Exploring the association between acute pancreatitis and biliary tract cancer: A large-scale population-based matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Biliary tract cancer (BTC) often goes undetected until its advanced stages, resulting in a poor prognosis. Given the anatomical closeness of the gallbladder and bile ducts to the pancreas, the inflammatory processes triggered by acute pancreatitis might increase the risk of BTC.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between acute pancreatitis and the risk of BTC.

METHODS

Using the Swedish Pancreatitis Cohort (SwePan), we compared the BTC risk in patients with a first-time episode of acute pancreatitis during 1990-2018 to a 1:10 matched pancreatitis-free control group. Multivariable Cox regression models, stratified by follow-up duration, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for socioeconomic factors, alcohol use, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

BTC developed in 0.94% of 85,027 acute pancreatitis patients and in 0.23% of 814,993 controls. The BTC risk notably increased within 3 months of hospital discharge (HR 82.63; 95% CI: 63.07-108.26) and remained elevated beyond 10 years of follow-up (HR 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.47). However, the long-term risk of BTC subtypes did not increase with anatomical proximity to the pancreas, with a null association for gallbladder and extrahepatic tumors. Importantly, patients with acute pancreatitis had a higher occurrence of early-stage BTC within 2 years of hospital discharge than controls (13.0 vs. 3.6%; p-value <0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our nationwide study found an elevated BTC risk in acute pancreatitis patients; however, the risk estimates for BTC subtypes were inconsistent, thereby questioning the causality of the association. Importantly, the amplified detection of early-stage BTC within 2 years after a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis underscores the necessity for proactive BTC surveillance in these patients.

The burden of critical illness among adults in a Swedish region-a population-based point-prevalence study

BACKGROUND

Patients with critical illness have a high risk of mortality. Key decision-making in the health system affecting the outcomes of critically ill patients requires epidemiological evidence, but the burden of critical illness is largely unknown. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of critical illness in a Swedish region. Secondary objectives were to estimate the proportion of hospital inpatients who are critically ill and to describe the in-hospital location of critically ill patients.

METHODS

A prospective, multi-center, population-based, point-prevalence study on specific days in 2017-2018. All adult (> 18 years) in-patients, regardless of admitting specially, in all acute hospitals in Sörmland, and the patients from Sörmland who had been referred to university hospitals, were included. Patients in the operating theatres, with a psychiatric cause of admission, women in active labor and moribund patients, were excluded. All participants were examined by trained data collectors. Critical illness was defined as "a state of ill health with vital organ dysfunction, a high risk of imminent death if care is not provided and a potential for reversibility". The presence of one or more severely deranged vital signs was used to classify critical illness. The prevalence of critical illness was calculated as the number of critically ill patients divided by the number of adults in the region.

RESULTS

A total of 1269 patients were included in the study. Median age was 74 years and 50% of patients were female. Critical illness was present in 133 patients, resulting in an adult population prevalence of critical illness per 100,000 people of 19.4 (95% CI 16.4-23.0). The proportion of patients in hospital who were critically ill was 10.5% (95% CI 8.8-12.3%). Among the critically ill, 125 [95% CI 94.0% (88.4-97.0%)] were cared for in general wards.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of critical illness was higher than previous, indirect estimates. One in ten hospitalized patients were critically ill, the large majority of which were cared for in general wards. This suggests a hidden burden of critical illness of potential public health, health system and hospital management significance.