0 vs. ≥ 2.0 ng/mL), adverse pathology, and androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) intent. We subdivided patients in each arm using the randomization stratification criteria and compared FFS between patient subgroups across study arms. Results: Eighty-one and 76 patients received per-protocol SRT in study arms A and B, respectively. The median follow-up was 3.5 y (95% CI, 3.0-4.0). FFS was 63.0% and 51.2% at 36 and 48 mo, respectively, in arm A and 75.5% at both 36 and 48 mo in arm B. Among patients with a PSA of less than 2 ng/mL (mean, 0.42 ± 0.42 ng/mL), significantly higher FFS was seen in arm B than arm A at 36 mo (83.2% [95% CI, 70.0-91.0] vs. 66.5% [95% CI, 51.6-77.8], P < 0.001) and 48 mo (83.2% [95% CI, 70.0-91.0] vs. 56.2% [95% CI, 40.5-69.2], P < 0.001). No significant difference in FFS between study arms in patients with a PSA of at least 2 ng/mL was observed. Among patients with adverse pathology, significantly higher FFS was seen in arm B than arm A at 48 mo (68.9% [95% CI, 52.1-80.8] vs. 42.8% [95% CI, 26.2-58.3], P < 0.001) though not at the 36-mo follow-up. FFS was higher in patients without adverse pathology in arm B versus arm A (90.2% [95% CI, 65.9-97.5] vs. 73.1% [95% CI, 42.9-89.0], P = 0.006) at both 36 and 48 mo. Patients in whom ADT was intended in arm B had higher FFS than those in arm A, with the difference reaching statistical significance at 48 mo (65.2% [95% CI, 40.3-81.7] vs. 29.1 [95% CI, 6.5-57.2], P < 0.001). Patients without ADT intent in arm B had significantly higher FFS than patients in arm A at 36 mo (80.7% [95% CI, 64.9-90.0] vs. 68.0% [95% CI, 51.1-80.2]) and 48 mo (80.7% [95% CI, 64.9-90.0] vs. 58.6% [95% CI, 41.0-72.6]). Conclusion: The survival advantage due to the addition of 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT to SRT planning is maintained regardless of the presence of adverse pathology or ADT intent. Including 18F-fluciclovine PET/CT to SRT leads to survival benefits in patients with a PSA of less than 2 ng/mL but not in patients with a PSA of 2 ng/mL or higher.

Impact of 18 F-Fluciclovine PET/CT Findings on Failure-Free Survival in Biochemical Recurrence of Prostate Cancer Following Salvage Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE

We aimed to evaluate the impact of 18 F-fluciclovine PET/CT imaging on failure-free survival (FFS) post-salvage radiotherapy (SRT) for prostate cancer (PCa) recurrence.

METHODS

Seventy-nine patients were recruited in a phase 2/3 clinical trial to undergo 18 F-fluciclovine PET/CT before SRT for PCa. Four patients with extrapelvic disease were excluded. All patients were followed up at regular intervals up to 48 months. Treatment failure was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen level of ≥0.2 ng/mL above the nadir after SRT, confirmed with an additional measurement, requiring systemic treatment or clinical progression. Failure-free survival was computed and compared between patients grouped according to 18 F-fluciclovine PET/CT imaging findings.

RESULTS

Eighty percent (60/75) of patients had a positive finding on 18 F-fluciclovine PET/CT, of which 56.7% (34/60) had prostate bed-only uptake, whereas 43.3% (26/60) had pelvic nodal ± bed uptake. Following SRT, disease failure was detected in 36% (27/75) of patients. There was a significant difference in FFS between patients who had a positive versus negative scan (62.3% vs 92.9% [ P < 0.001] at 36 months and 59.4% vs 92.9% [ P < 0.001] at 48 months). Similarly, there was a significant difference in FFS between patients with uptake in pelvic nodes ± bed versus prostate bed only at 36 months (49.8% vs 70.7%; P = 0.003) and at 48 months (49.8% vs 65.6%; P = 0.040). Failure-free survival was also significantly higher in patients with either negative PET/CT or prostate bed-only disease versus those with pelvic nodal ± prostate bed disease at 36 (78% vs 49.8%, P < 0.001) and 48 months (74.4% vs 49.8%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings on pre-SRT 18 F-fluciclovine PET/CT imaging, even when acted upon to optimize the treatment decisions and treatment planning, are predictive of post-SRT FFS in men who experience PCa recurrence after radical prostatectomy. A negative 18 F-fluciclovine PET/CT is most predictive of a lower risk of failure, whereas the presence of pelvic nodal recurrence portends a higher risk of SRT failure.

Immune niches in brain metastases contain TCF1+ stem-like T cells, are associated with disease control and are modulated by preoperative SRS

The CD8+ T-cell response is prognostic for survival outcomes in several tumor types. However, whether this extends to tumors in the brain, an organ with barriers to T cell entry, remains unclear. Here, we analyzed immune infiltration in 67 brain metastasis (BrM) and found high frequencies of PD1+ TCF1+ stem-like CD8+ T-cells and TCF1- effector-like cells. Importantly, the stem-like cells aggregate with antigen presenting cells in immune niches, and niches were prognostic for local disease control. Standard of care for BrM is resection followed by stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS), so to determine SRS's impact on the BrM immune response, we examined 76 BrM treated with pre-operative SRS (pSRS). pSRS acutely reduced CD8+ T cells at 3 days. However, CD8+ T cells rebounded by day 6, driven by increased frequency of effector-like cells. This suggests that the immune response in BrM can be regenerated rapidly, likely by the local TCF1+ stem-like population.

A23 INTESTINAL STEM CELL REGULATION BY THE BACTERIAL METABOLITE ADP-HEPTOSE VIA ACTIVATION OF THE ALPK1-TIFA SIGNALLING PATHWAY

NOT PUBLISHED AT AUTHOR’S REQUEST

Mitigation strategies among cutaneous T-cell lymphoma patients with positive Staphylococcus aureus skin and soft tissue cultures have unclear impacts on the risk of subsequent bacteremia

Infections originating in the skin/soft tissue are a major cause of mortality in cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL). We performed a retrospective analysis to characterize cutaneous cultures and assess risk factors for bacteremia among 69 patients with CTCL. Cutaneous infections and antimicrobial resistance were common. Black race and lymph node involvement were associated with bacteremia. Mitigating strategies for invasive infections in CTCL remain unclear. HighlightsSkin/soft tissue infections are common in cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL).Black race, lymph node involvement, and positive cultures for S. aureus, Gram-negative bacteria, or multiple organisms were associated with an increased rate of bacteremia.The role of antimicrobial prophylaxis and staphylococcus decolonization is unclear.

Association of baseline inflammatory biomarkers with outcomes in penile squamous cell carcinoma (pSCC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI)

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Background: Penile squamous cell carcinoma (pSCC) is a rare neoplasm with a poor prognosis and a need for biomarkers to guide treatment selection. We report an association of baseline inflammatory markers with outcomes in pSCC treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Methods: We performed a retrospective review of patients with pSCC from 2012-2022 at the Winship Cancer Institute at Emory University. Demographics, disease characteristics, and optimal cutoffs of biomarkers prior to ICI initiation were described. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR), and neutrophil-to-eosinophil ratios (NER) were obtained from complete blood count data. Clinical benefit with ICI was defined as complete response, partial response, or stable disease based on RECIST 1.1 criteria. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method and univariate Cox regression (UVA) using SAS software with significance level set at p<0.05. Results: Twenty-one patients were included in which 71.4% were white and 28.6% were black. Median age at ICI initiation was 56 years (38-76). Most patients (65%) had an ECOG PS ≥2. Four patients (19.1%) had clinical benefit at best response to ICI. Most patients (76.2%) had disease progression and 14.3% were alive at last contact. Median OS was 8.4 months (mo) (95%CI: 2.3-15.7), and median PFS was 2.0 mo (95%CI: 1.3-3.2). Of 9 patients with available HPV status, 8 were HPV+. Of 12 patients with available PD-L1 status, 8 were PD-L1+. Median follow-up was 8.4 mo and median time to ICI treatment from diagnosis was 15.6 mo. High baseline NLR, MLR, PLR, and NER above optimal cut were significantly associated with shorter OS on UVA (Table,all p<0.05). High baseline NLR was associated with shorter PFS (p=0.003). Baseline NLR groups were similar except for age and without differences in race, ECOG, BMI, PD-L1, and HPV status. Conclusions: Our real-world analysis reports a potential association of baseline inflammatory biomarkers with clinical outcomes in ICI-treated pSCC. More prospective and multicenter studies are needed for further confirmation. [Table: see text]

Time to first treatment and optimal adjuvant treatment strategy in patients with resectable gastric cancer pathologically upstaged to lymph node–positive disease

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Background: Treatment strategies in resectable gastric cancer (GC) patients include perioperative chemotherapy (PEC), postoperative chemoradiation therapy (POCR), and postoperative chemotherapy (POC). Treatment delay can lead to metastases with unfavorable outcomes. We aim to identify the distribution of patients upstaged to pathologically node positive disease (pLN+) stratified by time and the optimal treatment in this cohort. Methods: We analyzed resected GC patients in the National Cancer Database (2004-2016) with clinically node negative disease (cLN-). Time from diagnosis to first definitive therapy was stratified as ≤2, >2 to ≤4, and >4 weeks. The distribution of patients upstaged from cLN- to pLN+ disease, the concordance between cLN- and pathologically lymph node negative (pLN-) disease based on treatment strategy, and time to first definitive therapy was analyzed. POC and POCR were compared to evaluate their effect on overall survival (OS) in patients with cLN- upstaged to pLN+ disease. Kaplan-Meier test, log-rank test, multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis (MVA) were performed. Results: Of the 4,828 gastric cancer patients with cLN- disease, 514 (10.65%) patients received PEC and 4,314 (89.35%) patients received upfront surgery followed by POCR/POC. Distribution of patients stratified by time between diagnosis to first definitive treatment - chemotherapy (PEC) or surgery (POC/POCR), for ≤2 weeks was 9.5% vs. 33%, >2 - ≤4 weeks was 28.4% vs. 24.2% and >4weeks was 62% vs 42.7%, respectively. Patients upstaged from cLN- to pLN+ disease in the PEC group was 43.37%(n=206), and 70%(n=2574) in the upfront surgery group (POC/POCR). Of the 206 (43.37%) patients upstaged from cLN- to pLN+ in the PEC cohort, the upstage rate was 7.77% when chemotherapy was started within 2 weeks of diagnosis, compared to 27.67% with >2 to ≤4 weeks, and 64.56% with >4 weeks. Of the 2,574 (70%) patients upstaged in the upfront surgery cohort (POCR/POC), 30.61% were upstaged in ≤2 weeks, 24.95% in >2 to ≤4 weeks, and 44.44% in ≥4 weeks. On MVA, patients with cLN- disease that were pLN- (POCR=766, POC=341) had no significant difference in OS when treated with POCR (HR 1.11, p=0.39) compared to POC. Patients with pLN+ (POCR=2300, POC=907) disease had an association with improved OS when treated with POCR (HR 0.78, p<0.001) compared to POC. Conclusions: When resectable gastric cancer patients undergoing upfront surgery are upstaged from clinically node negative to pathologically node positive disease, postoperative chemoradiation therapy may be the optimal treatment strategy compared to postoperative chemotherapy. Clinical nodal status may not be an optimal predictor of nodal disease.

Comparative efficacy of quadratus lumborum type-II and erector spinae plane block in patients undergoing caesarean section under spinal anaesthesia: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Quadratus lumborum and erector spinae plane blocks have been used to provide analgesia in patients undergoing thoracic or abdominal surgeries. Our study compared the analgesic efficacy of the quadratus lumborum type-II block (QLB-II) and the erector spinae plane block (ESPB) in parturients who underwent caesarean section under spinal anaesthesia.

METHODS

Fifty-two patients with comparable demographic profiles were randomised into two groups, QLB-II (n = 26) and ESPB (n = 26). After the surgery, patients received either ultrasound-guided QLB-II or ESPB using 0.25% bupivacaine 0.3 mL/kg. Comparison of analgesic efficacy was in terms of fentanyl consumption (primary outcome), pain scores, incidence of complications in the 24-h postoperative period, and quality of recovery (QoR-15) on postoperative days one and two, and day of discharge.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in cumulative number of fentanyl doses (W = 349.000, P = 0.840), numerical rating score at rest (P = 0.648) or with movement (P = 0.520), QoR-15 scores on postoperative day one (P = 0.549), day two (P = 0.927) or day of discharge (P = 0.676).

CONCLUSION

We concluded that patients who underwent QLB-II or ESPB reported similar analgesic efficacy, complications, and quality of recovery in the postoperative period.

The Impact of Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 on Survival in Patients with Clinical Stage I and II Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 is a biomarker to monitor treatment effect. A threshold to predict prognostic significance remains undefined. We evaluated the impact of CA19-9 on overall survival (OS) in patients with early-stage pancreatic cancer (PC) utilizing the National Cancer Database (NCDB).

METHODS

The NCDB was queried from 2010 to 2014 to identify patients with clinical stage I-II PC. Patients who had undocumented pretreatment CA19-9 were excluded. Patients were stratified into two cohorts: CA19-9 < 98 U/mL and CA19-9 ≥ 98 U/mL, and further categorized into surgery versus no surgery. Twelve- and 24-month OS rates are reported.

RESULTS

Overall, 32,382 patients (stage I: 12,173; stage II: 20,209) were included. The majority of stage I (52.1%) and II (60%) patients had CA19-9 ≥ 98 U/mL. Stage I-II patients with CA19-9 < 98 U/mL had improved OS rates (stage I: 67.5%, 42.6%; stage II: 59.8%, 32.8%) compared with stage I and II patients with CA19-9 ≥ 98 U/mL (stage I: 50.7%, 26.9%; stage II: 48.1%, 22%). Among resected stage I patients, CA19-9 <98 U/mL was associated with improved OS (< 98: 80.5%, 56%; ≥ 98: 70.2%, 42.8%), and a similar trend was seen in resected stage II patients (< 98: 77.6%, 49.9%; ≥ 98: 71%, 39.2%). Unresected stage I patients with lower CA19-9 had improved OS (< 98: 42.1%, 17.5; ≥ 98: 29.9%, 10%), with similar findings in unresected stage II patients (< 98: 41.1%, 15.3%; ≥ 98: 33.4%, 10.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated the prognostic value of CA19-9 in patients with clinical stage I-II PC, with a value < 98 U/mL demonstrating improved survival. Surgery significantly improved survival at 12 and 24 months irrespective of CA19-9.

A review of hepatic epithelioid hemangioendothelioma-Analyzing patient characteristics and treatment strategies

BACKGROUND

Hepatic epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (HEH) is a rare vascular tumor of unknown etiology and unpredictable natural history. To date, no large-scale studies have been published evaluating this disease due to its rare occurrence.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database was reviewed between 2004 and 2016 to identify patients with HEH. Univariate analysis with overall survival (OS) was performed by Cox proportional hazards model. Kaplan-Meier method was used to create OS curves and compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

We identified 229 patients with HEH. The majority of patients were female (61.1%), white (84.3%), and had a Charlson-Deyo score of 0 (75%). Chemotherapeutic intervention was seen in 26% of the patients while 33% received surgical intervention in the form of wedge/segmental liver resection (n = 27), hepatectomy lobectomy/extended lobectomy (n = 18), and liver transplant (n = 22). Five-year survival in surgical patients was 90.5%, 66.5% and 81%, respectively (p = 0.485). Age greater than 55 years (hazard ratio [HR], 2.78; p < 0.001), Asian ethnicity compared to white (HR, 2.84; p = 0.012), and a higher Charlson-Deyo score (score 1: HR, 2.28; p < 0.001 and score ≥2: HR, 2.76; p = 0.011) were associated with worse OS.

CONCLUSION

Treatment for HEH remains variable with only a third of the patients undergoing surgery. International collaboration is necessary to determine the optimal treatment for this rare disease.

RADT-21. PATTERNS OF CARE AND OUTCOMES IN PEDIATRIC HIGH-GRADE GLIOMA PATIENTS ENROLLED IN THE PEDIATRIC PROTON/PHOTON CONSORTIUM REGISTRY

BACKGROUND

Proton therapy (PRT) is increasingly utilized for pediatric brain tumors to reduce radiation associated treatment effects, but there is a lack of data evaluating PRT in pediatric high-grade glioma (pHGG). The purpose of this analysis is to report patterns of care and clinical outcomes for pHGG patients treated with PRT and enrolled in the prospective Pediatric Proton/Photon Consortium Registry (PPCR).

METHODS

Fifty-five pHGG participants treated with PRT were enrolled in the PPCR between Jan 2013 and Aug 2020. Progression free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards model with Firth’s penalization.

RESULTS

Among 49 patients with complete data, the median age was 12, the majority of patients were male (29), white (35), and non-Hispanic/Latino (41). Histology was grade IV (37), grade III (10) or HGG not specified (8). Resection was gross-total (24), near-total (4), or sub-total/biopsy (17). Six patients received prior RT. The median RT dose was 57.6 Gy (RBE) starting a median of 33.5 days after surgery. 39 patients received chemotherapy. The most common acute treatment toxicities were alopecia (36), fatigue (34), radiation dermatitis (22), nausea/vomiting (19), and headache (19). Median follow-up was 3.14 years (95% CI 1.62-3.97). At 3 years, PFS (95% CI) was 35.5% (20.8-50.6%) and OS was 55.6% (38-70%). Median PFS and OS are 1.6 (1.2-3.1) and 3.6 (1.6-NA) years, respectively. Higher radiation dose was associated with greater PFS (HR 0.97 (0.94-1.01), p=0.059) and OS (HR 0.95 (0.93-0.99), p=0.006). Patients ≤ 3 years at diagnosis (n=8) had 3-year PFS/OS of 72.9%/87.5% vs. 27.8%/49.4% for older patients (p=0.068/0.089, respectively).

CONCLUSION

These are the first published data with PRT for pHGG. Clinical outcomes are comparable to historical data with photon therapy. Additional analysis of treatment associated toxicity and patient quality-of-life are warranted.

Clinical Presentation and Outcome Differences Between Black Patients and Patients of Other Races and Ethnicities With Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome

Importance

Mycosis fungoides and Sézary syndrome (MF/SS) has an increased incidence in Black patients, but clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes have been poorly characterized.

Objective

To assess racial differences in presentation and outcome and identify drivers for racial disparities in MF/SS.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted of 566 patients with MF/SS diagnosed from 1990 to 2020 and seen at the Winship Cancer Institute of Emory University and Grady Memorial Hospital, both in Atlanta, Georgia. Self-reported race and ethnicity were obtained from patient medical records and analyzed as 2 groups: non-Hispanic Black (Black) and all other races and ethnicities, including Asian, Hispanic, White, and unknown/undeclared (non-Black).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Univariate and multivariable models and Kaplan-Meier assessments were analyzed for overall survival and time to next treatment. The primary outcome was to assess differences in overall survival by racial and ethnic group. The hypotheses were formulated prior to data collection.

Results

Of the 566 patients with MF/SS identified (mean [SD] age 55 [16.4] years; 270 (47.7%) female), 257 were Black and 309 were non-Black. Black race was associated with increased rates of progression to a higher TNMB stage (39.8% in Black patients vs 29.1% in non-Black patients; P < .001) but not survival. Black patients were younger and had increased female predominance, higher TNMB stage, higher tumor stage, nodal involvement, and higher lactate dehydrogenase level compared with non-Black patients with MF/SS. Hypopigmented MF (HMF) was found in 62 patients, who were mostly Black (n = 59). Hypopigmented MF was significantly associated with survival on univariate and multivariable models, with 10-year survival of 100% in patients with HMF compared with 51.8% in patients without HMF. Black race was only associated with inferior outcomes after excluding patients with HMF who were younger than 60 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.02-2.55; P = .04), but not in patients older than 60 years (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.80-1.81; P = .37). On multivariate analysis, among the cohort without HMF who were younger than 60 years, Black race remained statistically significant when controlling for cancer stage and large-cell transformation (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.08-2.87; P = .43).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, Black patients with MF/SS showed distinct clinical presentations and patterns of progression with heterogeneous outcomes depending on age at presentation and presence of HMF.

The impact of operability status on outcomes in patients with T4 larynx cancer undergoing larynx preservation

BACKGROUND

Large analyses of T4 larynx cancer (LC) have raised concerns that larynx preservation (LP) contributes to reduced survival compared with laryngectomy (LGX). The role of operability has not been previously considered as a confounder.

METHODS

We queried the National Cancer Database for T4M0 LC diagnosed 2004-2015. Patients were categorized as undergoing LGX, chemoradiotherapy but operable (LP-operable), and chemoradiotherapy inoperable (LP-inoperable). Overall survival (OS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier. Cox multivariate analysis (MVA) identified variables associated with OS.

RESULTS

We identified 1405 LGX, 164 LP-operable and 1969 LP-inoperable patients. Compared with LGX, MVA demonstrated worse OS among LP-inoperable (HR 1.28 95%CI 1.17-1.40, p < 0.01) but not LP-operable patients (HR 1.12 95%CI 0.91-1.39, p = 0.28).

CONCLUSIONS

LP-operable patients did not have significantly worse OS than those undergoing LGX.

Combined MEK/PD-L1 Inhibition Alters Peripheral Cytokines and Lymphocyte Populations Correlating with Improved Clinical Outcomes in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer

PURPOSE

Biliary tract cancers (BTC) are aggressive malignancies refractory to chemotherapy and immunotherapy. MEK inhibition (MEKi)-based regimens may have utility in this disease when combined with PD-L1 blockade. We hypothesize that dual MEK/PD-L1 inhibition alters circulating soluble and cellular immune mediators to improve clinical outcomes in patients with advanced BTC.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We examined immune features in peripheral blood from 77 patients with advanced BTC enrolled in a phase II clinical trial investigating atezolizumab with or without cobimetinib. Plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were isolated from whole blood to evaluate soluble factors and immune cell populations. Baseline blood samples were additionally compared with healthy donors to identify immune signatures unique to BTC.

RESULTS

At baseline, the soluble factors platelet-derived growth factor B (PDGF)-BB, placental growth factor (PlGF)-1, IL5, and IL17A were elevated in patients with BTC compared with healthy adult donors, and higher baseline frequencies of CD8+BTLA+ T cells correlated with better overall survival (OS) in this trial. There were also significant treatment-related alterations in several factors, including decreased PDGF-BB following combination treatment, that correlated with improved OS and progression-free survival (PFS). Higher baseline levels of IL23 and RANTES corresponded to improved clinical outcomes following combination treatment. Dual MEK/PD-L1 inhibition increased populations of CD4+TIM3+ and decreased CD8+VISTA+ T cells, correlating with worse OS and better PFS, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This work represents a comprehensive analysis of peripheral immune features in patients with BTC and systemic responses to dual MEK/PD-L1 inhibition. These data support further investigation to understand how MEKi combines with immunotherapeutic approaches to improve clinical outcomes for patients with advanced BTC.

African American and Caucasian patients with Sézary syndrome have no differences in outcomes at an ethnically diverse urban medical center

Sézary syndrome (SS) is an aggressive cutaneous T-cell lymphoma with poor survival. We performed a retrospective review of SS patients at Emory University from 1990 to 2020. We collected data on race, clinical characteristics, therapy, and social determinants of health. Clinical endpoints were overall survival (OS) and time to next treatment (TTNT). Univariate association and multivariable analyses were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models. Among 62 patients, 45.2% were AA. The median OS and TTNT were 3.1 years and 6.3 months, respectively, with no difference by race. AA patients had a higher median baseline LDH (360 vs. 232, p = 0.002) and a longer delay in initiation of systemic therapy compared to CC patients (3.17 vs. 2.14 months, p = 0.039), but a shorter commute (<10 miles) and no difference in insurance coverage (p = 0.260). AA patients at an academic center had unique clinical features and treatment patterns, but similar survival to CC SS patients.

LOCL-05 CEREBRAL METASTATIC LUNG CARCINOMA: EFFECT OF ALK- AND EGFR-MUTATION STATUS AND SURGICAL MANAGEMENT UPON CLINICAL OUTCOME

PURPOSE

There have been many advancements in the surgical and medical treatment of metastatic lung carcinoma. In the post-genomic era, new directed-oncological therapies such as monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKIs) may offer increased survival for lung carcinoma patients with EGFR- and ALK- mutations. No surgical series have investigated the role of these mutations upon patient survival in lung brain metastases (BM).

METHODS

We performed a multi-site, retrospective study of all patients who had BM with primary lung cancer undergoing surgical resection at Emory University Hospital between January 2012 and March 2021. Driver mutational statuses were categorized as EGFR-amplified, ALK-rearranged, or wild-type from biopsied brain tissue. Descriptive, univariate, and multivariate survival analyses were performed.

RESULTS

95 patients (mean age: 65.8 ± 10.6) met the inclusion criteria. 6 (6.3%) had ALK-rearranged mutations and 19 (20.0%) had EGFR-amplified mutations. 9 (9.5%) received second line therapies in the form of TKIs and mAbs. The majority of patients who underwent craniotomies had gross total resection (GTR) (n=72, 79.1%) with 83.5% (95% CI: 71.2-90.8%) and 89.9% (95% CI: 74.9-96.2%) 1-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), respectively. On univariate analysis, ALK-rearranged (HR: 2.92; 95% CI: 0.57-9.75; p-value = 0.230) and EGFR-amplified (HR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.15-1.61; p-value = 0.260) mutations were not significantly associated with OS.

CONCLUSION

After assessing ALK- and EGFR- mutations on OS, we found no benefit with mutational status, unlike other cancer types such as Melanoma BRAF mutations. Our low sample size of patients receiving targeted therapies may bias our measures of association to the null hypothesis. However, the OS and PFS in our cohort were better than earlier trials in literature, demonstrating the improvement in systemic lung metastasis therapy. We suspect that as further targeted therapies become available, OS and PFS for lung BM patients will continue to improve.

Utility of 3D printed models as adjunct in acetabular fracture teaching for Orthopaedic trainees

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the use of 3-D printed models as compared to didactic lectures in the teaching of acetabular fractures for Orthopaedic trainees.

METHODS

This was a randomised prospective study conducted in a tertiary hospital setting which consisted of 16 Orthopaedic residents. Ten different cases of acetabular fracture patterns were identified and printed as 3-D models. The baseline knowledge of orthopaedic residents regarding acetabular fracture classification and surgical approach was determined by an x-ray based pre-test. Trainees were then randomly assigned into two groups. Group I received only lectures. Group II were additionally provided with 3-D printed models during the lecture. Participants were then assessed for comprehension and retention of teaching.

RESULTS

Sixteen trainees participated in the trial. Both Group 1 and 2 improved post teaching with a mean score of 2.5 and 1.9 to 4.4 and 6 out of 10 respectively. The post test score for fracture classification and surgical approach were significantly higher for 3-D model group (p < 0.05). Trainees felt that the physical characteristics of the 3-D models were a good representation of acetabular fracture configuration, and should be used routinely for teaching and surgical planning.

CONCLUSION

3-D printed model of real clinical cases have significant educational impact compared to lecture-based learning towards improving young trainees' understanding of complex acetabular fractures.

Combination Immune Checkpoint Blockade Regimens for Previously Untreated Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: The Winship Cancer Institute of Emory University Experience

Introduction

There are three combination immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)-based regimens in the first-line setting for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Currently, there is limited real-world data for clinical outcomes and toxicity in mRCC patients treated with first-line ICI-based regimens.

Methods

We performed a retrospective review of 49 mRCC patients treated with ICI-based combination regimens in the standard of care setting at the Winship Cancer Institute of Emory University from 2015-2020. We collected baseline data from the electronic medical record including demographic information and disease characteristics. Immune-related adverse events (irAEs) were collected from clinic notes and laboratory values. The primary clinical outcomes measured were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR).

Results

The median age was 65 years, and most patients (80%) were males. The majority were White (86%) and had clear cell RCC (83%). Most patients had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status score of 0 (43%) or 1 (45%). Approximately one-half (49%) had at least three sites of distant metastatic disease. Most patients (88%) received nivolumab and ipilimumab. More than one-half (53%) of patients experienced an irAE, with 13 (27%) patients having treatment delayed and 18% discontinuing treatment for toxicity. The median OS was not reached, and the median PFS was 8.0 months per a Kaplan-Meier estimation. More than half of patients (53%) had a PFS > 6 months, and 22% had PFS > 1 year. The ORR was 33% for the entire cohort, and 7% of patients had a complete response.

Conclusion

We presented real-world efficacy and toxicity data for front-line ICI combination treatment regimens. The ORR and median PFS were lower in our cohort of patients compared to the available data in the clinical trial setting. This was likely because of more advanced disease in this study. Future studies should provide additional data that will allow comparisons between different ICI combination regimens for untreated mRCC.

Randomized Trial of Conventional Versus Conventional Plus Fluciclovine (18F) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography-Guided Postprostatectomy Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer: Volumetric and Patient-Reported Analyses of Toxic Effects

PURPOSE

Postprostatectomy radiation therapy planning with fluciclovine (¹⁸F) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography has demonstrated improved disease-free survival over conventional only (computed tomography- or magnetic resonance imaging-based) treatment planning. We hypothesized that incorporating PET would result in larger clinical target volumes (CTVs) without increasing patient-reported toxic effects.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

From 2012 to 2019, 165 postprostatectomy patients with detectable prostate-specific antigen were randomized (arm 1 [no PET]: 82; arm 2 [PET]: 83). Prostate bed target volumes with (CTV1: 45.0-50.4 Gy/1.8 Gy) or without (CTV2/CTV: 64.8-70.2 Gy/1.8 Gy) pelvic nodes, as well as organ-at-risk doses, were compared pre- versus post-PET (arm 2) using the paired t test and between arms using the t test. Patient-reported outcomes used International Prostate Symptom Score and Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite for Clinical Practice (EPIC-CP). Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed and linear mixed models were fitted.

RESULTS

Median follow-up of the whole cohort was 3.52 years. All patients had baseline patient-reported outcomes, 1 patient in arm 1 and 3 patients in arm 2 withdrew, and 4 arm 2 patients had extrapelvic uptake on PET with radiotherapy aborted, leaving 81 (arm 1) and 76 patients (arm 2) for analysis of toxic effects. Mean CTV1 (427.6 vs 452.2 mL; P = .462, arm 1 vs arm 2) and CTV2/CTV (137.18 vs 134.2 mL; P = .669) were similar before PET incorporation. CTV1 (454.57 vs 461.33 mL; P = .003) and CTV2/CTV (134.14 vs 135.61 mL; P < .001) were modestly larger after PET incorporation. Although V40 Gy (P = .402 and P = .522 for rectum and bladder, respectively) and V65 Gy (P = .157 and P = .182 for rectum and bladder, respectively) were not significantly different pre- versus post-PET, penile bulb dose significantly increased post-PET (P < .001 for both V40 Gy and V65 Gy). On univariate and multivariable analyses, arm was not significant for any EPIC-CP subdomain. International Prostate Symptom Score and EPIC-CP linear mixed models were not significantly different between arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite larger CTVs after incorporation of fluciclovine (¹⁸F) PET, we found no significant difference in patient-reported toxic effects with long-term follow-up.

MERTK activation drives osimertinib resistance in EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer

Acquired resistance is inevitable in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) treated with osimertinib (OSI), and the mechanisms are not well defined. The MERTK ligand GAS6 promoted downstream oncogenic signaling in EGFR-mutated (EGFRMT) NSCLC cells treated with OSI, suggesting a role for MERTK activation in OSI resistance. Indeed, treatment with MRX-2843, a first-in-class MERTK kinase inhibitor, resensitized GAS6-treated NSCLC cells to OSI. Both GAS6 and EGF stimulated downstream PI3K/AKT and MAPK/ERK signaling in parental cells, but only GAS6 activated these pathways in OSI-resistant (OSIR) derivative cell lines. Functionally, OSIR cells were more sensitive to MRX-2843 than parental cells, suggesting acquired dependence on MERTK signaling. Furthermore, MERTK and/or its ligands were dramatically upregulated in EGFRMT tumors after treatment with OSI in both xenograft models and patient samples, consistent with induction of autocrine/paracrine MERTK activation. Moreover, treatment with MRX-2843 in combination with OSI, but not OSI alone, provided durable suppression of tumor growth in vivo, even after treatment was stopped. These data identify MERTK as a driver of bypass signaling in treatment-naive and EGFRMT-OSIR NSCLC cells and predict that MRX-2843 and OSI combination therapy will provide clinical benefit in patients with EGFRMT NSCLC.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.