Development of the Escalation of Therapy or Intervention (ETI) Calculator for Patients with Ulcerative Colitis Using ePROMs

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Digital collection of patient-reported outcome measures [PROMs] is largely unexplored as a basis for follow-up for patients with ulcerative colitis [UC]. Our aim was to develop a model to predict the likelihood of escalation of therapy or intervention at an outpatient appointment that may be used to rationalize follow-up.

METHODS

TrueColours-IBD is a web-based, real-time, remote monitoring software that allows longitudinal collection of ePROMs. Data for prediction modelling were derived from a Development Cohort, guided by the TRIPOD statement. Logistic regression modelling used ten candidate items to predict escalation of therapy or intervention. An Escalation of Therapy or Intervention [ETI] calculator was developed, and applied in a Validation Cohort at the same centre.

RESULTS

The Development Cohort [n = 66] was recruited in 2016 and followed for 6 months [208 appointments]. From ten items, four significant predictors of ETI were identified: SCCAI, IBD Control-8, faecal calprotectin, and platelets. For practicality, a model with only SCCAI and IBD Control-8, both entered remotely by the patient, without the need for faecal calprotectin or blood tests was selected. Between 2018 and 2020, a Validation Cohort of 538 patients [1188 appointments] was examined. A 5% threshold on the ETI calculator correctly identified 343/388 [88%] escalations and 274/484 [57%] non-escalations.

CONCLUSIONS

A calculator based on digital, patient-entered data on symptoms and quality of life can predict whether a patient with UC requires escalation of therapy or intervention at an outpatient appointment. This may be used to streamline outpatient appointments for patients with UC.

Using item response theory (IRT) to improve the efficiency of the Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index (SCCAI) for patients with ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND

The SCCAI was designed to facilitate assessment of disease activity in ulcerative colitis (UC). We aimed to interrogate the metric properties of individual items of the SCCAI using item response theory (IRT) analysis, to simplify and improve its performance.

METHODS

The original 9-item SCCAI was collected through TrueColours, a real-time software platform which allows remote entry and monitoring of patients with UC. Data were securely uploaded onto Dementias Platform UK Data Portal, where they were analysed in Stata 16.1 SE. A 2-parameter (2-PL) logistic IRT model was estimated to evaluate each item of the SCCAI for its informativeness (discrimination). A revised scale was generated and re-assessed following systematic removal of items.

RESULTS

SCCAI data for 516 UC patients (41 years, SD = 15) treated in Oxford were examined. After initial item deletion (Erythema nodosum, Pyoderma gangrenosum), a 7-item scale was estimated. Discrimination values (information) ranged from 0.41 to 2.52 indicating selected item inefficiency with three items < 1.70 which is a suggested discriminatory value for optimal efficiency. Systematic item deletions found that a 4-item scale (bowel frequency day; bowel frequency nocturnal; urgency to defaecation; rectal bleeding) was more informative and discriminatory of trait severity (discrimination values of 1.50 to 2.78). The 4-item scale possesses higher scalability and unidimensionality, suggesting that the responses to items are either direct endorsement (patient selection by symptom) or non-endorsement of the trait (disease activity).

CONCLUSION

Reduction of the SCCAI from the original 9-item scale to a 4-item scale provides optimum trait information that will minimise response burden. This new 4-item scale needs validation against other measures of disease activity such as faecal calprotectin, endoscopy and histopathology.

Immune checkpoint inhibitor-related colitis assessment and prognosis: can IBD scoring point the way?

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) improve survival but cause immune-related adverse events (irAE). We sought to determine if CTCAE classification, IBD biomarkers/endoscopic/histological scores correlate with irAE colitis outcomes.

METHODS

A dual-centre retrospective study was performed on patients receiving ICI for melanoma, NSCLC or urothelial cancer from 2012 to 2018. Demographics, clinical data, endoscopies (reanalysed using Mayo/Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS) scores), histology (scored with Nancy Index) and treatment outcomes were analysed.

RESULTS

In all, 1074 patients were analysed. Twelve percent (134) developed irAE colitis. Median patient age was 66, 59% were male. CTCAE diarrhoea grade does not correlate with steroid/ infliximab use. G3/4 colitis patients are more likely to need infliximab (p < 0.0001) but colitis grade does not correlate with steroid duration. CRP, albumin and haemoglobin do not correlate with severity. The UCEIS (p = 0.008) and Mayo (p = 0.016) scores correlate with severity/infliximab requirement. Patients with higher Nancy indices (3/4) are more likely to require infliximab (p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

CTCAE assessment does not accurately reflect colitis severity and our data do not support its use in isolation, as this may negatively impact timely management. Our data support utilising endoscopic scoring for patients with >grade 1 CTCAE disease, and demonstrate the potential prognostic utility of objective histologic scoring.