Relationship between financial inclusion, monetary policy and financial stability: An analysis in high financial development and low financial development countries

This article studies the linkage between financial inclusion, monetary policy and financial stability in 58 countries including 31 high financial development countries (HFDCs) and 27 low financial development countries (LFDCs) from 2004 to 2020 using the PVAR method. Results of impulse - response function suggest that in LFDCs, while financial inclusion and financial stability are positively correlated, they are negatively correlated with the inflation rate and the money supply growth rate. In HFDCs, financial inclusion is positively corelated with inflation rate and money supply growth rate, while financial stability is negatively correlated with financial inclusion, inflation rate and money supply growth rate. These findings imply that in LFDCs, financial inclusion increases financial stability and reduces inflation. In HFDCs, on the contrary, financial inclusion increases financial instability, leading to long-term inflation. The results of the variance decomposition confirm the above outcomes, specifically, this relationship is clearer in HFDCs. From the above findings, we propose some policy recommendations on financial inclusion and monetary policy for financial stability for each group of countries.

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on stock market: is there any difference between developed and developing countries?

This study analyzes the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the stock markets of 77 countries in the period March 11, 2020-October 29, 2021. Using the panel data vector autoregression (PVAR) model, we find that COVID-19 vaccination has a positive impact on stock markets of developing countries and a negative impact on developed countries. Variance decomposition results shows that COVID-19 vaccination explains 0.00022% and 0.00026% of stock market return in developed and developing countries, respectively. Our findings bear important implications: policymakers of developing countries should accelerate mass COVID-19 vaccination programs to recover stock markets, while developed country governments need to combine vaccination with other preventive measures (e.g., mask wearing in indoor public spaces) to limit the spread of the virus, especially when there is a new higher infection variant - Omicron.