[Benchmark dose estimation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons exposure base on Bayesian kernel machine regression]

Objective: To explore benchmark dose (BMD) estimations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) based on Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) . Methods: A total of 155 adult residents of a coking plant in Shanxi Province who were surveyed in summer (June to August) from 2014 to 2019 were selected as the research objects. Fasting elbow vein blood of the subjects was collected in the morning for automatic analysis and detection of blood routine. Morning urine samples were collected for automatic analysis and detection of urine routine and urine creatinine detection. BKMR model combined with BMD method was used to calculate the acceptable doses of PAHs exposure on red blood cell damage in non-occupational population. Results: The concentration of hydroxylpolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (OH-PAHs) in the red blood cells abnormal group (n=117) was significantly higher than that in the normal group (n=38) (P<0.01). In the combined effect of OH-PAHs, 2-hydrol-naphthalene contributed the most, and the posterior inclusion probability (PIP) value was 0.9354. When OH-PAHs ≥P(55) concentration, the joint effect on the risk of red blood cell abnormalities increased as the concentration of the OH-PAHs mixture increased. When OH-PAHs were at P(65) and P(75) concentrations, respectively, the risk of red blood cell abnormalities in adults were 3.09 and 4.98 times that of OH-PAHs at P(50) concentrations, respectively. Compared with high concentration, low concentration of OH-PAHs exposure was more sensitive to red blood cell darmage. The acceptable doses of 8 kinds of OH-PAHs were 1.010 μmol/mol Cr (2-hydrol-naphthalene), 0.743 μmol/mol Cr (1-hydrol-naphthalene), 0.901 μmol/mol Cr (2-hydroxy-fluorene) and 0.775 μmol/mol Cr (1-hydroxy-phenanthrene), 0.737 μmol/mol Cr (1-hydroxy-pyrene), 0.607 μmol/mol Cr (9-hydroxy-fluorene), 0.713 μmol/mol Cr (2-hydroxy-phenanthrene) and 0.628 μmol/mol Cr (3-hydroxybenzo[a] pyrene), respectively. Conclusion: OH-PAHs mixture has positive combined effect on red blood cell damage in non-occupational population, and low concentration of OH-PAHs exposure is more sensitive to red blood cell damage. It is recommended that the exposure dose of PAHs should be controlled within 1 μmol/mol Cr.