COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 52 Reporting period ending 10 October 2021

This is the fifty-second epidemiological report for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), reported in Australia as at 23:59 Australian Eastern Daylight Time [AEDT] 10 October 2021. It includes data on COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Australia and the international situation.

In silico Design of a Vaccine Candidate for SAR S-CoV-2 Based on Multiple T-cell and B-cell Epitopes

Coronaviruses (2019-nCoV) are large single-stranded RNA viruses that usually cause respiratory infections with a crude lethality ratio of 3.8% and high levels of transmissibility. There is yet no applicable clinical evaluation to assess the efficacy of various therapeutic agents that have been suggested as investigational drugs against the viruses despite their respective supposed hypothetical claims due to their antiviral potentials. Moreover, the development of a safe and effective vaccine has been suggested as an intervention to control the 2019-nCoV pandemic. However, a major concern in the development of a 2019-nCoV vaccine is the possibility of stimulating a corresponding immune response without enhancing the induction of the disease and associated side effects. The present investigation was carried out by predicting the antigenicity of the primary sequences of 2019-nCoV structural proteins and identification of B-cell and T-cell epitopes through the Bepipred and PEPVAC servers, respectively. The peptides of the vaccine construct include the selected epitopes based on the VaxiJen score with a threshold of 1.0 and β-defensinas an adjuvant. The putative binding of the vaccine constructs to intracellular toll-like receptors (TLRs) was assessed through molecular docking analysis and molecular dynamics simulations. The selected epitopes for the final vaccine construct are DPNFKD, SPLSLN, and LELQDHNE as B-cell epitopes and EPKLGSLVV, NFKDQVILL, and SSRSSSRSR as T-cell epitopes. The molecular docking analysis showed the vaccine construct could have favorable interactions with TLRs as indicated by the negative values of the computed binding energies. The constructed immunogen based on the immune informatics study could be employed in the strategy to develop potential vaccine candidates against 2019-nCoV.

COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 51 Reporting period ending 26 September 2021

This is the fifty-first epidemiological report for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), reported in Australia as at 23:59 Australian Eastern Standard Time [AEST] 26 September 2021. It includes data on COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Australia.

COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 36 Reporting period ending 28 February 2021

This is the thirty-sixth epidemiological report for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), reported in Australia as at 23:59 Australian Eastern Daylight Time [AEDT] 28 February 2021. It includes data on COVID-19 cases diagnosed in Australia and the international situation.

[Prediction of end of lockdown post-peak of cases in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile]

Introduction

The results of mandatory confinement have been detrimental in several respects. Nonetheless, they have resulted in reducing the number of active cases of COVID-19. Chile has begun the de-escalation and needs to know the best time to end the restrictions.

Objective

We discuss the best conditions and guarantees for the end of compulsory confinement.

Methods

This study is based on a trend model with prediction estimation. The data of the variables of interest were subjected to linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explained the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the confidence interval of the observed curve were estimated. The trend curve was chosen in accordance with the regression estimates.

Outcomes

It was found that all dependent variables tended to decrease over time in a quadratic fashion, except for the new cases variable. In general, the R2 and MAPE estimates are satisfactory, except for the variable number of PCR tests per day.

Conclusions

Gradual and cautious steps should be taken before ending mandatory confinement. In the current de-escalator, daily PCR tests should be increased, maintaining vigilance on indicators of incidence, prevalence, and positivity of PCR tests. Evidence suggests with some degree of confidence that mandatory confinement could be safely lifted as of August 30, 2020. Long-term preparations must be made to contain future waves of new cases.

COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 27: Fortnightly reporting period ending 11 October 2020

Nationally, there was a continuing downward trend in notifications of COVID-19. The daily average number of cases for this reporting period was 14 compared to an average of 23 cases per day in the previous fortnight. There were 192 cases of COVID-19 and 23 deaths this fortnight, bringing the cumulative case count to 27,344 and 898 deaths. While the majority of cases in this reporting period were from Victoria (60%; 116/192), there continues to be a decrease in cases in this state resulting from public health interventions. During this fortnight, 66% (127/192) of all cases were reported as locally acquired, with the majority reported from Victoria (108/127). The highest proportion of overseas-acquired cases was reported in New South Wales (75%; 38/51), followed by Western Australia (22%; 11/51). Although testing rates declined, they remain high overall at 9.2 tests per week per 1,000 persons. There was variability in the testing rate by jurisdiction, with testing rates depending on the epidemic context. The overall positivity rate for the reporting period was 0.05%, with Victoria reporting a positivity rate of 0.08% for this reporting period. In all other jurisdictions the positivity rate was ≤ 0.06%.

COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 29: Fortnightly reporting period ending 8 November 2020

Nationally, there was a continuing downward trend in notifications of COVID-19. The daily average number of cases for this reporting period was nine, compared to an average of 14 cases per day in the previous fortnight. There were 123 cases of COVID-19 and two deaths this fortnight, bringing the cumulative case count to 27,743 and 904 deaths. New South Wales reported the highest proportion of cases this fortnight (56%; 69/123), the majority of which were overseas acquired (54). Locally-acquired cases accounted for 15% (18/123) of all cases reported this fortnight. Victoria has seen a continuing decline of cases: at the end of this reporting period, 10 days had passed since the last locally-acquired case was reported in this jurisdiction. Testing rates increased during the reporting period and remain high overall at 11.0 tests per week per 1,000 persons. There was variability in the testing rate by jurisdiction, with testing rates depending on the epidemic context. The overall positivity rate for the reporting period was 0.03%, with the Northern Territory reporting a positivity rate of 0.12% for this reporting period. In all other jurisdictions the positivity rate was ≤ 0.06%.