[Clinical study of constructing nomogram model based on multi-dimensional clinical indicators to predict prognosis of knee osteoarthritis]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the factors affecting the prognosis of patients with knee osteoarthritis, and to construct a nomogram prediction model in conjunction with multi-dimensional clinical indicators.

METHODS

The clinical data of 234 patients with knee osteoarthritis who were treated in our hospital from January 2015 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed, including 126 males and 108 females；age more than 60 years old for 135 cases, age less than 60 years old for 99 cases. Lysholm knee function score was used to evaluate the prognosis of the patients, and the patients were divided into good prognosis group for 155 patients and poor prognosis group for 79 patients according to the prognosis. The clinical data of the subjects in the experimental cohort were analyzed by single factor and multiple factors. The patients were divided into experimental cohort and verification cohort, the results of the multiple factor analysis were visualized to obtain a nomogram prediction model, the receiver operating characteristic curve（ROC）, calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the model's discrimination, accuracy and clinical benefit rate.

RESULTS

The results of multivariate analysis showed that smoking, pre-treatment K-L grades of Ⅲ to Ⅳ, and high levels of interleukin 6 （IL-6） and matrix metallo proteinase-3 （MMP-3） were risk factors for the prognosis of patients with knee osteoarthritis. ROC test results showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram model in the experimental cohort and validation cohort was 0.806[95%CI（0.742, 0.866）] and 0.786[（95%CI（0.678, 0.893）], respectively. The results of the calibration curve showed that the Brier values of the experimental cohort and verification cohort were 0.151 points and 0.134 points, respectively. When the threshold probability value in the decision curve was set to 31%, the clinical benefit rates of the experimental cohort and validation cohort were 51% and 56%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic model of patients with knee osteoarthritis constructed based on multi-dimensional clinical data has both theoretical and practical significance, and can provide a reference for taking targeted measures to improve the prognosis of patients.

Chlorpyrifos-induced hormesis in insecticide-resistant and -susceptible Plutella xylostella under normal and high temperatures

Hormesis induced by insecticides at the dosage lower than what ostensibly directly causes death on insects was studied. This paper reports the effects of the in vivo application of varied concentrations of chlorpyrifos (CPF) on Plutella xylostella (DBM). The insecticide concentrations applied included 0.000025-2.5 mg l-1, which are far lower than LC1 (7.2 mg l-1), for the CPF-susceptable (Si) DBM, and 250 mg l-1 which is far below LC1 (1286 mg l-1), for the CPF-resistant (Rc) DBM, as well as LC10- and LC50-doses for both strains. Significant hormesis was found with the 'hermetic-CPFs', i.e., 0.0025 mg l-1 for Si DBM and 2.5 mg l-1 for Rc DBM, at the normal or high temperature either in a 24 h or under a long-term treatment. These doses of CPF significantly stimulated the development and increased the fecundity of Si and Rc DBM at 25°C with approximately 23.5-29.8% activity increase on acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and 30.5-91.3% increase on glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) at 25 or 38°C in 4-24 h. The enzymatic activities were significantly reduced by LC50-CPF at 25°C in vivo, but the inhibition was relieved significantly, if the insects were first subjected to a hormetic-CPF pretreatment. It was remarkable that the average rates of enzymatic activity increase were 67.5-76.6% for AChE and 366-546% for GSTs. Consequently, it was concluded that the hormesis on Si and Rc DBM could be induced by CPF doses far below LC1 at normal or high temperature in short- or long-term treatment. These findings might help to improve the current insect control practices in the field.

[Effect of mouse nerve growth factor on cognitive impairment in whole brain irradiation rats]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the positive effects of mouse nerve growth factor(mNGF) on cognitive impairment in whole brain irradiation rats.

METHODS

Fifty-five male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into normal control group, mNGF treated group, saline treated group.mNGF treated group and saline treated group were cranial irradiated at a single dose of 12 Gy by X-ray.30 days after radiation each group were treated with correspondent drugs.60 days after radiation, Morris water maze experiment, EB leakage of the brain, and expressions of neuN, vWF, ZO-1 in hippocampus by immunofluorescence, and expressions of neuN, vWF, ZO-1, VEGF and GFAP in hippocampus by Western blot were tested and analyzed.

RESULTS

The escape latencies: normal control group< mNGF treated group< saline treated group; the numbers of crossing hidden platform in these 3 groups were 3.00± 1.08, 1.50± 1.08, 0.38± 0.48 times (P<0.01). EB leakage of these 3 groups were 0.14±0.14, 0.66±0.20 and 1.36±0.27 μg/g (P<0.05). In immunofluorescence, expressions of neuN, vWF and ZO-1: normal control group> mNGF treated group> saline treated group.In Western blot, expressions of neuN, vWF and ZO-1: normal control group> mNGF treated group> saline treated group, yet the expressions of VEGF and GFAP: normal control group< mNGF treated group< saline treated group.

CONCLUSION

mNGF ameliorates cognitive impairment after whole brain irradiation.

[Comparison between two diagnostic methods of computer's mathematic model and clinical diagnosis on TCM syndromes of rheumatoid arthritis]

Based on the test result of 14 trace elements in hair of 163 cases of rheumatoid arthritis, we used one of the methods of the computer's mathematic model, DYNAMIC to assign the patients to five groups among multidimensional space. Then, another method, M-DEC was used to diagnose it back on one plane. The result was compared with that by the usual clinical diagnosis, also five groups were obtained, the group of Deficiency of both Liver and Kidney, syndrome of intermingled Cold with Heat, Deficiency of Qi and Yin, syndrome of Dampness-Heat stagnating in collaterals and syndrome of Phlegm-Dampness stagnating in collaterals. And Kappa was 0.77, greater than 0.6. It displayed the consistency in observation of these two methods, which was shown reliable. After that, we have detected the sensitivity of the syndrome diagnosis by computer's mathematic model method, the result was 96.67% and the specificity of that was 95.15%. So we consider this method could give us an objective judgment on TCM syndromes of rheumatoid arthritis.