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Ouled-Cheikh J, March D, Borras-Chavez R, Drago M, Goebel ME, Fariña JM, Gazo M, Coll M, Cardona L. Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17191. [PMID: 38433338 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Revised: 12/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jazel Ouled-Cheikh
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) and Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- iMARES group, Departament de Recursos Marins Renovables, Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - David March
- Institut Cavanilles de Biodiversitat i Biologia Evolutiva (ICBiBE), Universitat de València, Paterna, València, Spain
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Science, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Renato Borras-Chavez
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Department of Biology, Baylor University, Waco, Texas, USA
| | - Massimiliano Drago
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) and Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Michael E Goebel
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC), Santa Cruz, California, USA
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, SWFSC, NMFS, NOAA, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - José M Fariña
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Manel Gazo
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) and Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Coll
- iMARES group, Departament de Recursos Marins Renovables, Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Luis Cardona
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) and Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals (BEECA), Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
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