Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

[Clinical importance of changes in antibody immunity in gout]

In 77 patients with gout (16 with acute attacks and 61 during an attack-free period), in 30 healthy subjects, 30 patients with IgM RF serum positive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and 20 cases of IgM RF serum negative RA the authors examined serum values of 10 parameters of antibody immunity: IgA, IgG, IgM, IgD, IgE, beta-2 microglobulin (beta-2 MG), immunocomplexes (IK), IgM RF/LFT, IgM/RF/HAT and ANA/IF. Data obtained by quantitative analyses were processed by stepwise discrimination with the consecutive selection of characteristics significant for the differentiation of the investigated groups and by assessment of classification functions which make it possible to classify individuals selected at random. The authors consider the following particularly important from the clinical aspect: acute gouty attack--IgM RF serum positive RA (IK and beta-2 MG), attack-free stage of gout--healthy subjects (IgA, IgG, IgM, IgD, IK, IgE). IgM RF were detected in 5/77 patients with gout, ANA/IF not in a single patient.

[Methodological approach to the study of effectiveness of health services. II]

The paper deals with theoretical problems associated with the evaluation of medical, social and economic effectiveness, and the authors mention different approaches to the evaluation of provision concerning the health of some population groups and provisions concerning the population as a whole. Attention is also focused on information problems of effectiveness. In the paper formulae and methodological aspects are given which can be used for the calculation of the economic effect of various prosions which reduce the morbidity, which help to save human lives or lead to an increased productivity of labour. In the conclusion methodological recommendations are given for the approach in investigations of the effectiveness of health care.