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Kurvers RHJM, Herzog SM, Hertwig R, Krause J, Moussaid M, Argenziano G, Zalaudek I, Carney PA, Wolf M. How to detect high-performing individuals and groups: Decision similarity predicts accuracy. Sci Adv 2019; 5:eaaw9011. [PMID: 31976366 PMCID: PMC6957221 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2019] [Accepted: 09/20/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Distinguishing between high- and low-performing individuals and groups is of prime importance in a wide range of high-stakes contexts. While this is straightforward when accurate records of past performance exist, these records are unavailable in most real-world contexts. Focusing on the class of binary decision problems, we use a combined theoretical and empirical approach to develop and test a approach to this important problem. First, we use a general mathematical argument and numerical simulations to show that the similarity of an individual's decisions to others is a powerful predictor of that individual's decision accuracy. Second, testing this prediction with several large datasets on breast and skin cancer diagnostics, geopolitical forecasting, and a general knowledge task, we find that decision similarity robustly permits the identification of high-performing individuals and groups. Our findings offer a simple, yet broadly applicable, heuristic for improving real-world decision-making systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. H. J. M. Kurvers
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
| | - S. M. Herzog
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - R. Hertwig
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - J. Krause
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
| | - M. Moussaid
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin, Germany
| | - G. Argenziano
- Dermatology Unit, University of Campania, Naples 80131, Italy
| | - I. Zalaudek
- Dermatology Clinic, Maggiore Hospital, University of Trieste, Piazza dell’ Ospedale 1, 34125 Trieste, Italy
| | - P. A. Carney
- Department of Family Medicine, Knight Cancer Institute, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR 97239, USA
| | - M. Wolf
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany
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