Risk factors and predictive nomograms for bedside emergency endoscopic treatment following endotracheal intubation in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding

Data on emergency endoscopic treatment following endotracheal intubation in patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) remain limited. This retrospective study aimed to explore the efficacy and risk factors of bedside emergency endoscopic treatment following endotracheal intubation in severe EGVB patients admitted in Intensive Care Unit. A total of 165 EGVB patients were enrolled and allocated to training and validation sets in a randomly stratified manner. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors to construct nomograms for predicting the prognosis related to endoscopic hemostasis failure rate and 6-week mortality. In result, white blood cell counts (p = 0.03), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (p = 0.001) and comorbid shock (p = 0.005) were selected as independent clinical predictors of endoscopic hemostasis failure. High CTP score (p = 0.003) and the presence of gastric varices (p = 0.009) were related to early rebleeding after emergency endoscopic treatment. Furthermore, the 6-week mortality was significantly associated with MELD scores (p = 0.002), the presence of hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.045) and postoperative rebleeding (p < 0.001). Finally, we developed practical nomograms to discern the risk of the emergency endoscopic hemostasis failure and 6-week mortality for EGVB patients. In conclusion, our study may help identify severe EGVB patients with higher hemostasis failure rate or 6-week mortality for earlier implementation of salvage treatments.