The Association of Acute Watery Diarrhea in Iranian Pilgrims of Iraq with Cholera Cases in Iranians

Background

Despite the advances in the control of infectious diseases like cholera, they can potentially cause epidemics, especially in mass gathering events. One of the most important countries on the walking way of the Arbaeen religious event is Iran, which requires health system preparedness. The aim of this study was to predict the cholera epidemic in Iran by using the syndromic surveillance system of Iranian pilgrims in Iraq.

Methods

The data of the Iranian pilgrims with acute watery diarrhea in Iraq during the Arbaeen religious event and the confirmed cholera cases of pilgrims after returning to Iran were analyzed. We used the Poisson regression model of the relationship between the numbers of cases to evaluate acute watery diarrhea and cholera. Spatial statistics and hot spot analysis were used to identify the provinces with the highest incidence. SPSS software Version 24 was used for statistical analysis.

Results

The frequency of acute watery diarrhea cases was 2232 and the frequency of cholera in pilgrims after returning to Iran was 641. The results of spatial analysis for acute watery diarrhea cases showed a high number of acute watery diarrhea cases in the Khuzestan and Isfahan provinces, located in hot spots. Using Poisson regression, the relationship between the number of acute watery diarrhea reported in the syndromic surveillance system and the number of cholera cases was confirmed.

Conclusion

The syndromic surveillance system is useful to predict the outbreak of infectious diseases in large religious mass gatherings.

Risk Assessment of Arbaeen Mass Gathering in the Covid-19 Pandemic

Introduction

Arbaeen is a religious ceremony held annually with the participation of a large number of pilgrims. During the pandemic of Covid-19, a mass gathering of Arbaeen pilgrims can strengthen the transmission of this disease and put more pressure on the health care system of countries. The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of Arbaeen ceremony in the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021.

Materials and methods

A mixed method was performed to perform the study using qualitative and quantitative methods. A national risk assessment tool was used that consisted of hazard identification and assessment, scenario development, exposure assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk estimation. The national risk assessment tool was completed through a focused group discussion and the opinions of 20 representatives of the health system and the level of risks were estimated. Data were collected, analyzed, and integrated by the research team.

Results

Based on the results of risk matrix analysis, factors such as the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, the probability of exposure to a new variant of COVID-19, the probability of arrival of a new variant of COVID-19 to the country, the probability of increasing referrals to healthcare facilities (score 16), the probability of getting respiratory diseases, and the environmental contamination (score 12) occupied the red area of the matrix and were found to have the highest risk (unbearable risk), that needs immediate action.

Conclusion

Preparing for a mass gathering such as Arbaeen is very important in order to reduce the risk of communicable disease, and the first step in improving preparedness is risk assessment and its continuity in the various stages of the ceremony. Therefore, policy makers and planners of such events should conduct risk assessments with the participation of local and national public health authorities regularly.

Health Risks, Preventive Behaviours and Respiratory Illnesses at the 2019 Arbaeen: Implications for COVID-19 and Other Pandemics

COVID-19 poses grave challenges for mass gatherings. One of the world’s largest annual gatherings, Arbaeen, occurs in Iraq. We studied respiratory symptoms and risk and protective factors using representative sampling of Arbaeen pilgrims in 2019 to inform prevention of COVID-19 transmission. Structured sampling was used to recruit walking pilgrims. A questionnaire asked about respiratory symptoms, risk, and preventive factors, including hygiene-related resources of toilet facilities. The commonest symptom reported by the 1842 participants (63.3% male, 36.7% female) was cough (25.6%). Eating in mawkibs (rest areas) with indoor kitchens and drinking only packaged water were associated with lower risk of cough (AOR = 0.72, CI = 0.56–0.94; AOR = 0.60; CI = 0.45–0.78, p < 0.05). Facemask use was associated with increased risk of cough (AOR = 2.71, CI = 2.08–3.53, p < 0.05). Handwashing was not protective against cough, or against (one or more of) cough, fever, or breathlessness in multivariate analysis. Toilet facilities often lacked running water (32.1%) and soap (26.1%), and had shared hand towels (17%). To reduce risk of respiratory infections including COVID-19 during Arbaeen or other mass gatherings, needs include running water, soap, and hygienic hand drying options or hand sanitiser. Education on proper handwashing and facemask approaches and monitoring around food preparation and eating spaces are needed.

Arbaeen public health concerns: A pilot cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Arbaeen is an annual religious procession in Iraq with an estimated 17-20 million participants. Public health risks associated with such a mass gathering can be serious at both local and global levels. This is the first quantitative examination of risk factors for, and symptoms of, infectious disease among Arbaeen participants.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted of a convenience sample of 191 Arbaeen participants in 2017. Interviewers administered a structured questionnaire. Questions included food sources, preventive measures used and symptoms of infectious diseases during the procession.

RESULTS

Data were collected for 191 participants (143 males, 58 females). The most prevalent symptoms were respiratory (runny nose: 22.6%, cough: 22.5%). Diarrhoea was reported by 12.6% of participants, with a strong association with high-income country origin and eating (commercial) street food (odds ratios 6.1 and 4.1, respectively, p < 0.05). All symptoms investigated, except breathlessness, were more prevalent in high-income country participants (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Street food and high-income country origin were independent risk factors for respiratory or gastrointestinal infection symptoms in this sample of Arbaeen participants. However, these results cannot be generalised due to possible selection bias. Further studies are required to inform policy development and health system preparedness to reduce Arbaeen-associated health risks.

Qualitative study of health system preparedness for traumatic incidents in a religious mass gathering

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Traumatic incidents may occur during religious mass gatherings. A lack of preparedness by the health system to respond to traumatic incidents may increase the mortality rate. This study investigated the factors that affect the preparedness of a health system to respond to traumatic incidents, and we provide appropriate suggestions for improving the response to such incidents during religious mass gatherings.

METHODS

A qualitative research method was used with a conventional content analysis approach. In total, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted employing the content analysis method. The data were analyzed based on the means of the meaning units, condensed meaning units, sub-themes, themes, and codes.

RESULTS

Four main categories and nine sub-categories emerged from the data: factors that increased or decreased the occurrence of incidents (with three sub-categories comprising risk perception and fatalism, pilgrims' responses to incidents, and health system response to traumatic events); medical infrastructure (with two sub-categories comprising medical infrastructure in the host country and medical structures in border cities); organizational resource category (with two sub-categories comprising manpower, and equipment and facilities); and coordination of responsible organizations (with two sub-categories comprising inter-organizational coordination and inter-agency collaboration). All of the data were extracted from the experiences of the participants.

CONCLUSION

Similar to other mass gatherings, Arbaeen requires multi-sectoral and international planning, organizing, and management. The key factors that could improve the preparedness to respond to traumatic events in Arbaeen include training, increasing the perception of risk, changing the attitudes and behavior of pilgrims, developing a national strategic plan of the health system preparedness for policymakers, and implementing scenario-based exercises for executives.