Evaluation of the mid- and long-term effects of a private car driving-restriction policy under the carbon emission peak target

To investigate the medium- and long-term effects of a driving-restriction policy under the guidance of carbon emission peak goals, Beijing was taken as an example to construct a private-car energy-conservation and emission-reduction model with dual-driving factors from the perspective of the economy, environment, technology, and energy. Through causal analysis, the negative effects of a driving-restriction policy were revealed. The simulation results revealed the following. (1) A driving-restriction policy is effective in the short term, but in the long run, it cannot effectively reduce CO2 emissions and the quantity of fuel used in private cars (e.g., the increase in the amount of CO2 pollution and degree of parking space tension, as well as the rebound of air pollution). (2) Compared with the driving-restriction policy, the combined policy reduces the amount of CO2 pollution by approximately 52.45%, the PM2.5 concentration by 21.98%, and the quantity of fuel in private cars by 33.42% by 2035, while improving the air quality by approximately 144.79%. Therefore, this article provides a theoretical basis for optimizing driving-restriction policies and achieving the carbon emission peak target.

Modeling and simulation analysis of vehicle pollution and carbon reduction management model based on system dynamics

The vehicle exhaust pollution has become an important source of air pollutant and CO2 emissions, with the continuous growth of the number of vehicles. Focusing on the increasingly serious problems of vehicle exhaust pollution and CO2 emissions, a management model of vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction was established by using system dynamics. Taking Beijing as the case study city, different emission reduction scenarios were designed. Different scenarios are analyzed, and the results reveal the following: (1) Although the carbon tax policy for motor vehicles can play a role in vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction to a certain extent, but as the simulation time goes on, the policy effect is gradually weakened. The emission reduction effect of new energy vehicle promotion policy is not significant, and there is a "lag effect" and a "seesaw effect." (2) The science and technology policy has multiple effects of environmental, economic, and health. It can significantly reduce vehicle pollution and carbon emissions, and achieve the peak carbon by 2030. (3) It is not that more policies are better for CO2 emission reduction, and there is a "crowding out effect" in the CS. (4) From the perspectives of long term, the science and technology policy is a more effective way to achieve the co-control of CO2 and PM2.5 and achieve the carbon peaking goal compared with other emission reduction scenarios. These results can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies and realize the management of motor vehicle pollution reduction and carbon reduction.

Effect of urban traffic-restriction policy on improving air quality based on system dynamics and a non-homogeneous discrete grey model

With the acceleration of urbanization, traffic congestion and vehicle exhaust pollution are becoming increasingly serious problems. Focusing on the problem of urban pollution from vehicle exhaust, this study used system dynamics to establish an urban congestion mitigation and emission-reduction management model. Specifically, a nonlinear function that integrates system dynamics and a non-homogeneous discrete grey model (SD-NDGM) was used to construct an algorithm, which improved the accuracy of the model. Thereafter, the mid- and long-term effects of the restriction policy were explored. The main findings from dynamic model simulations were as follows: All types of restrictions alleviated traffic congestion to varying degrees, but "odd and even" restrictions had more obvious effects, with an average annual reduction rate of 43.53% in the number of motor vehicle trips. The driving-restriction policy had a time effect, significantly reducing the number of vehicle trips in the short term. However, it could have negative effects in the long term (e.g., agglomeration effect, emission-reduction paradox), and it does not fundamentally solve traffic and environmental problems. Thus, it could only be used as a phased policy, not a long-term measure. The purchase-restriction policy controlled excessive increases in the number of private cars, but it had little effect in terms of solving environmental problems. Compared with a single policy, the combination of public-transport development and driving-restriction policy not only reduced traffic congestion, air pollution, and air quality health indexes by 29.13%, 52.63%, and 54.63%, respectively, but also improved environmental carrying capacity by 294.26%. A combined approach can therefore be said to have certain benefits for society, health, and the environment.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-022-02319-9.