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Holm RH, Rempala GA, Choi B, Brick JM, Amraotkar AR, Keith RJ, Rouchka EC, Chariker JH, Palmer KE, Smith T, Bhatnagar A. Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates. Commun Med (Lond) 2024; 4:70. [PMID: 38594350 PMCID: PMC11004132 DOI: 10.1038/s43856-024-00494-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. METHODS We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( S ), vaccinated ( V ), variant-specific infected (I 1 andI 2 ), recovered ( R ), and seropositive ( T ) model ( S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. RESULTS Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.
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Grants
- P20 GM103436 NIGMS NIH HHS
- This study was supported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (75D30121C10273), Louisville Metro Government, James Graham Brown Foundation, Owsley Brown II Family Foundation, Welch Family, Jewish Heritage Fund for Excellence, the National Institutes of Health, (P20GM103436), the Rockefeller Foundation, the National Sciences Foundation (DMS-2027001), and the Basic Science Research Program National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) (RS-2023-00245056).
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Affiliation(s)
- Rochelle H Holm
- Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Grzegorz A Rempala
- Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
| | - Boseung Choi
- Division of Biostatistics, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
- Division of Big Data Science, Korea University, Sejong, South Korea
- Biomedical Mathematics Group, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon, South Korea
| | | | - Alok R Amraotkar
- Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Rachel J Keith
- Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Eric C Rouchka
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
- KY INBRE Bioinformatics Core, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Julia H Chariker
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Genetics, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
- KY INBRE Bioinformatics Core, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Kenneth E Palmer
- Center for Predictive Medicine for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
- Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Ted Smith
- Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA
| | - Aruni Bhatnagar
- Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40202, USA.
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