More 50+ Workers Means More 50+ Policy-Until it Doesn't. The Non-Linear Relation Between Proportion of Older Workers and Implementation of Policies for Older Workers

Personnel policies specifically for older workers can benefit both the older workers and their organization. It is often assumed that a higher percentage of older workers in an organization is associated with more policies for older workers. We hypothesize that policies accommodating older workers, such as extra leave or a reduced workload, become unfeasible if the proportion of older workers is high. We pooled data from five datasets to study eleven older-worker policies in 7330 Dutch establishments. The results show that the number of implemented personnel policies for older workers is highest in establishments where 30-50% of the workers are 50 years and older. The number of implemented policies is lower in establishments with more older than younger workers. This pattern is found for most phasing out policies.

The heterogeneous impact of stricter criteria for disability insurance

The Netherlands reformed its disability insurance (DI) scheme in 2006. Eligibility for DI became stricter, reintegration incentives became stronger, and DI benefits often became less generous. Based on administrative data on all individuals who reported sick shortly before and after the reform, difference-in-differences regressions show that the reform reduced DI receipt by 5.2 percentage points and increased labor participation and unemployment insurance (UI) receipt by 1.2 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. It increased average monthly earnings and UI claims to overcompensate lost DI benefits. However, older individuals, women, individuals with temporary contracts, the unemployed, and low-wage earners did not compensate or compensated to a much smaller extent for the lost DI benefits. The effects are persistent during the 10 years after the reform.

Trust and Distrust in Pension Providers in Times of Decline and Reform: Analysis of Survey Data 2004-2021

Trust in pension providers by participants is essential because pension providers try to fulfill their pension promises in a fundamentally uncertain world. Reforms and crises are therefore the ultimate testing ground for pension trust. In this paper we estimate with repeated cross-sectional survey data how trust and distrust in Dutch pension funds and the government have evolved over the period 2004-2021 and what the impact of financial stability on trust in these two institutions has been. Financial stability of pension funds, measured by their funding ratio, is shown to affect trust positively, but it does not decrease distrust significantly. Based on the estimation results, achieving a situation where the majority of the adult population trusts pension funds is likely to be attained at funding ratios of 115 or higher. Financial stability of government (measured by government debt/GDP ratio) does not affect either trust or distrust levels. Underlying drivers of distrust and trust such as personal characteristics are also notable: self-employed are more prone to distrust pension funds than employees. Women are more than men likely to take a neutral position.

Employment trends at older ages: policy impact or secular change?

Observed increases in retirement age are generally attributed to policies to extend working lives (PEW). In a quasi-experimental design, we examine to what extent increases in employment of older workers can be attributed to secular changes in individual characteristics as opposed to PEW. We compare two countries: one with clear PEW (the Netherlands) and one without PEW (Norway). Data come from the Dutch Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam and the NORwegian Longitudinal study on Aging and Generations. From each study, two same-age (55-64 years) samples are selected, one recruited in 2002-03, and one recruited after five (Norway) and ten years (Netherlands). In pooled regression analysis, paid work is the outcome variable, and time of measurement, the main independent variable. Individual characteristics include age, sex, educational level, self-perceived health, functional limitations, sense of mastery, and work status of partner. Employment rose in both countries, faster in the Netherlands than in Norway. Of the rise in employment, individual characteristics explained less in the Netherlands than in Norway. Accounting for these, the interaction country*time was significant, indicating an extra rise in employment of 5.2 and 7.5% points for Dutch men and women, net of individual characteristics and unobserved factors that are assumed to be similar in both countries. The extra rise in the Netherlands represents 57% of the total rise for both sexes. Thus, secular change in individual characteristics explains part of the rise in employment in both countries. In the Netherlands, other factors such as PEW may additionally explain the rise in employment.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-021-00664-0.

Chronic health conditions and work-related stress in older adults participating in the Dutch workforce

The proportion of workers with chronic health conditions (CHCs) will increase over the years as pension reform is increasing the age of retirement in many European countries. This will increase the percentage of older adults with CHCs performing highly demanding work. This study sought to examine the association between common CHCs [cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, arthritis, respiratory and sleep disorders] and three domains of work stress in older Dutch workers. This study used data from the first wave of the NIDI Pension Panel Study for working adults aged 60–65 years (n = 6793). Logistic regression models examined the strength of association between CHCs and (1) general work stress, (2) emotional, and (3) physical demands. All five CHC were independently associated with one or more domains of stress. After including all CHCs in the model, CVD, sleep disorders, and arthritis were significantly associated with general stress. Respiratory disorders, sleep disorders, and arthritis were significantly associated with physical demands. Diabetes (1.25, 95% CI 1.01–1.53), sleep disorders (1.99, 95% CI 1.72–2.31), and arthritis (1.18, 95% CI 1.06–1.31) were significantly associated with emotional demands. Our findings demonstrate that work stress is associated with prevalent CHCs, and these conditions are differentially associated with several domains of work stress in adults approaching retirement. More research is needed to understand the causal relationship between CHCs and work stress. Such research may provide insights for effective workplace and public health interventions to ensure that older workers remain physically and mentally healthy, and productive through their working years.

Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents' Evaluations

Subjective probabilities are central to risk assessment, decision making, and risk communication efforts. Surveys measuring probability judgments have traditionally used open-ended response modes, asking participants to generate a response between 0% and 100%. A typical finding is the seemingly excessive use of 50%, perhaps as an expression of "I don't know." In an online survey with a nationally representative sample of the Dutch population, we examined the effect of response modes on the use of 50% and other focal responses, predictive validity, and respondents' survey evaluations. Respondents assessed the probability of dying, getting the flu, and experiencing other health-related events. They were randomly assigned to a traditional open-ended response mode, a visual linear scale ranging from 0% to 100%, or a version of that visual linear scale on which a magnifier emerged after clicking on it. We found that, compared to the open-ended response mode, the visual linear and magnifier scale each reduced the use of 50%, 0%, and 100% responses, especially among respondents with low numeracy. Responses given with each response mode were valid, in terms of significant correlations with health behavior and outcomes. Where differences emerged, the visual scales seemed to have slightly better validity than the open-ended response mode. Both high-numerate and low-numerate respondents' evaluations of the surveys were highest for the visual linear scale. Our results have implications for subjective probability elicitation and survey design.

The difference between LSMC and replicating portfolio in insurance liability modeling

Solvency II requires insurers to calculate the 1-year value at risk of their balance sheet. This involves the valuation of the balance sheet in 1 year's time. As for insurance liabilities, closed-form solutions to their value are generally not available, insurers turn to estimation procedures. While pure Monte Carlo simulation set-ups are theoretically sound, they are often infeasible in practice. Therefore, approximation methods are exploited. Among these, least squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) and portfolio replication are prominent and widely applied in practice. In this paper, we show that, while both are variants of regression-based Monte Carlo methods, they differ in one significant aspect. While the replicating portfolio approach only contains an approximation error, which converges to zero in the limit, in LSMC a projection error is additionally present, which cannot be eliminated. It is revealed that the replicating portfolio technique enjoys numerous advantages and is therefore an attractive model choice.