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Duan Q, Wang Y, Jiang X, Ding S, Zhang Y, Yao M, Pang B, Tian X, Ma W, Kou Z, Wen H. Spatial-temporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2022. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:1032. [PMID: 38615002 PMCID: PMC11015691 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18440-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/15/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) signals a recurring risk in Eurasia in recent years owing to its continued rise in case notifications and the extension of geographical distribution. This study was undertaken to investigate the spatiotemporal drivers and incidence heterogeneity of HFRS transmission in Shandong Province. METHODS The epidemiological data for HFRS, meteorological data and socioeconomic data were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, and Shandong Statistical Yearbook, respectively. The spatial-temporal multicomponent model was employed to analyze the values of spatial-temporal components and the heterogeneity of HFRS transmission across distinct regions. RESULTS The total effect values of the autoregressive, epidemic, and endemic components were 0.451, 0.187, and 0.033, respectively, exhibiting significant heterogeneity across various cities. This suggested a pivotal role of the autoregressive component in propelling HFRS transmission in Shandong Province. The epidemic component of Qingdao, Weifang, Yantai, Weihai, and Jining declined sharply at the onset of 2020. The random effect identified distinct incidence levels associated with Qingdao and Weifang, signifying regional variations in HFRS occurrence. CONCLUSIONS The autoregressive component emerged as a significant driver in the transmission of HFRS in Shandong Province. Targeted preventive measures should be strategically implemented across various regions, taking into account the predominant component influencing the epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Duan
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Yao Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, China
- Department of Microbiological Laboratory Technology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, China
| | - Xiaolin Jiang
- Ministry of Research and Education, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Shujun Ding
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Yuwei Zhang
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Mingxiao Yao
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Bo Pang
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Xueying Tian
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, China
| | - Zengqiang Kou
- Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, 250014, China.
- Infection Disease Control of Institute, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Jinan, 250014, China.
| | - Hongling Wen
- Department of Microbiological Laboratory Technology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, China.
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